October 20, 2008 7:56 AM
And The Winner Will Be
It is likely that before election day, more than $1 billion dollars will have been spent on the Presidential race from beginning to end.It turns out that all of that money was probably wasted, as was the work of the consultants; campaign staff that were hired; the TV, radio, newspaper, and internet advertising; and all of the travel by the candidates and their surrogates.
In fact, it was probably all over by September 2007. At least, so says Alan J. Lichtman, of American University, and his colleague Volodia Kellis-Borok, a Russian authority on the mathematics of prediction models.
The two men developed the "13 Keys to the White House." The keys accurately predict the popular vote winners of every Presidential election from 1860-1980 after the fact, and "prospectively the winners of every Presidential election from 1984 through 2004."
The Keys are 13 questions that are stated as "propositions" that favor reelection of the incumbent Party. If five or fewer of these "propositions" are false, that Party wins another term in office. When 6 or more are false the incumbent Party loses.
Here are the questions. Decide for yourself who has already won the election.
Key 1 - After the midterm elections, the incumbent Party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
True_____ False______
Key 2 - There is no serious contest for the incumbent Party nomination.
True_____ False______
Key 3 - The incumbent Party candidate is the sitting President.
True_____ False______
Key 4 - There is no significant third Party or independent campaign.
True_____ False_______
Key 5 - The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
True_____ False_______
Key 6 - Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
True_____ False________
Key 7 - The incumbent Administration effects major changes in national policy.
True_____ False________
Key 8 - There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
True_____ False_______
Key 9 - The incumbent Administration is untainted by major scandal.
True_____ False_______
Key 10 - The incumbent Administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
True_____ False________
Key 11 - The incumbent Administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
True______ False________
Key 12 - The incumbent Party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
True______ False_______
Key 13 - The challenging Party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
True______ False_______
Number that are true_______
Number that are false________
The winner is_____________
