State of the Nation

Many Americans are depressed, depressed about the state of the country, the state of the federal government and the state of their lives.

• 72% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track (highest wrong track score in the history of the 20 history of the poll). [NBC/WSJ 4/08]
• 74% think the economy is getting worse. [CBS/NYT 4/08]
• 45% think the nation's economy will get worse during the next twelve months (highest number in the history of the poll). [NBC/WSJ 4/08]
• 81% believe the United States is in a recession now. [NBC/WSJ 4/08]
• 58% are dissatisfied with the state of the U.S. economy (highest dissatisfaction in the history of the poll). [NBC/WSJ 4/08]
• 77% rate the national economy as bad. [CBS/NYT 4/08]
• 43% say economic conditions are poor. [Gallup 5/08]

Since forever, the United States has been the leader in global distribution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That day is coming to an end. In a recent paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research Robert Fogel predicts that, by 2040, China will be the leader. In 2000 the U.S. produced 22% of global GDP, followed closely by the European Union (EU) at 21%, and China tied for 3rd with a group of SE Asian countries at 11%.

By 2040, Fogel predicts that China will be first, with 40% of global GDP, the U.S. will be second with 14%, and the EU will be 5th with 5%.



Note: The table above combines some elements of Tables 1 and 2 of Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations, Working Paper 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research by Robert W. Fogel.

---

• 66% disapprove of the job being done by the President (ties for highest disapproval of his tenure). [NBC/WSJ 4/08]
• An even higher disapproval was recorded in the CBS/NYT poll, 74% disapproving of the job being done by the President on the economy. [4/08]
• 68% disapprove of the job being done by the Congress. [CBS/NYT 4/08]

---

• 45% are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation (highest dissatisfaction since 1994 other than October 2002). [NBC/WSJ 4/08]
• 68% of Americans are worried about maintaining their current standard of living, an increase from 51% recorded in December. [ABC/WP 5/08]
• When asked about their household income:
  
  
  • 23% say - not enough to pay bills
  • 48% say - just enough to pay bills and obligations
  • 27% say - can save and buy extras [CBS/NYT 4/08]
• In April, food prices rose at a higher rate (.9%) than in any month sine January 1990. [WP 5/15/08]

Here are a series of findings from Gallup that relate to economic issues being faced by Americans. [Surveys taken during April and May]

• 46% of Americans report that recent food prices are causing them financial hardship. But it is worst for those making $30,000 or less per year, where 64% report distress.
• 68% report cutting back on household expenses because of the increased cost of gasoline.
• A year ago, 46% said that it was a good time to find a quality job. Now that number has dropped to 20%.
• 52% of Americans believe they are paying too much in federal income taxes. But 60% report the income tax they are paying as "fair."
• 49% report that their financial situation is getting worse.
• 90% of Americans expect that gas prices will hit $4 this summer. 74% expect prices to hit $5 per gallon. And 5% think prices will hit $6. (What do you think?)
• One in seven U.S. workers fear they will be laid off in the next 12 months. [Pew 4/08]

Women are facing more difficult times than men during the current economic crisis.

• real median wages for women dropped 3% in 2007, while they only dropped 0.5% for men.
• unemployment has risen higher than for men
• women are 32% more likely then men to have subprime mortgages
• women earn only 77 cents for every dollar earned by men
• non-married women have a net worth 48% lower than non-married men.

[Report released by Senator Ted Kennedy 4/18/08]

---

• The Democrats are trusted to do a better job of coping with the nation's problems over the next several years. So say 53% of respondents, as opposed to 32% who select the Republicans. [ABC/WP 5/08]
• 41% rate the Democratic party unfavorably (54% favorably), while 58% consider the Republican party unfavorably. [CBS/NYT 4/08]

When asked, "Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic is more likely to:"

• 41% list the economy as the number one issue they would like to hear about from the Presidential candidates. Running second is the war in Iraq (17%), with health care in 3rd place at 8%.

Just over 6 months ago the number one issue, at 26%, was the war, followed by healthcare at 25%, and the economy at 11%. The importance of the economy has grown fast since then. By March of '08 economy had moved to #1 at 29%. [CBS/NYT 4/08]

Return to Home Page