In this Washington Watch snapshot:

• State of the Nation
• President Obama
• Congress
• Looking Ahead to 2016 – Contest for President

[During this election year, the Washington Watch will periodically come out in a short form. This is the first short form version. ]

A page-by-page printable version of this snapshot is also available here.

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State of the Nation

70% of respondents say that the country is on the wrong track. 20% say the country is on the right track. This is the highest “wrong track” number found by the NBC/WSJ since August 2014. [NBC/WSJ 12/9]

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75% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the nation is being governed and 69% are at least somewhat angry with the way things are going in the U.S.

There is little difference between men and women or by age as to the level of dissatisfaction. Those who live in the Midwest (82% dissatisfied) and in rural areas (80% dissatisfied) are somewhat more dissatisfied than those who live in the rest of the country.

While 92% of Republicans are dissatisfied with the way we are being governed, only 59% of Democrats hold that view.

97% of those who support Trump are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and 91% are at least somewhat angry with the direction of the country. [CNN/ORC 12/21]

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President Obama

In late December, President Obama’s approval rating among those 18 years and older was at 44% in Gallup and 41% in Reuters. His disapproval rating was 52% and 51% respectively. [Gallup and Reuters 12/30/15]

Here are other approval scores going back 3 years.

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48% have a favorable view of Obama; 50% have an unfavorable opinion of the President. [CNN/ORC 12/21]

73% of Americans would prefer that the next President take a different approach than Barack Obama. 25% would like the next President to take the same approach as Obama. [NBC/WSJ 12/9]

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78% believe that Obama’s Presidency has created significant changes in the country. They are divided 37% to 37% as to whether those changes have been for the better or for the worse. [CNN/ORC 12/21]

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Congress

Currently, 85% of Americans disapprove of the job being done by Congress, while 14% approve. 92% of those 65 years of age and older disapprove of the job being done by Congress, while only 77% of those 18-34 share this view. [CNN/ORC 12/21]

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President

Americans are equally divided on whether they would like a Republican or a Democrat to be elected President. 44% of Americans would prefer a Republican and 44% would prefer a Democrat.

Equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans said they would plan to vote in their Party’s primary, if there was a primary in their State. 33% said they would vote in the Republican primary and 33% said they would vote in the Democratic primary. An equal number of 33% said they would wait for the general election before they voted. [NBC/WSJ 12/9]

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The number of registered voters who say they cannot see themselves as supporting one candidate or another for President ranges from 51% to 66%.

68% say they cannot see themselves as supporting Huckabee; 66% say that about Trump, Paul and Bush; 62% say that about Christie; 55% say that about Clinton, Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina; 52% say that about Sanders and Kasich; and 51% say that about Rubio and O’Malley. [NBC/WSJ 12/9]

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What it means I do not know, but so far it appears that Donald Trump is the only candidate for President in 2016 who has a coloring book produced in his honor. I received my copy from my friend Mike in San Francisco.

THE TRUMP COLORING BOOK contains a series of drawings of Trump as various historical and current figures, and in various places. The book, by M.G. Anthony, is published by Post Hill Press of New York, and is available on Amazon for $10.51.

The following are a series of charts that provide basic information about the 2016 election and the candidates.

1. The list of current candidates/those who have left the field /those who chose not to run

2. Select national polls

3. Select state polls

4. The money

5. Primary/caucus dates and state delegate numbers and allocation

6. The Primary Debates

7. The conventions

1. The current list of candidates

And then there were 12. 12 is the number of candidates still seeking the Republican nomination for President. George Pataki was the fifth Republican to abandon the race.

Three Democrats continue to seek the Democratic nomination. Three others have abandoned the race.

On The Field – Candidate has filed with the Federal Election Commission; has announced that he or she is running; has announced that they are going to commence a formal candidacy; or has been particularly active in raising money or campaigning.

Fallen by the Wayside –Candidate has been on the field, but has now left.



Fallen by the Wayside

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2. Selected polls, Early December through the 3rd week of December.

The following is a selection of national polls from the first three weeks of December.

During this period Hillary Clinton has had leads ranging from 16 points to 31 points over the other Democratic candidates.

Trump has had leads of 5 to 23 points.

Republicans



Democrats



Source: Real Clear Politics

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3. Select state polls

(Republican lists include only those candidates scoring 5% or better.)

As of mid-December, Cruz is leading by 9 points in Iowa. Trump is leading by 19 points in New Hampshire and 16 points in South Carolina.

As of the same time period, Clinton is leading by 9 points in Iowa and 36 points in South Carolina. Sanders leads by 14 points in New Hampshire.





New Hampshire





South Carolina

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4. The Money

The official reports of money raised and spent in the 4th quarter by candidates, PACs, etc., are not due until January 31, 2016. The information below is derived from news reports based on statements by certain campaigns or other less formal sources.

Hillary Clinton – Her campaign raised $55 million in the 4th quarter. Of that amount $37 million is specificallyfor use in the primary. Overall she has raised $112 million in primary election funds for the year. She has about $38 million in the bank.

Bernie Sanders – His campaign raised $33 million in the 4th quarter. He has raised $73 million to date. He has about $28.4 million in the bank. He has 2.5 million contributors, at an average contribution of $27.16.

Ted Cruz – His campaign raised $19 million in the 4th quarter and $45 million for the year.

Ben Carson – His campaign raised $23 million in the 4th quarter.

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5. Primary/Caucus dates and state delegate numbers and allocation

Included are the number of delegates assigned to each Party in each State and how the delegates will be allocated. The DNC mandates a proportional allocation for all States. The RNC allows States more flexibility.

Definitions for Republican Allocation of Delegates:

Conv: State will bind delegates to the national convention at a State/territory convention. Other conventions will leave the delegation unbound.

Prop: State will proportionally allocate delegates based either on the Statewide primary/caucus vote or on the combination of the Statewide and Congressional district votes.

Prop w/Trigger: State will follow above proportional rules, but allows for a winner-take-all allocation if a candidate wins a majority of the vote Statewide or at the Congressional district level.

Hybrid: State will follow some form of winner-take-most plan (i.e., winner-take- all by Congressional district) or directly elects delegates on the primary ballot.

Winner-take-all: State will award all delegates to the plurality winner of the primary or caucus.

The following is the list of primaries and caucuses through March 15, 2015.

February

Feb 1:
- Iowa caucuses - (52D - Prop) (30R - Prop)

Feb 9:
- New Hampshire primary - (32D - Prop) (23R - Prop)

Feb 20:
- Nevada Dem caucuses - (43D - Prop)
- South Carolina GOP primary - (50R - Hybrid)

Feb. 23:
- Nevada GOP caucuses - (30R - Prop)

Feb 27:
- South Carolina Dem primary - (59D - Prop)

March

March 1 (Super Tuesday):
- Alabama - (58D - Prop) (50R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Alaska GOP - (28R - Prop)
- Arkansas - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Colorad - caucuses - (79D - Prop) (37R - Conv)
- Georgia - (116D - Prop) (76R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Massachusetts - (116D - Prop) (42R - Prop)
- Minnesota caucuses - (93D - Prop) (38R - Prop)
- Oklahoma - (42D - Prop) (43R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Tennessee - (76D - Prop) (58R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Texas - (252D - Prop) (155R - Propw/Trigger)
- Vermont - (26D - Prop) (16R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Virginia - (110D - Prop) (49R - Prop)

March 5:
- Kansas caucuses - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop)
- Kentucky GOP caucuses - (45R - Prop)
- Louisiana - (58D - Prop) (47R - Prop)
- Maine GOP caucuses - (23R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Nebraska Dem caucuses - (30D - Prop)

March 6:
- Maine Dem caucuses - (30D - Prop)

March 8:
- Hawaii GOP caucuses - (19R - Prop)
- Idaho - GOP primary - (32R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Michigan - (148D - Prop) (59R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Mississippi - (41D - Prop) (40R - Prop)

March 12:
- Washington, DC (GOP convention) - (19R - Prop)

March 15:
- Florida - (246D - Prop) (99R - Winner take All)
- Illinois - (182D - Prop) (69R - Hybrid)
- Missouri - (84D - Prop) (52R - Hybrid)
- North Carolina - (121D - Prop) (72R - Prop)
- Ohio - (159D - Prop) (66R - Winner take All)
- Alaska Dem caucuses - (18D - Prop)
- Hawaii Dem caucuses - (33D - Prop)
- Washington Dem caucuses - (118D - Prop)

Sources: RNC website, Balletopedia, US Presidential Election News

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6. Presidential Primary Debates

Republicans

The Republican National Committee is currently planning to sanction at least twelve Presidential primary debates. Five have already been held in Ohio, California, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Current planned Republican primary debates:

1. Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – Completed

2. CNN, September 16, 2015, California- Completed

3. CNBC, October 28, 2015, Colorado - Completed

4. Fox Business, November 10, 2015, Wisconsin - Completed

5. CNN, December 15, 2015, Nevada - Completed

6. Fox Business News, January 13, 2016, South Carolina

7. Fox News, January 28, 2016, Iowa

8. ABC News, February 6, 2016, New Hampshire

9. CBS News, February 13, 2016, South Carolina

10. NBC/Telemundo, February 26, 2016, Texas

11. Fox News, March 2016, location TBD

12. CNN/Salem Radio, March, 2016, Florida

Polling before and after the 3rd, 4th and 5th Republican Debates

Source: RealClearPolitics

Democrats

There will be six Presidential primary debates. Three have already been held in Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

Current planned Democratic primary debates:

1. CNN, October 13, 2015, Nevada - Completed

2. CBS News, November 14, 2015, Des Moines, Iowa - Completed

3. ABC News, December 19, 2015, Manchester, New Hampshire

4. NBC News, January17, 2015, Charleston, South Carolina

5. Univision , February or March 2016, Miami, Florida

6. PBS, February or March 2016, Wisconsin

Polling before and after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Democratic Debates

The size of the television audience for each debate has steadily declined with the exception of the Republican debate on December 15th.

Republican - Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – 24 million viewers

Republican - CNN, September 16, 2015, California -23 million viewers

Democrat - CNN, October 13, 2015 – 15.8 million viewers

Republican – CNBC, October 28, 2015 – 14 million viewers

Republican – Fox Business News, November 10, 2015 – 13.5 million viewers

Democrat - CBS/WSJ, November 14, 2015 - 8.5 million viewers

Republican - CNN, December 15, 2015, Nevada – 18 million viewers

Democrat - ABC, December 19, 2015, New Hampshire – 6.7 million viewers

The Republican debates have drawn a total audience of 92.5 million viewers; an average of 18.4 million viewers. The Democratic debates have drawn 31 million viewers; an average of 10.3 million viewers.

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7. The Conventions

Republicans: July 18-21, Cleveland, Ohio

Democrats: July 25-28, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania