2008 Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton has consistently led the Democratic primary field since the 1st of the year. There has been no national poll in which she was not #1.

Here are Gallup surveys, at roughly mid-month since January.

---

In a mid-August Gallup poll, Hillary Clinton leads the field with 42%, followed by Barack Obama at 21%, John Edwards at 11%. 94% of Democrats say they are familiar enough with Clinton to rate her. 85% say that about John Edwards, and 84% about Barack Obama.

77% are familiar with all 3 candidates.  Among those Democrats that know all 3 of them, 43% support Clinton.  She garners 53% of the vote among Democrats who are not familiar Obama or Edwards or both.  [Gallup 8/07]

It seems likely that, short of some significant mistake on the part of one of the leading candidates, the relative positions of the candidates in national surveys will continue at least until the Iowa caucuses.

If another candidate, especially Obama, achieves a significant victory in Iowa, the national momentum of the race could well change.

---

There is a clear preference among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents for a candidate "who has a strong desire to change the system for getting things done in Washington" (73%) over a candidate that "has experience getting things done in the current system in Washington" (26%).

96% say that it is desirable that the next President have the characteristics to bring about change in Washington. However, 57% also say that about having a lot of experience in Washington.  [Gallup 8/07]

---

When it comes to the individual early State races, the current results are not that dissimilar to the national race. While in Iowa the #1 position has moved back and forth between Clinton and Edwards, and Obama is very much in the mix, at least at this stage, Clinton leads in most key races.

Among the 4 States authorized by the DNC to hold contests before February 5th, she has clear leads in 3 of 4.  In the 2 pre-February 5th outliers, Florida and Michigan, she has substantial leads in each.  And a quick look at a couple of large February 5th States, California and New Jersey, shows Clinton having commanding leads in both.

Here are the averages of polls in the aforementioned States, as compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.  Number in () is the number of surveys that are included in the average.

State	Date	Clinton	Edwards	Obama	Richardson
Iowa	8/17-29(4)	26	21	22	12
NH	8/9/-29(2)	37	14	20	8
Nev	8/14-16(1)	33	15	19	11
SC	8/20-29(3)	32	16	22	2
Mich	8/26-9/4(2)	42	15	21	3
Fla	8/10-13 (2)	42	14	22	-
Calif	7/30-8/12(2)	45	13	23	-
NJ	8/24-26(1)	49	8	22	-

---

The Delegate Path to Nomination

There are 4,360 delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, with 2,181 delegates required to secure the nomination.

If Florida and Michigan do "lose" their delegates as a result of conducting primary elections outside the National Party-determined window, the total number of delegates will be reduced to 3,994, and the number needed to be nominated is reduced to 1998.

Of the total delegates, 3512 are allocated based on primary and caucus events, while 848 are automatic and unpledged delegates [the so-called "super delegates"].

Pollster.com does an "analysis" of the number of delegates "won" by each candidate, based on the latest State polls (some owhich are quite old) and not allocating delegates from any State in which there are no polls.  [The analysis ostensibly follows the apportionment rules of the Democratic Party.]
As of September 2nd, that analysis shows Clinton - 1223; Obama - 676; Edwards - 473; and Richardson - 129.

Return to Home Page