Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

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Snapshot 2

September 19, 2008

Snapshot 2

Will They Come?

In the 2000 and 2004 elections, the word in advance of election day was that "young people" were going to come out in record numbers.

The total number of voters grew between the two elections from 104,000,000 to 122,000,000. However, the percentage of those between the ages of 18-29, as a percentage of the total electorate, did not grow. There was, however, growth in the percentage of the vote that was provided by those 45 years of age and older.

Furthermore, the percentage of those 18-19 years of age who voted in 2000 and 2004 (17%) was substantially less than their percentage of the adult population (22%), while those 30 years of age and older contributed to the electorate in numbers greater than their share of the adult population. Whether or not they come out in increased numbers could be particularly important to the Obama campaign.

In the August 2008 NBC/WSJ survey Obama led McCain by 60% -34% among 18-29 year olds. In 2004, John Kerry captured this age group by 54%- 45%, and in 2000 George Bush and Al Gore, split the vote, 48%-40%.

The participation of African Americans in 2000 (10%) and 2004 (11%), was closer to their share of the adult population (12%) than among those in the 18-29 year age range. However, given that African Americans are supporting Obama 88%-4% (NBC/WSJ) as compared to 88%-11% in 2004 and 90% to 11% in 2000, it is another potentially rich target for the Obama campaign.



Are They Interested In The Election?

In August, 18-29 year olds were less interested in the election (51%) (9 or 10, on scale of 10) than they were in August 2004 (58%). However, by September interest had grown to 64%, slightly ahead of where it was in 2004.

Among African Americans, 93% showed a high interest in the current election, as compared to 80% who expressed that view in 2004.

Aug-08 Aug-04 Sep-08 Sep-04
Total 73% 73% 79% 78%
18-29 51% 58% 64% 61%
30-44 72% 67% 79% 74%
45-59 79% 79% 84% 82%
60+ 81% 83% 83% 84%
African American 86% n/a 93% 80%




Looking At The Last 4 Presidential Elections And The Status Of The States Today

Looking at the last 4 Presidential elections, here is a summary of the results in terms of Democrat vs Republican.

There are 135 electoral votes in the States won by the Republicans in each of the last 4 elections.
  • Virginia in play
There are 64 electoral votes in States won by the Republicans in each of the last 3 elections.
  • Colorado, Florida in play
There are 75 electoral votes in States won twice by the Democrats and twice by Republicans in the last 4 elections.
  • Nevada, Ohio in play
There are 16 electoral votes in the States won by Democrats 3 of the last 4 elections.
  • New Hampshire, New Mexico in play
There are 248 electoral votes in the States won by Democrats in each of the last 4 elections.
  • Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan in play





The Potential

There is considerable potential in the States that are in play to increase the size and composition of the electorate. As an example, consider the state of Ohio. There are:
  • 2,057,000 unregistered persons of adult age
  • 354,000 unregistered 18-24 year olds
  • 607,000 students on university/college campuses
  • 270,000 unregistered African Americans
A second example, Michigan:
  • 1,499,000 unregistered persons of adult age
  • 283,000 unregistered 18-24 year olds
  • 621,000 students on university/college campuses
  • 270,000 unregistered African Americans





A big part of the battle to increase the size and composition of the electorate will be over by October 7th. That is the date by which 10 of the 13 States will close the voter registration rolls for this election. In 2 of the States, the rolls close on October 15, and in the 13th, on October 25.





Will They Come?

Scattered announcements as to the size of increases in the electorate suggest that voter registration is growing in many of the target States.

Washington Watch bets that young people of both primary political faiths will come out in record numbers, with Democrats having an advantage. WW also bets that African Americans will also turn out in record numbers.



The Match Race

The advantage in national polls that McCain has enjoyed since the Republican convention appears to have come to an end. In national surveys (not including tracking surveys) taken among likely voters from 9/11-16 Obama has a lead of about 4 points.



Satisfaction With America's Governance Is In The Tank

Satisfaction with American's governance is now at 26%, down from 59% in early 2002. The last time satisfaction was this low was in mid-1972. This number is likely driven by the President's job approval rating of 31%, and the 18% job approval rating of the Congress. [Gallup 9/8-11/08]



Who Won The Battle Of The "Mentions"?

The Dow Jones Insight-2008 Presidential Election Media Pulse reflects mentions of the candidates in both mainstream and social media sources. Sources include more than 6,000 newspapers, wires, magazines, radio, and TV transcripts, and more than 13,000 current-awareness news Web sites. Social media sources include 2 million of the most influential blogs and more than 60,000 message boards.

Obama McCain
Mentions August 24-29  54,624 36,771
Mentions August 31-September 5 34,802 45,448
Mentions 8/24-29 and 8/31-9/5 89,426 82,219


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