May 18, 2008 11:56 PM
2008 Congressional Campaigns
The most recent CBS/NYT and NBC/WSJ surveys (completed on 4/29) show a strong preference for the election of a Democratic Congress.| DEM | GOP | NET | |
| CBS/NYT | 50 | 32 | 18 |
| NBC/WSJ | 49 | 34 | 15 |
On the other hand, the last time Americans rated the Congress as low as it is currently rated (68% disapproval) was in the 1996 period.
The 18% approval rating of Congress found by Gallup in early May ties the lowest rating recorded in the 34-year history of the poll. The previous lows were found in August 2007 and March 1992.
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 49
- Republicans 49
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
There have been no changes in Senate races which suggest that Republican prospects have improved. If anything, it is leaning the other way.
Virginia now seems like an almost certain Democratic pickup, with former governor Mark Warner exercising control in the race.
Colorado remains a likely Democratic pickup, along with New Hampshire, now that Jeanne Shaheen (D) has decided to run. Mary Landrieu (D) from Louisiana remains the most potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbent.
Tim Johnson (D) of South Dakota seems to be on the road to re-election.
Incumbent Ted Stevens (R) Alaska is in trouble. Mark Begich (D), the Mayor of Anchorage, is challenging him. Given Stevens' alleged problems, Begich's prospects have improved of late.
In Minnesota, incumbent Norm Coleman (R) is being challenged by Al Franken (D). While Franken's prospects of beating Coleman seemed to be improving, recent events may turn out to be a gift to Coleman. It appears that Franken failed to pay certain taxes in several states relating to a business in which he was involved.
Mark Udall's (D) prospects in Colorado seem to be improving.
Here is how the 33 Senate elections (12 Democratic incumbents, 21 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)
| Safe Democratic (11) | Leaning Democratic (2) | Toss-Up (5) | Leaning Republican (5) | Safe Republican (10) |
| Arkansas | Louisiana | Alaska | Maine | Alabama |
| Delaware | South Dakota | Colorado | Nebraska | Georgia |
| Illinois | |
Minnesota |
North Carolina | Idaho |
| Iowa | New Hampshire | Oklahoma | Kansas | |
| Massachusetts | New Mexico | Oregon | Kentucky | |
| Michigan | Mississippi | |||
| Montana | South Carolina | |||
| New Jersey | Tennessee | |||
| Rhode
Island |
Texas | |||
| Virginia | Wyoming | |||
| West Virginia |
| Democrats | Republicans | Ind | |
| Seats not up in 2006 | 37 | 28 | 2 |
| Safe in 2006 | 11 | 10 | 0 |
| Leaning in 2006 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Total | 50 | 43 | 2 |
| Toss-ups | 5 (5R) |
If Democrats do pick up several seats in the Senate, some folks are asking whether they will replace Joe Lieberman (I) of Connecticut as Chair of the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee.Affairs Committee.
The U.S. House of Representatives
- Democrats 236
- Republicans 199
It is likely that the Democrats will pick up multiple seats in the November election. Turning again to the Cook Political Report for an assessment of House races, the current lineup is as follows.
In the April NBC/WSJ poll a generic Democrat has a 13-point advantage over a generic Republican. In the CBS/NYT survey taken in the same time frame the Democratic advantage is 15 points.
| 5/8/08 | |
| Solid Dem | 200 |
| Likely Dem | 14 |
| Lean Dem | 15 |
| Total Dem | 229 |
| Toss Up | 20 |
| D | 6 |
| R | 14 |
| Lean GOP | 13 |
| Likely GOP | 16 |
| Solid GOP | 157 |
| Total GOP | 186 |
The most dramatic indicator of where the fall House elections are headed is the 3 Republican seats that turned Democratic in recent special elections in the states of Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi.
