October 16, 2009 11:57 PM
Healthcare: Moving Along
This past Tuesday, the Senate Finance Committee passed out the so-called Baucus bill. Now the "fun" begins.The "fun" in the Senate will take place in Majority Leader Harry Reid's conference room. Here will convene a small group of principals for the purpose of merging the Senate Finance Committee bill and the separate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee bill. This combined bill will then move to the Senate floor, probably the week of October 26th. The floor debate is expected to take 2 to 3 weeks.
The House will take its bill up in the last week of October or early in November. The Speaker has announced that it will be handled before Thanksgiving. Presumably, the House will want to act before the Senate is done so as to retain as much negotiating room as possible before the conference.
In a series of national polls taken during September approval of the President's handling of health care has ranged from 48% to 41%. Disapproval has ranged from 45% to 51%. [NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT, CBS, WP/ABC, Gallup, Quinnipiac]
By 41% to 39%, Americans think the Obama plan is a bad idea, and by 36% to 19% they think quality will get worse rather than better. [NBC/WSJ 9/09]
47% believe that Obama will do a better job of handling healthcare than will Republicans in Congress. [Quinnipiac 9/09]
51% to 40% believe that it is the responsibility of the Federal Government to guarantee health insurance for all Americans. [CBS/NYT 9/09]
50% believe that if the healthcare system is changed, the quality of their healthcare will remain the same. 32% think it will get worse. [WP/ABC 9/09]
80% of Americans are "satisfied" (39% very satisfied) with the quality of their medical care. Only 61% are satisfied (20% very satisfied) with the cost of medical care.
37% are at all confident, and another 19% are not confident that the President's plan can be paid for with cuts in Medicare and other parts of the existing healthcare system.
There is no stomach among the vast majority of Americans (78% - 85%) for a healthcare reform plan that would raise taxes on the middle class, cause middle-class Americans to pay more for healthcare, restrict the doctors they could see or the medical treatments that might be available, or that the quality of health care for middle-class Americans would get worse. [Gallup 9/09]
Those who have made up their minds about the need for a healthcare bill favor its passage by 40% to 36%. When "leaners" are included in the tally, 51% favor passage, while 41% oppose. [Gallup 10/09]
Folks are roughly even, 38% to 40%, on whether they would advise their member of Congress to vote for or against the bill. Only among those 18-29 years old is there a plurality that would advise their member of Congress to vote for a healthcare bill. The older you are, the less likely you are to advise your
| Advise to vote for | Advise to vote against | |
| 18-29 years | 36% | 23% |
| 30-49 years | 37% | 41% |
| 50-64 years | 40% | 42% |
| 65 years + | 32% | 42% |
| [Gallup 9/09] | ||
[Note: Those 45 years of age and older will make up roughly 62% of the 2010 mid-term electorate. See table under 2010 Congressional Campaigns.]
Here is another example of the relevance of the wording of a question.
When asked whether or not it is the responsibility of the Federal Government to make sure that all Americans have healthcare coverage – by 54% to 41% – they say yes.
When asked separately whether the Federal Government or Americans themselves should be primarily responsible for making sure their families have health insurance – by 61% to 37% – they say Americans themselves should be responsible.
Even with all the tempest around the healthcare system, Americans suggest the medical field, more than any other profession, to young men and women seeking career advice. [Gallup 8/09]
