2008 Congressional Campaigns

By 49% to 36%, Americans believe that Democrats should continue to control the Congress and that will undoubtedly be the result. However, the public is not quite so certain that same Party control of the Congress and the Presidency is a good thing. By 48% to 41% they think it would be better if different Parties controlled these institutions. This view is not likely to prevail, at least on today's facts. [NBC/WSJ 10/08]

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 49
• Republicans 49
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

It would be a political earthquake of significant proportions if the Democrats do not start the New Year with a substantial increase in their majority in the Senate. The outstanding question is whether they will get to the magic number of 60. And if they do, will it be with or without the participation of Senator Joe Lieberman.

Using the chart below, here is what it takes for the Democrats to hit the magic number.

Given the Democrats whose seats are safe, plus those currently leaning Democrat, and including only Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt), the Democrats would be at 54, a modest increase from their current status of 51, which includes Sanders and Lieberman.

In the Leaning Democrat category is Alaska. If Senator Ted Stevens is convicted, it seems improbable that he would be re-elected. If, on the other hand, he is acquitted (not a far-fetched prospect given his representation by lawyer extraordinaire Brendon Sullivan), then his prospects improve. However, there are regular observers of the Alaska political scene that say he will lose even then.

Looking at the 6 Toss-up races, three of them (New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon) are currently leaning to the Democrats. Georgia, Mississippi(B) and Minnesota are too close to call. In the case of Minnesota, the Independent candidate for the Senate is getting between 13% to 18% of the votes, depending on which poll you think is most accurate.

Giving the 3 States that are leaning Democratic, that takes the Democrats to 57 seats. From there on it gets a little less obvious. There are 2 States that are currently leaning Republican that some observers think may be in play.

So, assume the Democrats pick up two more of the Toss-Up States, and the Democrats are within striking distance, with 59. Do they then make a deal with Joe Lieberman? Or do they work to get a Republican or two on one cloture vote or another?

Here is how the 35 Senate elections (12 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)

Seats not up in 2008	37
Safe in 2008	13
Leaning Dem in 2008	3
Toss-ups going Dem	3
1 independent	1
	57
2 more Toss-up going Dem	2
	59

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The U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 236 (includes 1 vacancy)
• Republicans 199

While it may not appear from the chart below that all that much is going on, the anecdotal information suggests otherwise.

WW's best guess at the moment: 23 - 25 Democratic pickups.

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Assuming a pickup of at least 23 seats, Speaker Pelosi can afford to lose 41 Democrats on any vote and still prevail. This gives her considerable flexibility to let Members who are in difficult Districts to periodically take a walk.

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