Snapshot 4:
The Final Act is Almost Over - The Final Scene Has Begun

The Common Wisdom

The "common wisdom" is that this election is Barack Obama's to lose.

A look at current national polling supports that "wisdom".



Obama's lead has been progressive.

In national polling from 8/15-20, the average of surveys conducted byCBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, Fox, LATimes/Bloomberg, and Gallop showed Obama with a 2.8 point lead.

Then, in polls taken from 9/15-22, by Hotline, Gallop, CNN,LATimes/Bloomberg, ABC, and NBC/WSJ Obama was leading by 6.0 points.

Can John McCain win? Of course he can. But if he does, it will be an upset the likes of which has not been seen in modern national elections. The only circumstance that comes close is Ronald Reagan leap-frogging Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Tracking the Presidential Campaign

A number of organizations maintain daily tracking polls. While some knowledgeable sources question the reliability of these surveys, they are the best way we have of tracking the election on a "daily" basis.

WW has chosen to follow the Gallop, Hotline/Diego, and WashingtonPost/ABC tracking polls. Gallop and Hotline surveys accumulate 3 days worth of interviews; WP/ABC accumulates 4 days of interviews. The date in the chartbelow is the last day on which interviews were conducted for that particular result. Gallop accumulates 2700 interviews (margin of error +/- 2 points). Hotline/Diegoaccumulates 900 interviews (margin of error +/- 3.3 points). Washington Post/ABC accumulates 4 days of interviews (margin of error +/- 3.9 points) [RV -registered voters; LV - Likely voters- based on respondents' professed intention to vote, [O - Obama; M - McCain]



The Electoral College

A review of the electoral vote over the past 4 Presidential elections provides a basis for the reality that John McCain has a higher hill to climb than Barack Obama.

135 electoral votes - Republican won these 16 States in last 4 elections

• 10/21/08
• 12 states Solid McCain
• 1 states Lean Obama
• 1 state Leans McCain
• 2 states Even

64 electoral votes - Republican won these 5 States in 3 of last 4 elections

• 1 state Solid McCain
• 1 state Lean McCain
• 1 state Lean Obama
• 2 state Even

75 electoral votes - Republicans and Democrats each won these 8 states in 2 of last 4 elections; Republicans won all these states in last 2 elections4 states Solid McCain

• 4 states Solid McCain
• 1 state Leans McCain
• 1 state Leans Obama
• 2 states Even

16 electoral votes - Democrat won these 3 states in 3 of last 4 elections

• 1 state Solid Obama
• 2 states Lean Obama

248 electoral votes - Democrates won these 18 states + D.C. in last 4 elections

• 18 states + DC solid Obama

Obama is challenging McCain in States with 39 electoral votes, out of the 135 which Republicans won in the last 4 elections.

McCain is not challenging Obama in any of of the States of the 248 electoral voes that Democrats won in the last 4 elections.

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Various news organizations maintain electoral vote counts that are perodically reassessed and updated. Each organization has its own formula for deciding which candidate will receive a State's electoral votes. The chart below summarizes a number of those reports as of October 27, 2008.

This is the first time that all of these organizations have shown Obama with enough electoral votes to be elected.

(WW has taken the liberty of lumping together firm and leaning counts to the extent those categories are used by a given organization.)



Previous Elections and Results

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Seniors Come Around to Obama

Over the last two months, those 18-29 years of age have increased their support for Obama over McCain, and those 65 and over have come around to Obama.



How Many Will Come to the Election?

How many Americans will have cast their ballot for President when the close on November 4th? In 1992, 7% of voters voted early. 12 years later, in 2004, that number had grown to just over 20%. Gallup reports that 11% of registered voters have already voted this year. In Georgia, more folks have already voted than cast ballots in that state in the 2004 Presidential race.

Huge increases in early voters are being experienced in most States that provide for early voting. What there is no way to know is whether this increase signals an increase in total turnout or is simply the result of folks deciding to stand in line now rather than on election day.

Over the last 10 Presidential elections the average increase in the number of votes cast from one election to the next has been 6.2%. However, if you take out the two elections in which the number of votes cast actually fell from the preceding election, 1988 and 1996, than the average increase is 9.2%.

If the 9.2% holds in this election, which could well be the minimum increase, at least 133,500,000 will have cast ballots. It could well exceed that number.

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The Money Game

When Obama decided to forgo the Federal grant in the general election, questions were raised as to whether he had made the right decision.

While political party spending is not quite as valuable as dollars in a candidate's campaign account, those funds can be used very effectively. In the discussion below they are treated together.

On September 1st:



Added during the month of September:



Added during October 1-15:



The Obama campaign raised $5,000,000 per day during September. It has roughly half that amount on each of the first 15 days of October.

The McCain campaign is limited by what the RNC can raise. The RNCreports raising $15,000,000 in the first half of October. The DNC reported raising $17,000,000, effectively off setting all of what the RNC raised and then some.

It is WW's prediction that, by election day, the Obama campaign + the DNCwill have had available for the general election $125-150,000,000 more than the McCain campaign + the RNC.

Obama made the right call in deciding not to accept Federal funds in thegeneral election. In taking Federal funds, McCain also made the right call. It is unlikely he could have raised sufficient funds in the time allowed to exceed the$84,000,000 Federal grant.

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If Barack Obama is elected President on November 4th, which seems increasingly likely, there will be an unlimited amount of commentary on how he did it. And why McCain lost. This is WW's view.

1) There is something about Obama that caught the imagination of a whole lot of Americans.

2) The more potential voters came to know John McCain the less they were attracted to him as a possible President.

3) Obama and his team ran an exceptional campaign. Looking at it from the outside and observing results, it is the kind of campaign that those of us who have been involved in the past have always dreamed about. Stumbles along the way did not pull them off their game plan. The same people are in charge of the campaign today as were in charge on the first day. And I doubt that there has been a campaign with less internal drama.

4) The McCain campaign went through a series of ups and downs and changes. The overall campaign plan was not obvious. The theme seemed to change from week to week and month to month. For a period of time one needed a score card to keep track of who was in charge.

To be sure, McCain was running against a tide not of his own making. It appears that the campaign may have bought into the idea that folks who went with Hillary Clinton against Obama would consider voting for McCain on cultural grounds. That is not happening.

5) Obama's success at fundraising and his decision not to take Federal funds in the general election gave him an important advantage throughout the long campaign.

6) McCain's decision to stick with Federal funding, which may have been the only realistic option open to him, resulted in his campaign operating at a substantial financial disadvantage.

7) Obama's principal competitors in the primary and the general election were not well served by their campaigns.

8) John McCain forgot who he was, and his stature and attractiveness deteriorated as the campaign wore on. Whether it was admitting that he knew little about the economy when it was destined to be the most important issue of the campaign, or questions about his judgement when it came to selecting a running mate, McCain's decisions did not accrue to his benefit.

9) The loss of support for President Bush and his Administration provided a convenient backdrop for Obama's message of change. This situation was compounded by the meltdown in the structure of the financial system, for which the President is held accountable by Americans in greater numbers that any other cause, including Wall Street behavior.

10) McCain showed a temperament that does not encourage confidence in how he would act as a leader.

11) Early-on Obama drew the attention of an important constituency. That attention turned to support and a desire to see him elected. That constituency served him well, first in the primary and then in the general election. The myriad pollsters, who measure the support of various groups, do not even attempt to assess the feelings of this constituency.

John McCain was a favorite of this constituency for many years. But something changed, perhaps in who they came to see McCain to be, or perhaps they were just fickle.

The constituency in question? The media. Did it involve every member of that group or every communications outlet? Of course not. But the preponderance of the media essentially adopted Obama and supported his campaign. Obama offered the chattering class an idea they could adopot.

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About Sarah Palin

It is important to remember that Governor Palin did not pick herself to be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee. Even if, as some suggest, she was quietly campaigning for the job, to the extent she is not equipped for the job, it says much more about McCain than it does about Palin.

It is hard to remember a circumstance in which a candidate of this consequence has been so ill-served.

While WW is hardly an expert on women's fashions, this is an era in which big time designers are selling their designs through stores at which an average person can afford to shop. Spending upwards of $150,000 on the wardrobe of Palin and her family is just plain nuts.

Why do you put Palin on "Saturday Night Live," when the show has been drawing record audiences making a caricature of her? Are American voters now casting their ballots on whether their candidates are good sports?

Some of the questions that Palin missed in early interviews suggest that she did not get some of the most basic of briefings.

Why did the campaign wait so long to have her talk about a subject on which she could reach the hearts of so many parents with challenged children?

The story of what has happened to Palin since she was selected is not positive.

By every measurement, Palin's image has fallen, dramatically, since she was introduced to the greater public at the Republican Convention, with a speech that can only be described as a tour de force.



As a comparison, Joe Biden was viewed unfavorably by 14% after the Democratic Convention and on 10/23, while favorable opinions of him rose from post-convention to 50% on 10/23. [WashPost/ABC]

And, in the CBS/NYT surveys of 9/24 and 10/19, Palin was first viewed unfavorably by 29% and then by 41%.

Palin was viewed as not qualified to be President by 49% on 9/22 and by 55% on 10/20. [NBC/WSJ]

Yet, there is little doubt that Palin did resolve any misgivings that the conservative base of the Republican Party had about wholeheartedly supporting John McCain.

Governor Sarah Palin's first 15 minutes is about to come to an end. But the end of this campaign will no mark the last time that those who live in the lower 48 or Hawaii will hear from or about here.

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2008 Congressional Campaigns

U.S. Senate

• Democrats 49
• Republicans 49
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 35 Senate elections (12 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)

In the chart below WW is pushing each race, as far as possible, in making a final cut on the Senate races for 2008.

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The U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 236 (includes 1 vacancy)
• Republicans 199

While it may not appear from the chart below that all that much is going on, the anecdotal information suggests otherwise.

WW's best guess at the moment: 23 - 25 Democratic pickups.

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If Other Countries Could Vote for U.S. President

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About Cellphones

WW has received a number of questions about whether current survey samples may understate young people, because so many of them are only available by cellphone. U.S. Government surveys estimate that the number of cellphone-only adults at this time is about 17%. As you would guess, a substantial number of these adults are under in the 18-29 age group.

It is possible to include cellphone-only users in surveys.

At least at the moment, landline-only surveys produce approximately the same results as surveys that combine landlines and cellphones. However, surveys conducted only on cellphones demonstrate that these users are substantially more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. For that reason, in the current setting they show greater support for Obama over McCain than landline-only or combined landline/cellphone samples. This result is driven by the preponderance of young people in the cellphone-only universe.

If you want to pursue this question, WW suggests that you go to the internet site for Pew Research Center and read two reports:

"The Impact of 'Cell-onlys' on Public Opinion Polling" (1/31/08)

"Cell Phones and the 2008 Vote: An Update" (9/23/08)