2008 Congressional Campaigns

American voters continue to prefer the election of a Democratic Congress in November. However, that choice is slightly softer that it was several months ago.



However, the job performance rating of both Democrat- controlled Houses continues to be problematic.

In four surveys taken between 7/16 and 8/04 the average approval rating of 19% points ranged from 15% (NBC/WSJ) to 22% (CNN). The disapproval ratings ranged from 68% (Fox) to 77% (CNN)

The only time in which the NBC/WSJ survey has reflected a higher or equivalent disapproval rating was in June '08 (79%) and October '08 (75%). In October '94, when the Democrats lost control of the House after an "endless" period of control, the disapproval rating reflected in this survey was 67%.

Fortunately, for the Democrats the disapproval rating of the Republicans in Congress is higher (69%) than the Democrats (57%) and the Democrats have a 10- point margin on the approval side. [WP/ABC 7/13/08]

Incumbents who have some basis for vulnerability should be nervous. 47% of voters believe that a new person should be given a chance to represent them, as opposed to 40% who think the incumbent should be re-elected. [NBC/WSJ 7/08]

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 49
• Republicans 49
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

There is considerable euphoria on behalf of Democrats as to their prospects for a filibuster proof control of the Senate. The magic number would appear to be a 60-vote Democratic caucus (including Independents who caucus with the Democrats). However, this does not tell the whole story.

The chance of losing a "Democratic caucus" member or two on particular matters is certainly within the realm of possibility. On the other hand, there may be as many as 4 members of the Republican caucus, who, on a variety of matters, would join with the Democrats to stop a filibuster by their Republican colleagues. These Republican members include Arlan Specter, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Gordon Smith. If Norm Coleman is re-elected, he is also a possibility to play this role occasionally.

All of which is to say that the Democratic leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will having increasing numbers of options as the size of the Democratic majority increases.

New Mexico and Alaska are two Republican-controlled seats that now appear to be heading toward a Democratic takeover.

Mark Udall (D) in New Mexico, seems to have this race under control. In this open seat race, Udall has crossed the 50% threshold and runs well ahead of his Republican opponents.

Alaska provides a more complicated scenario. Senator Ted Stevens, who was facing a potentially difficult election, has been indicted by the Federal Government for violating Senate reporting rules. He has requested an expedited trial, which has tentatively been set for September 24th.

Assuming the trial goes forward at that time, this will not be helpful to Republican candidates at large.

There is another possible scenario. Stevens has 6 opponents in the state's August 26th primary. If Stevens were to lose, that ends the electoral story. If he wins, some have suggested that he might leave the race anyway, and let the Republican Party, which has a state convention on September 17th, pick a replacement candidate.

Oregon moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. Gordon Smith (R) is being challenged by Jeff Merkley (D), the current Speaker of the Oregon House. In the most recent publicly available poll, [May 2008] Smith leads Merkley by 4 points 38% to 34%.

Minnesota moves from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. Al Franken (D), the Democrats great hope to take back the second Minnesota Senate seat and return to the glory days of Humphrey, McCarthy and Mondale, is not cutting the mustard. He has encountered a series of problems relating to his own history. Norm Coleman (R), the incumbent, is not doing as well as expected, but appears to be holding his own against Franken.

Finally, Kentucky moves from Safe Republican to Leaning Republican. Mitch McConnell (R), the Republican Leader in the Senate, leads his opponent by roughly 10 points. However, he is not breaking 50%.

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Among the 4 Toss-Up Races, one of them (Colorado), could well end up in Democratic hands in the person of Tom Udall (D) (cousin of Mark).

In Mississippi (B), Governor Barber (R) appointed incumbent Rodger Wicker. He currently leads Ronnie Musgrove (D), the former governor, by 4 points, 46%-42%, in a May survey.

Finally, in New Hampshire, Jean Shaheen (D), the former governor, who earlier led incumbent Republican John Sununu by substantial margins, is currently not breaking 50%, and is now ahead by only a small handful of points.

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If the two Independent Senators (a big if) continue to caucus with the Democrats, then it is easy to see a Democratic caucus of 55 members.

And within the mix of Mississippi, New Hampshire, and Oregon it is likely that the Democrats will pick up another seat, bringing the number to 56. From there on, it is not so easy.

Much may depend on where the Obama campaign actually plays. Full-scale, Presidential-level, voter turnout campaigns can make the difference in several races. More about that in the next WW.

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Here is how the 35 Senate elections (12 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)

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The U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 236
• Republicans 199

Euphoria also seems to be gripping House Democrats. The estimates of additional Democratic seats range from 10 to 25.

Of the 8 Toss-Up seats that are currently controlled by Democrats, all have Republican PVIs* ranging from 0 to 15. Of the 19 Toss-Up seats that are currently held by Republicans, 13 have Republican PVIs ranging from 1 to 14. (Note: The R+14 is Republican Don Young's seat in Alaska. Given all that is going on there, Young could have a problem.)

It appears that on the Democratic side, the caucus will be somewhat more conservative than the current caucus. Most of the newcomers are likely to be Blue Dogs, with a few New Dems thrown in for good measure.

Whether the number of additions is 10 or 25 makes a big difference in Speaker Nancy Pelosi's ability to work her will in the new Congress. At 246 seats, Pelosi can lose 28 of her colleagues and still control the vote on given issues. At 261 seats, she can lose 40 of her members on a given vote and still have a few to spare.

At the end of the day, under any circumstance, if you have an issue on which the 60th Speaker is on the other side, you have a big problem. Whether you like her or not, Pelosi is undoubtedly a Speaker of great strength.

WW's best guess at the moment - 13 to 20 Democratic pickups.



[* The Partisan Voting Index is a feature of the Cook Political Report. Using the 2000 and 2004 Presidential race it ranks each Congressional District by how well it performs in terms of the national performance for each Party's Presidential candidate. For example, a PVI of R+2 means the District performed 2 points better than Republican Presidential performance nationally.]

[And those of you who are familiar with it, will notice that all the numbers above are based on Cook.]

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