April 11, 2009 11:53 AM
2010 Congressional Campaigns
The 2010 election is effectively the first electoral test for Barack Obama. Of course, his name is not on the ballot. If a voter is unhappy with the President's performance, her/his only recourse is to vote against the Democrat on the ballot from his/her Congressional District. Or in those States in which there is a Senate election on the ballot, the Democratic candidate in those States.Here is what that first bi-election for a new President has looked like since Franklin Roosevelt. The results relate to the President's Party.
| President | Election | Result |
| Roosevelt | 1934 | Picked up 9 seats in Senate Picked up 9 seats in House |
| Eisenhower | 1954 | Lost 1 seat in Senate - and control Lost 18 seats in House |
| Kennedy | 1962 | Picked up 2 seats in Senate
Lost 4 seats in House |
| Nixon | 1970 | Picked
up 1 seat in Senate - 2 seats went Independent - Dems lost 3 Lost 12 seats in House |
| Carter | 1978 | Lost 3
seats in Senate Lost 15 seats in House |
| Reagan | 1982 | Picked
up 2 seats in Senate Lost 24 seats in House |
| Bush I | 1990 | Lost 2
seats in Senate Lost 8 seats in House |
| Clinton | 1994 | Lost 9
seats in Senate - and control Lost 54 seats in House - and control |
| Bush II | 2002 | Lost 1
seat in Senate - and control Picked up 8 seats in House |
| Obama | 2010 | ? |
During 2008, 36% of Americans identified with the Democratic Party, while 28% dentified with the Republicans. [Gallup 12/08]
63% disapprove of the job Congress is doing. [NYT/CBS 2/09]
It is still pretty early to get a good handle on the 2010 races, in part because there is no way to know how the public will feel about the Obama Administration as they head to the polls.
There are at least seven Senate seats in the Toss Up category, and some of them look a little dicey for the incumbent Parties. Certainly, the Democrats are going to turn heaven and earth to pick up at least two more seats.
When it comes to the House, there is some question how many more net seats there are for the Democrats to pick up. Certainly they will try. But from a policy point of view, their current position in the House is likely to prove sufficient to do just about anything the Democrats want to do.
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 55
- Republicans 42
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
- Open 1
Here is how the 37 Senate elections (17 Democratic incumbents, 20 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)
| Safe Democratic (9) | Leaning Democratic (6) | Toss-Up (7) | Leaning Republican (4) | Safe Republican (11) |
| Arkansas | California |
Connecticut | Louisiana |
Alabama |
| Delaware | Colorado | Florida | Pennsylvania |
Arkansas |
| Hawaii | Nevada |
Illinois | No. Carolina | Arizona |
| Indiana | No. Dakota |
Kentucky |
Oklahoma | Georgia |
| Maryland | Washington | Missouri | Idaho | |
| New York (A) | Wisconsin | New
Hampshire |
Iowa | |
| New York (B) | Ohio | Kansas | ||
| Oregon | So. Carolina | |||
| Vermont |
So. Dakota | |||
| Texas | ||||
| Utah |
||||
| Democrats | Republicans | Ind | |
| Seats not up in 2008 | 38 | 22 | 2 |
| Safe in 2008 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| Leaning in 2008 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Total | 53 | 37 | 2 |
| Toss-ups | 7 (5R / 2D) | ||
| Open | 1 |
The U.S. House of Representatives
- Democrats 255
- Republicans 199
- Vacancy 1
| 4/1/10 | |
| Total Dem | 255 |
| Solid Dem | 204 |
| Likely Dem | 29 |
| Lean Dem | 20 |
| Toss-Up | 2 |
| D | 2 |
| R | 0 |
| Lean GOP | 6 |
| Likely GOP | 26 |
| Solid GOP | 147 |
| Total GOP | 179 |
