Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

November 28, 2008 11:57 AM

The Electorate: How Obama Won And How McCain Lost

1. There is something about Obama that caught the imagination of a whole lot of Americans.

  • The Iraq war and his position on it provided him an opportunity.
  • His basic speech, which was short on specifics, offered folks the opportunity to believe that if they had a need or an aspiration, he understood it and would do something to help them achieve it.
  • Loss of support for President Bush and his Administration provided a convenient backdrop for Obama's message of change. In addition to President Bush's record low approval ratings, he is held primarily accountable for the meltdown of the financial system.
2. The more potential voters came to know John McCain, the less it appears they were attracted to him as a possible President.

3. Obama was a natural candidate for the democratic base. John McCain was not a natural candidate for the Republican base.

4. Obama and his team ran an exceptional campaign.

  • Looking at it from the outside and observing results, it was the kind of campaign that those of us who have been involved in the past have always dreamed about.
  • Stumbles along the way did not pull them off their game plan. The same people were in charge of the campaign at the end of the campaign as were in charge on the first day.
  • This has been a campaign with less obvious internal drama than any in modern memory.
  • The voter contact program was beyond state-of-the-art. It created a new state-of-the-art and was fully funded. The Republican database has been more up-to-date and user friendly than that available to Democrats for years and years. That advantage is gone.
  • Catalist, a new company that created and operates the database used primarily by the Obama campaign (as well as others during the primary season), is state-of-the-art, with an architecture that makes it more useful than the DNC list, which is also in far better shape than at anytime in history.
  • Here is an example of an Obama field operation.

    Alfred Johnson, a June college graduate, was the field director for 8 counties in northern New Mexico

    • There were 187,661 registered voters of which 122,993 were Democrats
    • 8 field offices, with 13 paid staff
    • 45 non-paid full-time staff
    • thousands of volunteers
    • 2,627 canvassers on election day
    • 300,000 geo-coded doors knocked in 3 months
    • blind canvases in every town with a population greater than 400
    • Obama won the 8-county area 75.3% to 24.7%.
      • 101,530 votes to 33,305 votes
    • Kerry won the area in 2004 63% to 37%
      • 87,743 votes to 41,328 votes
    • Obama won the State 57% to 42%; Kerry lost the State 49% to 50%
  • 5. The McCain campaign went through a series of ups and downs and changes.

    • Overall campaign plan was not obvious
    • Theme seemed to change from week to week and month to month
    • Message was weak, resulting in weak strategy
    • For a period of time one needed a score card to keep track of who was in charge.
    • The voter turnout program was a rehash of a program that was used successfully twice by President Bush, but it had not been brought up to speed. McCain did not have the necessary resources available to fully implement it.
    6. Obama's success at fundraising and his decision not to take Federal funds in the general election gave him an important advantage throughout the long campaign. Perhaps as much as $150-$200,000,000.

    • McCain's decision to stick with Federal funding, probably his only realistic option resulted in his campaign operating at a substantial financial disadvantage.
    7. May 13, 2006 is the day on which John McCain took the first step toward losing the 2008 Presidential campaign

    • McCain spoke at Liberty University's graduation, having made "peace" the preceding Fall with the Reverends Falwell and Robertson. He previously had called Falwell an "agent of intolerance."
    • McCain had had a long-running "love affair" with the national media. The speech at Liberty University caused that "love affair" begin to fall apart.
    • John McCain forgot who he was. His stature and attractiveness deteriorated as the campaign wore on, as did his romance with the media.
    • Saying that he knew little about the economy, when it was destined to be the most important issue of the campaign, along with some of the decisions he made, did not accrue to his benefit.
    • He showed a temperament that did not encourage confidence in how he would act as a leader.
    • His selection of Governor Palin created further doubt about his judgement.
    8. As the media paid more attention to Obama, they started to fall in love with him. Since their love affair with McCain was coming to an end, it made it easier for them to shift their love.

    • They turned away from McCain with a vengeance. A study was done of the positive and negative references to McCain and Obama on the regular news programs of the 4 broad cast TV networks...ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox. (Cable networks were not included.) ABC was found to be most balanced, followed by Fox.

      Obama McCain

      Positive Negative Positive Negative
      Fox 28% 72% 39% 61%
      ABC 57% 43% 42% 58%
      CBS 73% 27% 31% 69%
      NBC 56% 44% 16% 84%
      All Four 65% 35% 31% 69%
      [Center for Media and Public Affairs, George Mason University]
    9. The final straw that doomed McCain's campaign was the financial meltdown.

    Below is a WW-selected series of events on the path to final Government action on the financial crisis, matched with the Gallup tracking poll of the same date.

    Obama McCain
    Monday, Sept 8 - US takes over Fannie and Freddie  44 49
    Monday, Sept 15 - Crisis on Wall Street as Lehman sold, AIG needs cash  45 47
    Wednesday, Sept 17 - US to take over AIG 47 45
    Friday, Sept 19 - US bailout proposed to
    stem financial crisis
    49 46
    Friday, Sept 26 - McCain jumps into thicket:

    - calls for a WH meeting that
    Bush did not want to have

    - Bush and Obama came out of meeting appearing to be working together for passage

    - McCain had nothing to say or do

    - First Presidential Debate
    49 44
    October 1 - Senate passes bailout 48 43
    October 3 - House passes bailout, President signs 50 42



Another View

Peter Hart, with the assistance of Alex Horowitz, conducted a post-election focus group in the Virginia exurbs, as part of the series conducted for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

All 12 voters in the group voted for Barack Obama, but did not start there. 8 of the 12 voted for Bush in 2004, 9 considered voting for McCain at some stage of the election, 6 were Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents.

The following are selected quotes from a memorandum that summarized the group discussion.

  • "these voters wanted change" and "change that would lead to a government of action and a government of accountability and transparency."
  • "Obama was 'fresh','true to his word','a person who radiated both self- awareness and calm."
  • "When asked about the single moment of voting for Obama, people described it as 'historic', 'exciting, 'a sense of relief' and more than a few felt 'anxious' or 'nervous'".
  • "the President-elect is going to receive a great deal of latitude from these swing voters. The judgements about him are more likely to be based on the way he approaches the problems and not by instantaneous results."
  • "The personal relationship these voters have to Barack Obama is different from anything we have measured with previous Presidents."
  • "They are with Obama because he is what they want for America - fresh, straight shooter, genuine, sincere."



Who And How Many Came To The Election?

To date (11/21), 127,142,278 people voted for President in 2008. That number will grow. It takes several weeks for all votes to be tabulated. This compares with the 122,295,000 who voted in that race in 2004.

It is still quite possible that the total turnout will reach 130,000,000. From 1968 through 2004 the average increase in voter turnout has been 7%, ranging from a high of 16% between 2000 and 2004, and a low of a -7.8% between 1992 and 1996.

So far the increase from 2004 to 2008 is 3.9%.

About 30% of total votes were cast early in one form or another. This is up from roughly 20% in 2004 and 7% in 2000. Early voting relieves pressure on the polls on election day. The likely result is that States which do not provide for "in person early voting" or which have particularly stringent rules for absentee voting, will feel pressure to make voting more accessible.

[In Snapshot 4 there is a discussion of turnout. There was a computation error in determining the percentage growth in participation from one Presidential election to the next. So, erase it from your mind and rely on the information above and this chart.]



As in a number of recent elections, much has been made of the potential increased participation of young people between the ages of 18-29. While there was an increase in the number of young people who participated in 2008, their share of the actual voting pool which they represent increased only slightly, from 17% in 2000 and 2004 to 18% in 2008.

In short, young people, as voters continue to underperform their percentage of the eligible population. Their's is the only group that represents a smaller portion of the voting pool than its share of the population.

18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Pop 22.5% 27.4% 27.1% 23%
Vote 18% 29% 30% 23%


Looking at individual States, the percentage of young people in the actual voting pool from 2004 to 2008 varied.

The percentage was down in

  • Ohio - by 4 pts (21% to 17%)
  • Florida - by 2 pts (17% to 15%)
  • Colorado - by 1 pt (15% to 14%)

However it was up in

  • Missouri - by 1 pt (20% to 21%)
  • Indiana - by 5 pts (14% to 19%)

Level of support was the real issue

  • Kerry 54% Obama 66%

African Americans - 11% to 13% of the electorate

  • up 1 point or even in Ohio, Fla, Colorado, Indiana
  • up 5 points in Missouri
    • Kerry 88% Obama 95%

Latinos - No increase in their share of electorate (8%)

  • level of support was up
  • Kerry 53% obama 66%

How they voted:

Kerry 2004 Obama 2008
Men 44% 49%
Women 51% 56%
Whites 41% 43%
Union Members 61% 60%
1st time Voter 53% 68%

    • Obama exceeded Kerry among liberals, moderates and conservatives
    • The later folks made up their minds about who to vote for, the better McCain did. [Peter Hart does not think this is a valid measuring tool, so don't take it too seriously.]

    McCain Obama
    Elec day/ last 3 days 48% 49% (9%)
    Earlier 46% 53% (91%)


    [See comparison of 2004 and 2008 exit polls in various categories.]



    Democratic Party identification as compared to Republican Party identification grew between the 2004 and 2008 elections

    Dem GOP Ind
    2008 39 32 29
    2004 37 37 26


    There has been little change in how Americans describe their political views, conservative, moderate or liberal. While young people are seen as the most liberal, with 27% self-describing themselves as liberal, it is not an overwhelming number.

    Conservative Moderate Liberal
    1992 35 40 18
    1996 39 39 17
    2000 36 38 18
    2004 38 36 19
    2008 38 36 21


    2008 Conservative Moderate Liberal
    GOP 65 24 4
    DEM 25 37 34
    IND 36 45 28
    18-29 38 36 27
    30-49 37 37 21
    50-64 41 35 19
    65+ 45 32 15
    Pew Research 11/08




    The Money Game

    While the final tabulations for the amounts of money spent by Presidential candidates are not yet available for the 2008 campaign, there are some things we do know.

    Total spending by Presidential candidates in 2008 will be more than double what it was in 2004, and 2004 was more than double 2000. Based on reports filed through October 20th, $1,324,700,000 was spent in 2008, as compared to $717,900.000 in 2004, and $343,100,000 in 2000.



    Ralph Nader is Over

    The number of voters has increased and Nader's share has fallen. The pinnacle of his popularity came in 2000.

    2008 701,139
    2004 463,655
    2000 2,882,738
    1996 684,902




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