2008 Presidential Election

2008 marks the 55th quadrennial election for President and Vice President of the United States. Americans will elect the 44th President and 47th Vice President. This will be the 1st election since 1928 when there is no incumbent President seeking re-election or a Vice-President seeking to ascend to the Presidency.

3 of the 6 leading candidates for the office, 1 Republican and 2 Democrats, are members of the United States Senate. The last time a sitting Senator won the Presidency was in 1960.

The record for House members is worse. It has been 127 years since a sitting Member of the House was elected to the Presidency - James Garfield, the 20th President.

The Field

The field is pretty robust, with 10 Republicans and 8 Democrats having entered the race. And the field may not yet be complete. On the Republican side there are at least 2 possible additional entries, and 1 on the Democratic side. Of this group of possibles, the most likely additional entrant is Fred Thompson, a former Senator from Tennessee, and currently a prominent actor and commentator.

It remains to be seen whether the Green Party will enter a real candidate, and many folks are pressing the Mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, to run as an Independent.

Name	Talks About Running	Set Up Explore Committee	Announces Presidential Bid	Out of the Game
Republican
Brownback	X	12/4/06	12/20/07
Cox	X
Gilmore	X	1/9/07	1/9/07
Gingrich	X	(wait and see)
Giuliani	X	11/20/06
Hagel	X	(wait and see)
Huckabee	X	1/27/07	1/28/07
Hunter	X	1/12/07	1/25/07
McCain	X	11/15/06	11/15/06
Pataki	X	(wait and see)
Paul	X	1/11/07	3/12/07
Tancredo	X	1/16/07	4/2/07
Romney	X	1/3/07	1/3/07
Thompson, F	X	(wait and see)
Thompson, T	X	12/15/06	4/4/07
*****
Allen	X			No start
Frist	X			11/29/06
Keating	X			1/18/07
Santorum	X			No start
Independent
Bloomberg	X
Green Party
Nader	X
Democrat
Biden	X		1/7/07
Clark	X	(wait and see)
Clinton	X	1/20/07	1/22/07
Dodd	X		1/10/07
Edwards	X	1/3/07
Gore	X	(wait and see)
Gravel	X		4/4/06
Kucinich	X		12/29/06
Obama	X	1/16/07	2/10/07
Richardson	X	1/22/07	1/22/07
Sharpton	X	(wait and see)
*****
Daschle	X			No start
Bayh	X	12/3/06		12/16/06
Feingold	X			11/12/06
Kerry	X			1/24/07
Vilsack	X		11/9/06	2/23/07
Warner	X			10/12/06

Are there some aspects of the various Presidential candidates that could turn off some numbers of voters? Gallup inquired about this subject in two surveys this spring and here are the results:

• 41% would not vote for a person 72 years old


• 29% would not vote for someone has been married 3 times


• 22% won't vote for a Mormon


• 11% won't vote for a woman


• 5% won't vote for an African-American

At least that is what folks tell the pollsters

When asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of various current and potential candidates for President, here is how Americans responded in an USA Today / Gallup Poll in early May:

	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion	Never Heard Of
Rudy Giuliani	61	24	8	7
Hillary Clinton	50	47	3	0
Barack Obama	50	24	12	13
John McCain	50	30	10	10
Al Gore	49	43	8	0
John Edwards	49	31	9	9
Fred Thompson	27	11	12	50
Mitt Romney	24	22	15	39

Many of these candidates have more room to grow, either because they have never been heard of or folks know of them, but are not yet ready to express an opinion about them. Here is the same list ranked on the basis of the greatest number of No opinion/Never Heard Of responses:

	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion	Never Heard Of
Fred Thompson	27	11	12	50
Mitt Romney	24	22	15	39
Barack Obama	50	24	12	13
John McCain	50	30	10	10
John Edwards	49	31	9	9
Rudy Giuliani	61	24	8	7
Al Gore	49	43	8	0
Hillary Clinton	50	47	3	0

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A Few Questions:

• Will Obama be able to translate the outpouring of support that he has received in person and on the internet into an activated grass roots team?


• Will Romney be able to overcome concerns about his Mormon religious beliefs?


• Will Giuliani be able to hold onto core Republican support in the light of 3 marriages, an apparent estrangement from his children, his business dealings, his squirming about on abortion, and his positions on other social issues?


• Will Clinton find the voice to show the public her more personal side?


• Will McCain be able to overcome concerns about his age and loss of his maverick quality?


• Will Edwards be able to overcome the apparent inconsistencies of $400 hair cuts and working for a hedge fund that is into subprime loans?


• Will Gore, Fred Thompson, and Gingrich join the race?

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What Do We Want in Our Next President?

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In late March (Republican candidates) and early May (Democratic candidates) Gallup survey respondents from each political Party were asked to explain their reasons for supporting one or the other of the two front runners in their Party over the other front runner.

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The Primaries

The biggest change this year is the front loading of the primary/caucus election process.

In 2004, through the 1st Tuesday in February, 7 States had held their primaries and caucuses, and none of the States in that group were in the list of the 5 largest States by population.

In 2008, through the 1st Tuesday in February, at least 29 States will have held their primaries and caucuses, including all 5 of the largest States by population.

In her recent column in Politico, Elizabeth Wilner writes about the angst being expressed about the massing of early primaries. She wrote, "States with late primary dates have grown sick of being disenfranchised." And, "...the very understandable and healthy concept of voters wanting to play a bigger role than usual in the biggest race in history." She points out that, in 2004, John Kerry had clinched the nomination by the close of business by the 1st Tuesday in February. And, in 2000, when "six weeks separated Iowa and New Hampshire from the next round of Democratic contests," Gore had clinched the nomination before the polls opened for the 2nd round.

While folks will continue to complain about how bad the new calendar is, keep in mind that their opinions are not based on history or experience.

Another important element of this super, super Tuesday, February 5th, is early voting. Of the States that will hold primaries on or before February 5th , 14 of them permit "No Excuse required, early voting." For example, votes may be cast in California beginning on January 7th . In addition, all of the voting in Oregon, one of the early States, is by mail. There is little doubt that we will know the nominees of the Democratic and Republican Parties by the end of February 5, 2008.

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The Early Primary Returns

Before 2007 began, Hillary Clinton, in the Democratic primary, and John McCain, in the Republican primary, were the putative favorites for the nomination.

4 months into the year, Barack Obama is proving to be a strong contender in the Democratic race, and John McCain is running a poor second to Rudy Giuliani in the Republican race.

National polls in primary campaigns can be misleading because they do not take into account what is happening in particular States. However, they are an indicator.

In the Democratic primary, over the 3-month period from mid-January to mid-April, Obama has moved up, while Clinton has been steady. Edwards has had some ups and downs, but, at the end of the 3-month period, he is slightly ahead of where he was in mid-January.

In a hypothetical 2-way race between Clinton and Obama, both candidates are just about where they were at the beginning of the year.

Democrats - Gallup
	5/4-6	4/13-15	4/2-4/5	3/23-3/25	1/12-1/14
Clinton	38	31	38	35	29
Obama	23	26	19	22	18
Edwards	12	16	15	14	13
Gore	14	15	14	17	11
Clinton	56	53	61	56	53
Obama	37	41	33	37	39

In the 4 earliest states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, Edwards leads in Iowa and Clinton in the other 3.



In the Republican primary during the same period, Giuliani grew some and McCain declined. No other Republican candidate has more than single digit support. The wild card is whether former Senator Fred Thompson decides to get into the race.

In a hypothetical 2-way race between Giuliani and McCain, Giuliani has grown and McCain slipped slightly.

Republicans - Gallup
	5/4-6	4/13-15	4/2-4/5	3/23-3/25	1/12-1/14
Giuliani	34	35	38	31	31
McCain	20	22	16	22	27
Romney	7	9	6	8	7
Gingrich	8	7	10	8	10
F. Thompson	13	10	10	12	n/a
Giuliani	56	57	57	54	50
McCain	38	39	38	39	42

In the 4 earliest states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, Giuliani leads in Iowa and Nevada, and McCain in the other 2.

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The Money Primary

On the overall numbers, Senator Hillary Clinton was the winner of the 1st "election" of the money primary, which ended on March 31st . A close second was Senator Obama, followed by Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

But the real winner, in the Democratic primary chase in particular, was Senator Obama. While Clinton raised $26,054,000, Obama was only a hair's breadth behind, with $25,709,000. John Edwards trailed, raising $14,000,000. "Everyone," with the possible exception of Obama, was surprised by the amount the Obama campaign raised.

Most notable is that Obama outraised Clinton by $5,600,000 in contributions that can be used in the primary. Nearly $7,000,00 of the total raised by Clinton can only be spent in the general election.

In reaching these totals, the Obama campaign received contributions from 104,000 donors, about half of whom contributed through the internet. The Clinton campaign claimed about 60,000 supporters.

While the amount that each candidate raised in the quarter is interesting, 1st the more important question is how much each candidate has available to spend at the beginning of the 2nd quarter.

The Clinton and Obama campaigns spent equal amounts in the 1st quarter. By that measure Obama should lead in cash-on-hand. However, Clinton ended up with $4,400,000 more cash-on-hand because she began the 2nd quarter with $22,400,000 net cash (cash minus debt). Obama had $18,100,000 at the beginning of the quarter, and Edwards started the 2nd quarter with $10,700,000 available.

The reason for Clinton's cash advantage is simple. Clinton transferred $10,000,000 from her just-completed Senate campaign to her Presidential account. Other Democratic and Republican candidates have also engaged in such transfers. [See note #2 in the chart at the end of this section.]

The Clinton campaign decided to actively raise primary and general election money at the same time from the outset, and sought contributions for both elections. Obama supporters could also opt to contribute to the primary and general, but the campaign did not push that alternative.

Based on an Opinion rendered by the Federal Election Commission to the Obama campaign, a candidate for President may solicit funds for the general election and still retain the option of taking the Federal grant of roughly $85,000,000.

After securing the nomination, a candidate may decide whether to go with private financing or take the general election grant. However, if he or she has spent any of the general election money, that option disappears. If a candidate opts for Federal financing in the general, all of the funds raised for the general must be returned to the contributors.

It will be interesting to see how hard the Clinton campaign will push the general election contribution option now that she trails in the primary money derby.

In the Republican money race, Romney raised $20,983,000, to capture 1st place, running nearly $5,000,000 ahead of Giuliani's $16,100,000. The big surprise of the Republican chase was the 3rd place finish of McCain, who raised only $13,680,000.

On the other hand, Romney spent $13,675,000, while Giuliani held his spending to $6,130,000. McCain sent $11,400,000 out the door.

As they headed into the 2nd quarter, Giuliani had the greatest amount of net cash, with $11,861,000 (including $2,000,000 transferred from his aborted 2000 U.S. Senate campaign), followed by Romney, with $9,514,000, whose total includes a $2,350,000 personal loan that he made to his campaign.

McCain was hurting, with only $3,368,000 on hand. He has subsequently revamped his fundraising operation. While the 2nd quarter fundraising/spending activity of all the campaigns is important, recovery is critical for McCain. As of this writing, the McCain campaign says it is meeting its fundraising goals for this quarter, and is working to get spending under control.

To put 1st quarter fundraising in some kind of perspective, WW looked back at the successful 1984 Mondale primary campaign. [Your editor was Treasurer of that campaign.] During the entire 19-month primary campaign, the Mondale campaign's total spending was $25,000,000, the maximum amount allowed for a campaign that accepted primary matching funds. Of that total, about $17,000,000 was raised by the campaign, and the balance came from the U.S. Treasury in matching funds.

The maximum allowable individual contribution was $1,000, as compared to the current $2,300.

With the simple application of inflation, that $25,000,000 campaign would cost $50,000,000 today. Several of these campaigns could well raise more than amount in the 1st six months of the current campaign.

[A detailed chart of primary fundraising follows. Please read the footnotes; they will explain why many of the numbers in this chart are different than those published in other media. WW believes that this is a more accurate reflection of fundraising and expenditure.]

Primary 2007-2008
Candidate	Contrib. Rec'd 1 Q & Before (1)	Total Contributions to Date (2)	Net Cash Available (3)	Total Spent (4)
Democrat
Clinton	26,054,000 (6)	36,054,000	22,446,000 (5)	6,643,000
Obama	25,709,000 (6)	25,709,000	18,093,000 (5)	6,745,000
Edwards	14,030,000	14,030,000	10,732,000	3,292,000
Dodd	4,044,000	8,783,000	7,482,000	1,313,000
Richardson	6,246,000	6,246,000	5,002,000	1,227,000
Biden	2,113,000	4,013,000	2,839,000	1,174,000
Kucinich
Gravel
Republican
Romney	20,983,000	23,333,000	9,514,000	13,675,000
Giuliani	16,078,000	18,028,000	11,861,000	6,130,000
McCain	13,680,000	14,730,000	3,368,000	11,402,000
Brownback	1,291,000	1,866,000	807,000	1,030,000
Tancredo	,186,000	1,256,000	560,000	711,000

(1) Includes contributions received before 1/1/07

• Giuliani - $1,307,000 (raised in 2006)
• McCain - $ 660,000 (raised in 2006)

(2) Includes:
- transfers from previous Senate or House Committees

• Clinton - $10,000,000
• Biden - $ 1,900,000
• Brownback - $ 575,000
• Dodd - $ 4,739,000
• Giuliani - $ 1,950,000
• McCain - $ 1,050,000
• Tancredo - $ 70,000

- loans guaranteed by candidate

• Romney - $ 2,350,000

(3) Net Cash = cash on hand minus debts owed by Committee + general election contributions that are escrowed (based on newspaper reports)

(4) Total Spent = operating expenditures + operating debt

(5) General Election Contributions deducted to arrive at net cash

• Clinton - $ 6,946,000
• Obama - $ 909,000

(6) Primary Contributions

• Clinton - $19,100,000
• Obama - $24,700,000

Any question that may exist as to whether Presidential candidates are likely to suffer voter irritation by not taking public funding seems to be decided on the side of not taking Federal funds.

56% think candidates for President should opt not to take public financing and spend whatever money they can raise on their own. [Gallup 4/07]

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The General Election

18 months from now and $1 billion dollars in campaign-related expenses (from 1/1/07) Americans will cast their votes for President.

To add an historical complication to the race for the Democrats, the last time that a Party won the Presidency in the next election after it took back the Congress in a mid-term election was 1920.

By 50% to 35% Americans would like to see the Democrats gain the Presidency in the next election. But that margin does not translate into an automatic Democratic victory, at least based on current matchups between major Democratic and Republican candidates. [These early matchups don't mean much, but they make good fodder for conversation.]

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