Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

October 20, 2008 7:53 AM

2008 Congressional Campaigns

By 49% to 36%, Americans believe that Democrats should continue to control the Congress and that will undoubtedly be the result. However, the public is not quite so certain that same Party control of the Congress and the Presidency is a good thing. By 48% to 41% they think it would be better if different Parties controlled these institutions. This view is not likely to prevail, at least on today's facts. [NBC/WSJ 10/08]


The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 49
  • Republicans 49
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

It would be a political earthquake of significant proportions if the Democrats do not start the New Year with a substantial increase in their majority in the Senate. The outstanding question is whether they will get to the magic number of 60. And if they do, will it be with or without the participation of Senator Joe Lieberman.

Using the chart below, here is what it takes for the Democrats to hit the magic number.

Given the Democrats whose seats are safe, plus those currently leaning Democrat, and including only Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt), the Democrats would be at 54, a modest increase from their current status of 51, which includes Sanders and Lieberman.

In the Leaning Democrat category is Alaska. If Senator Ted Stevens is convicted, it seems improbable that he would be re-elected. If, on the other hand, he is acquitted (not a far-fetched prospect given his representation by lawyer extraordinaire Brendon Sullivan), then his prospects improve. However, there are regular observers of the Alaska political scene that say he will lose even then.

Looking at the 6 Toss-up races, three of them (New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon) are currently leaning to the Democrats. Georgia, Mississippi(B) and Minnesota are too close to call. In the case of Minnesota, the Independent candidate for the Senate is getting between 13% to 18% of the votes, depending on which poll you think is most accurate.

Giving the 3 States that are leaning Democratic, that takes the Democrats to 57 seats. From there on it gets a little less obvious. There are 2 States that are currently leaning Republican that some observers think may be in play.

So, assume the Democrats pick up two more of the Toss-Up States, and the Democrats are within striking distance, with 59. Do they then make a deal with Joe Lieberman? Or do they work to get a Republican or two on one cloture vote or another?

Here is how the 35 Senate elections (12 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)

Safe Democratic (13) Leaning Democratic (3) Toss-Up (6) Leaning Republican (3) Safe Republican (10)
Arkansas Alaska
Georgia Kentucky
Alabama
Delaware Colorado Minnesota Maine
Idaho
Illinois Louisiana
Mississippi (B) Nebraska Kansas
Iowa
New Hampshire
Mississippi (A)
Massachusetts   No. Carolina
Oklahoma
Michigan   Oregon

So. Carolina
Montana       Tennessee
New Jersey       Texas
New Mexico
      Wyoming (A)
Rhode Island
      Wyoming (B)
So. Dakota
     
Virginia
West Virginia


  Democrats Republicans Ind
Seats not up in 2008 37 26 2
Safe in 2008 13 10 0
Leaning in 2008 3 3 0
Total 53 39 2
Toss-ups 6 (6R)    


Seats not up in 2008 37
Safe in 2008  13
Leaning Dem in 2008 3
Toss-ups going Dem 3
1 independent 1

57
 
2 more Toss-up going Dem 2

59


The U.S. House of Representatives

  • Democrats 236 (includes 1 vacancy)
  • Republicans 199

While it may not appear from the chart below that all that much is going on, the anecdotal information suggests otherwise.

WW's best guess at the moment: 23 - 25 Democratic pickups.

6/19/08 8/15/08 9/15/08 10/16/08
Total Dem 238 241 241 240
Solid Dem 203 203 206 205
Likely Dem 14 15 12 15
Lean Dem 14 15 15 12
Toss-Up 26 25 27 31
     D 7 8 8 8
     R 19 17 19 23
Lean GOP 8 11 11 13
Likely GOP 18 33 30 18
Solid GOP 152 133 134 141
Total GOP 197 194 194 195




Assuming a pickup of at least 23 seats, Speaker Pelosi can afford to lose 41 Democrats on any vote and still prevail. This gives her considerable flexibility to let Members who are in difficult Districts to periodically take a walk.



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