September 15, 2008 12:57 AM
2008 Congressional Campaigns
Democrats continue to be on the path of increasing their margins in the U.S. Senate and House. A generic vote, suggests, however, that the "race" is tightening.| DEM | GOP | NET | |
| Democracy Corps (9/1-3) | 50 | 45 | 5 |
| Hotline/FD (9/5-7) | 51 | 42 | 9 |
| USAToday/Gallup (9/5-7, registered voters) | 48 | 45 | 3 |
| USAToday/Gallup (9/5-7, outlier, likely voters) | 48 | 50 | -5 |
The public remains unhappy with the performance of the Democratic- controlled House and Senate.
In at least 4 national surveys taken 8/12-31 the average disapproval of Congress was 74%. 18% approved its work.
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 49
- Republicans 49
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
While Democrats continue to show substantial progress toward increasing their majority, the prospects for reaching the magic number of 60 does not seem to be great.
Among the Toss-Up States, the Democratic candidates lead in Colorado and New Hampshire. Republican incumbents are leading in Minnesota, Oregon and Mississippi.
New Mexico and Alaska are two currently Republican- controlled seats in which Democrats are now leading. In Alaska, Ted Stevens (R) trails Mark Begich (D), and in New Mexico, which is an open seat, Tom Udall (D) has a solid lead.
Despite his legal problems, Ted Stevens survived his primary with ease, and ostensibly he will come to trial in D.C. Federal Court in sufficient time to have the matter resolved, at least at the trial level, before the election.
Minnesota, which last month moved from Toss-Up to Lean Republican, moves back to Toss-Up.
In New Hampshire, Jean Shaheen (D) seems to be doing a little better in her race to unseat incumbent Republican John Sununu.
Mary Landrieu (D), the incumbent in Louisiana, who has been on everyone's watch list for the entire cycle, is holding her own and likely to be re- elected.
Looking at the races today, it is not hard to see the Democratic caucus at 55 seats, including 1 Independent, Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Here is how the 35 Senate elections (12 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)
| Safe Democratic (11) | Leaning Democratic (4) | Toss-Up (5) | Leaning Republican (4) | Safe Republican (11) |
| Arkansas | Alaska |
Colorado | Kentucky |
Alabama |
| Delaware | Louisiana | Minnesota | Maine |
Georgia |
| Illinois | New Mexico |
Mississippi | Nebraska | Idaho |
| Iowa | South Dakota | New Hampshire |
North Carolina | Kansas |
| Massachusetts | Oregon | Mississippi(A) | ||
| Michigan | |
Oklahoma | ||
| Montana | South Carolina | |||
| New Jersey | Tennessee | |||
| Rhode
Island |
Texas | |||
| Virginia | Wyoming(A) | |||
| West Virginia | Wyoming(B) |
| Democrats | Republicans | Ind | |
| Seats not up in 2008 | 37 | 26 | 2 |
| Safe in 2008 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Leaning in 2008 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Total | 52 | 41 | 2 |
| Toss-ups | 5 (5R) (Leaning 2D, 3R) |
The U.S. House of Representatives
- Democrats 236
- Republicans 199
There has not been a lot of change in the House ratings since last month.
WW's best guess at the moment - 12 to 17 Democratic pickups.
| 6/19/08 | 8/15/08 | 9/15/08 | |
| Total Dem | 238 | 241 | 241 |
| Solid Dem | 203 | 203 | 206 |
| Likely Dem | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| Lean Dem | 14 | 15 | 15 |
| Toss-Up | 26 | 25 | 27 |
| D | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| R | 19 | 17 | 19 |
| Lean GOP | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| Likely GOP | 18 | 33 | 30 |
| Solid GOP | 152 | 133 | 134 |
| Total GOP | 197 | 194 | 194 |
