May 31, 2007 3:04 PM
2008 Congressional Elections
During 2006, the average Congressional job approval rating in the NBC/WSJ surveys was 24% approval and 63% disapproval. In its final survey before the election, job disapproval of the Congress reached 75%.For the 1st 3.5 months under the new Democratic control of the Congress there has been some improvement, but the Congress still has a long way to go. Its job approval stands at 31% and disapproval at 52% in the survey taken the 4th week in April.
In that same survey, 60% of respondents said that the Democrats had so far not brought much change either way, while 20% said they had brought the right kind of change, and 15% the wrong kind of change.
Interestingly, there has been a substantial drop in the number saying Democrats had brought the right kind of change. In the NBC/WSJ January survey, shortly after the Democrats had taken charge, 42% said they had brought the right kind of change.
In the most recent Gallup Poll (May 10-13) only 29% approve of the job that Congress is doing.
An average of a half dozen recent surveys shows that the Democrats have a lead of 52% to 41% in a generic Congressional vote.
The U.S. Senate
The Democrats control the Senate by a slim 51-49 margin. Their 5-person majority includes two Senators who describe themselves as Independents.One of the them, Bernie Saunders of Vermont, is often described as a socialist. But he votes with the Democrats on almost every issue, so for all practical purposes he is a Democrat.
The second Independent is Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Lieberman was the incumbent Democratic Senator from that State, who ran as an Independent in 2006, when the Democratic Party denied him its nomination. His dispute with the Party centered almost exclusively on his support for the President on the Iraq war. Republicans generally supported Lieberman in the election, and that, added to a core group of Democrats, resulted in his victory. Other than on organization of the body, Lieberman's vote with the Democratic caucus is less reliable.
It is too early in the cycle to accurately assess the prospects for the Democrats to increase their margin. At least at present, the prospects of the Republicans regaining control is marginal at best.
One current Republican seat, Colorado, is rated as a tossup because the incumbent is not standing for re-election. The State has been leaning Democratic in recent elections.
One incumbent Democrat, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, is considered vulnerable, given the continuing political unrest in that State following the devastating hurricanes. It is argued that a large number of her voters from New Orleans are now displaced, including some who have relocated to other States. The big question is whether folks who have lost their homes and community will bother to participate in the election.
Other Senate seats that might come into serious contention, "if," are:
- Arkansas - if Republican Mike Huckebee drops out of the Presidential races and decides to take on Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor.
- South Dakota - if incumbent Democrat Tom Johnson ends up not running for re-election.
- Virginia - if incumbent Republican John Warner decides not to seek reelection.
- New Mexico - if incumbent Republican Pete Dominici decides not to run or if he is found to have violated Senate ethics rules around the replacement of the U.S. attorney in that State.
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 49
- Republicans 49
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
| Safe Democratic (7) | Leaning Democratic (4) | Toss-Up (2) | Leaning Republican (5) | Safe Republican (15) |
| Delaware Illinois Massachusetts Michigan New Jersey Rhode Island West Virginia |
Arkansas Iowa Montana South Dakota |
Colorado Louisiana |
Maine Minnesota New Hampshire North Carolina Oklahoma |
Alabama Alaska Georgia Idaho Kansas Kentucky Mississippi Nebraska New Mexico Oregon South Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia Wyoming |
| Democrats | Republicans | Ind | |
| Seats not up in 2006 | 37 | 28 | 2 |
| Safe in 2006 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Leaning in 2006 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Total | 48 | 48 | 2 |
| Toss-Ups | 2 (1R/1D) |
The U.S. House of Representatives
In the House the Democrats have a 233 to 202 margin, with 1 Democratic seat and 1 Republican seat currently vacant. It is too early to make a thorough assessment of what might happen in the 2008 election. However, the early view is that the Democrats could pick up additional seats. If that does occur, the principal driver will be that voters want to punish Republicans because of the Administration's policy on the war.The Cook Political Report show 2 open Democratic seats in 2008 and 8 potentially open seats. One the Republican side, there is 1 open seat and 12 potentially open seats.
