2008 Presidential Campaign

Democratic Primary

Act VII, which turned out to be the final act, opened on May 7th and finished on Saturday, June 7th. Hillary Clinton won 4 of the last 6 primaries held during the period, but it was not enough.

By the 3rd week of May, Barack Obama was able to claim that he had won a majority of the elected delegates. On the night of June 3rd, as the last primaries concluded, Obama was able to claim victory with a combination of elected and automatic delegates.

On June 7th, in a speech that was her best of the campaign, Clinton gave Obama her unqualified endorsement and called on her supporters to stand up for him. But of equal, if not greater, import, she talked about and to those American women, who in her candidacy, for the first time in a long time, if ever, found their champion and leader.

But between her June 3rd speech and her speech on the 7th, Clinton was subjected to a variety of criticisms from public figures (who should have known better) and others who believed that she should have conceded the race on Tuesday night.

Public officials, in particular, should have appreciated and understood Clinton's need for a little time. A person who runs for President is by definition a dreamer. When their quest for President comes to an end, that dream is quashed. And the closer the person comes to realizing that dream, the harder is the loss. They should be given a little time to deal with that loss.

Her delay had no adverse affect on Barack Obama's campaign. Even if she had waited a few days longer, it would not have affected his campaign. To his credit, Obama counseled everyone to just relax.

Here are the latest counts [Real Clear Politics].

Delegates - only tabulation that counts.



Popular vote -



Contests won - based on final delegate counts

The Encore

August 28th, will be a historic night in this country. On that night an African- American will accept the nomination of a major political party, the Democratic Party.

It is also the 45th Anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I have a Dream" speech.

Between now and the convention there will be a certain amount of sturm and drang. How will Hillary be treated at the convention, which is now under the control of the Obama campaign? Will she have her name placed in nomination (it only requires the signature of 300 delegates)?

As many will recall, in 1980, the Kennedy forces made a run at a rules change that they thought might enable Kennedy to beat Carter. When the Carter forces handily won the relevant vote, Kennedy decided not to have his name placed in nomination. Nonetheless, Kennedy received 1150 votes on the first ballot.

In 1984, with Walter Mondale a clear winner (2191 votes) going into the convention, Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson each received votes on the first ballot, Hart received 1201 and Jackson 466.

Here are the 1st ballot results of several other recent Democratic conventions.

1976

• Carter 2239
• Udall 330
• Tsongas 301

1988

• Dukakis 2877
• Jackson 1219

1992

• Clinton 3372
• Brown 596
• Tsongas 289

At least on the surface, the healing has begun between Obama and Clinton. Several nights ago Clinton brought Obama to a meeting of her principal fundraisers. Obama made the right gesture in making his maximum personal contribution to help retire her debt.

In coming weeks Clinton will be on the road in support of Obama's candidacy, and she will have a prominent role at the convention whether or not she is the Vice Presidential nominee.

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It is unlikely that any candidate other than McCain will get a significant number of votes at the Republican convention.

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The General Election

The general election campaign has begun. At the rate that McCain and Obama and their teams are exchanging charges and countercharges, either they or the public are going to be very tired long before election day.

While WW does not believe that surveys this early in the game mean very much, here is the lay of the land in the race for President.





Five of these surveys are in the same ballpark, the other two show a stronger Obama lead.

In the F&M College Poll, voters who think



In looking for reasons to explain the difference in the polls, WW looked at the partisan nature of the samples used in three of the surveys. It did not provide an answer.

Newsweek and Washington Post/ABC tend to be pretty close in the number of Democrats and Republicans in their samples. The NBC/WSJ survey includes fewer identified Democrats and a greater number of Independents.

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Looking back, the general elections in 2004, 2000 and 1996 had the following cast to them, as recorded by the Gallup Survey.

2004

• Bush 48%
• Kerry 47%

2000

• Bush 50%
• Gore 38%

1996

• Bush 33%
• Perot 32%
• Clinton 27%

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50% say that it is more important for a candidate for President to represent "new direction and new ideas," as opposed to 43% who say that "strength and experience" is most important. [WP/ABC 6/08]

Here is a list of qualities and how the American public thinks about McCain and Obama in relation to them. % represents those who rated them 5 or 4 on a 5 point scale. 5 is very good. [NBC/WSJ 6/08]

The two men are rated about equally on being honest and straightforward. McCain has the advantage when it comes to experience, leadership qualities, and being commander-in-chief. Obama is tops in being easy-going and likeable, being inspirational, bringing change, and sharing their positions on issues.

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The Electoral College

A variety of organizations have begun analyzing the Electoral College. After all the election is about electoral votes, not popular votes.

WW does not have the resources to do the complicated analysis that many organizations use. The WW approaches the contest as follows. [See attachment.]

If Obama simply wins all of the States that have been won by the Democratic candidate in the last 4 Presidential elections (1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004) he will have 248 electoral votes.

Using the same standard for McCain, but substituting States that have gone Republican in the last 4 Presidential elections, he has 135 votes.

Then WW gives to McCain those states which have been won by Republicans in 3 of the last 4 elections, including in 2000 and 2004. That gives him an additional 64 votes for a total of 199.

There are 3 States which have been won by the Democrat in 3 of the last 4 elections, but in none of those States did the Democrat win in 2000 and 2004.

So there are 91 electoral votes in play: the 3 States (16 electoral votes) in which Democrats have won 3 of the last 4; and the 75 electoral votes which have split 2 for 2 in the last 4 elections, but in each of those States the Republicans have won in the last 2 elections. This is the field from which Obama must find 25 electoral votes and McCain must find 71.

In the group of States with 64 electoral votes which WW has assigned to McCain, available polling shows McCain leading in 3, Obama leading in 1, and no public polls available in the 5th, which happens to be Arizona, so it is not unrealistic to give that to McCain. Thus McCain leads in 4 of 5, totaling 55 votes, with 9 votes slated for Obama's camp.

In the group of 75 electoral votes that have split 2/2 in the last 4 Presidential elections, there is no publicly available polling in 4 of 8 of these States. One State, Nevada, is even. McCain leads in 2 states and Obama leads in one. So, McCain has 20 votes, Obama has 20 votes, and 35 votes are in the air.

In the group of 16 votes in which 3 of the last 4 elections have been won by the Democrat, 1 State is even, leaving its 4 votes in play. The other two, boasting 12 votes, are in the Obama column.

So, after all of the above guesstimating, the electoral votes are allocated by WW as follows:

• Obama 289
• McCain 210
• TossUps 39

If you want to play the electoral vote game most of the news websites allow you to manipulate at will.

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The Financing Flap

There is a high level of dyspepsia among editorial writers, columnists and assorted groups because Obama has decided to forego Federal financing for his general election campaign.

Their angst is in defense of a broken "system". They are upset because earlier in the campaign Obama made statements that he would consider limiting his general election campaign financing to the Federal grant that would be delivered under that broken system.

There was no particular angst when Obama, Clinton and McCain eschewed the matching fund system in the primaries. After all each of them would have been allowed under the system to spend $42 million between January 2007 - August 2008.

And there didn't seem to be much consternation when the McCain campaign appeared to game the system by using the fact that he was eligible for matching funds as collateral for establishing a loan or line of credit.

Rather than being upset with Obama, they should be pleased to learn that he is a candidate who learns. He learned enough during the primary campaign to realize that the Federal grant - $84.1 million - is not enough to do the job that needs to be done. And oh, by the way, he has so turned on the American body politic that he does not have to limit himself in this way.

If Obama is to be criticized it is for the convoluted reasoning by which he and his campaign explained the decision. They talked about all the money that the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee was getting from lobbyists and Pacs. They talked about all of the groups on the conservative side of the spectrum whose potential attacks his campaign might have to overcome.

According to FactCheck.Org, contributions from "lobbyists and PACS" make up less than 1.7% of the money that has been taken in by the McCain campaign, and less than 1.1% of the RNC's receipts.

As to all those groups on the right, they seem to be having a hard time getting going this year. Even assuming that they do, in 2004 the amounts of money spent by such groups on the liberal side of the equation were far more than those on the conservative side.

To be sure, Obama has asked those with a liberal bent to cease and desist. Move.org has responded by closing its Sec. 527 side, but the independent expenditures by its PAC will continue.

It would have been better if the campaign was up front about its reasoning. There is a huge job to be done. Just awakening that 45+% of the potential electorate which does not play in elections will cost more than the Federal grant will ever permit.

And, by the way, the costs associated with campaigning have grown at a greater rate than the CPI, which is the basis for the growth in the amount available under the Federal grant. An example would be the cost of primetime TV commercials. Their cost has grown beyond the rate of the CPI.

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McCain intends to take the Federal grant, although he now has a perfectly good reason to opt out, should he choose to do so. The question for McCain is whether his fundraising machine can match Obama's.

Currently, his fundraising capability has been improving month-to-month, and he is engaged in a joint fundraising effort with the Republican National Committee.

The best bet is that he will not risk competing with Obama on the money side during the general election. Between now and the Republican convention he will raise and spend as much as possible as primary expenditures. He will then push his fundraisers to turn to the RNC.

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Obama is making a big bet, that his fundraising machine will respond for the general election.

He is betting that his previous contributors, and others to be added, will continue to finance his "primary" campaign efforts and in addition will respond for the general.

According to Gallup, there has been a drop in enthusiasm about voting since Super Tuesday, from 63%, who were at the time more enthusiastic than usual, to 48%, who have that view at the present time. Among Democrats the drop has been from 79% to 61% and among Republicans from 44% to 35%.

Notably, in mid-July 2004 enthusiasm for the election was considerably higher than it is today. 60% were more enthusiastic than usual about the election. 68% of Democrats and 51% of Republicans fell into this category.

The $64 question is whether this drop in enthusiasm will impact Obama's fundraising. Over the months of March, April and May, Obama's total contributions received has declined.

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Once Obama spends the first dollar from his general election account, which he may well do before the general election starts, he gives up the right to request Federal funds.

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Any unencumbered funds which the Obama campaign has left in its primary account at the start of the general election, August 29th, can be rolled over and used in the general election.

For example, if the campaign happens to have on hand at the end of the primary season, $50,000,000 net of outstanding obligations, that money can be rolled over into its general election account.

This roll-over does not in any way affect the ability of a maxed-out Obama primary voter to max out to Obama's general election campaign. (The contribution is subject to the individual contributor's aggregate contribution limit.)

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Both campaigns can specifically direct approximately $18,500,00 in spending by their respective national political parties. Other than that, Party spending cannot be coordinated with the Presidential campaigns.

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The Annenberg Public Policy Center has established an entity it calls "Factcheck.org." It is designed to comment on the "accuracy" and/or "validity" of claims in a variety of arenas, including the Presidential campaign. You can sign up to receive email alerts to its various commentaries by going to Factcheck.org.

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