September 8, 2007 7:28 PM
2008 Republican Primary
In much the way Clinton has done in the Democratic primary, Giuliani has led the Republican primary field since January. He has not been headed in any national poll during the period. Here are the Gallup surveys, at roughly mid-month, since January.| Giuliani | Thompson | Romney | McCain | |
| August | 32 | 19 | 14 | 11 |
| July | 30 | 20 | 8 | 16 |
| June | 28 | 19 | 7 | 18 |
| May | 29 | 12 | 8 | 23 |
| April | 35 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| March | 31 | 12 | 3 | 22 |
| February | 40 | -- | 5 | 24 |
| January | 31 | -- | 7 | 27 |
In the mid-August Gallup, Rudy Giuliani leads with 32%, followed by Fred Thompson at 22%, Mitt Romney at 14%, and John McCain at 11%.
There is less stability among the Republicans. 91% of Republicans are familiar with Giuliani, 87% with McCain, 64% with Romney, and 56% are familiar with Thompson.
Only 46% of Republicans are able to rate all 4 of the top candidates. Among this group Thompson leads Giuliani by 33% to 25%, followed by Romney and McCain. Among the larger group of Republicans (54%) who are not familiar with all 4 of the candidates, Giuliani leads with 38%, followed by McCain at 18%, Thompson at 12%, and Romney at 6%.
However, the Republican race has a different cast than the Democratic race when the individual States are reviewed.
Romney leads in 3 of the 4 States that are authorized before February 5th. Giuliani leads in 1.
When it comes to the 2 outlier States, Romney has a slight lead over Giuliani in Michigan, and Giuliani has a substantial lead in Florida.
Giuliani has strong leads in California and New Jersey.
There are no publicly available results from Wyoming, where the Republicans plan to hold a caucus on January 5th. Here are averages of polls in the aforementioned States as compiled by RealClearPolitics.com. The number in () reflects the number of surveys in the average.
| State | Date | Giuliani | McCain | Romney | Thompson |
| IA | 8/17-29(4) | 14 | 7 | 32 | 13 |
| NH | 8/9-29(2) | 22 | 12 | 30 | 10 |
| Nev | 8/14-16(1) | 18 | 8 | 28 | 18 |
| SC | 8/20-29(3) | 22 | 14 | 10 | 21 |
| Mich | 8/26-9/4(2) | 18 | 12 | 32 | 14 |
| Fla | 8/10-13(2) | 32 | 8 | 13 | 18 |
| Calif | 7/30-8/12(3) | 37 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| NJ | 8/24-26(1) | 51 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
The Delegate Path to Nomination
There are 2,517 delegates to the 2008 Republican National Convention, with 1,259 delegates required to secure the nomination.
If Florida and Michigan do "lose" 1/2 of their delegates as results of conducting primary elections outside the National Party-determined window, the total number of delegates will be reduced to 2,430, and the number needed to nominated is reduced to 1,216.
Of the total delegates, 1852 are allocated based on primary and caucus events, while 665 are unpledged delegates.
You'll recall that in Vol.73, "The Washington Watch" pointed out that, historically, the Republican candidate who has led in the Gallup poll one year before the Republican convention was been the Party's nominee. The relevant Gallup poll shows Rudy Giuliani has a comfortable lead over the GOP field on September 1st, one year before the start of the Republican convention.
On September 6th, Fred Thompson became a formal candidate for the Republican nomination. Will he do as well as an official candidate as an "informal" candidate? Time will tell.
Thompson first showed up in a Gallup survey in late March, registering 12% support. By mid-June he hit 19% and has not really grown since then; in mid-August he scored 19%. [Although the circumstances are different, Ronald Reagan did not announce his campaign for President until November 13, 1979. He had previously announced a Presidential campaign on November 20, 1975. See "<a href="">Let Us Remember</a>".]
John McCain's campaign is in a trough. It is hard to see how he recovers. In the spring McCain was registering 20-25% in national polls of Republican candidates. In recent polls he has averaged 11%.
In recent State polls of Republicans, McCain is running 5th in Iowa, 3rd in New Hampshire, 3rd in South Carolina, and 4th in Nevada.
Documents being circulated by the McCain campaign equate his current circumstances with those of Ronald Reagan in 1979. The big difference is that Reagan was never bested in the Gallup national poll during the primary election.
Keep an eye on Mike Huckabee. With little money, but an engaging public presence and strong conservative credentials, the former Governor of Arkansas is drawing attention. He is not going to be the Republican nominee for President, but he could be quite high on the V.P. list for someone like Giuliani. [He draws my attention because he lost over 100 pounds, the hard way, and has kept it off.]
