2010 Congressional Campaigns

In July, Gallup reported a generic (if the vote were held today) ballot in favor of the Democrats by 50% to 44%. By October, that margin declined to 46% to 44% in favor of the Democrats. Then, in early November, came a reversal; the Republicans topped the Democrats by 48% to 44%. Most recently, the Democrats again have a slight advantage, 48% to 45%.

You'll recall that the Democratic margin before the 2008 election was 15 points, 54% to 39%.

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68% disapprove of the job being done by Congress according to the mid- December NBC/WSJ survey. Only 22% approve. This is the lowest score recorded for the Congress in that survey since January 2009, when a similar number expressed their disapproval.

Those numbers are confirmed by a recent Gallup survey which found 69% disapproval and 25% approval of the job being done by Congress. A December Fox survey paints a slightly better picture, finding only a 59% disapproval.

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34% say they rate the current Congress as one of the worst when it comes to performance and accomplishments. Another 24% say it is below average, bringing the total negative rating to 58%. This is the most negative rating recorded in the NBC/WSJ survey, which first asked this question in the fall of 1990. In October 1994, only 16% rated that Congress as being one of the worst.

81% of Americans feel that 2009 was a year in which the Democrats and Republicans in Congress represented a period of division with little willingness to compromise. In January 2009, when asked to look ahead at the coming year, a plurality of 48% thought the year would be one of unity and working together by the two Parties.

The preference of the public remains marginally for a Democratic-controlled Congress, by 43% to 41%. In November 2008 there was a preference for Democratic control by 12 points, and in October 2006 the Democratic margin was 15 points. [NBC/WSJ 12/09]

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U.S. Senate

In the U.S. Senate the position of Democratic incumbents who must face the voters in 2010 continues to be problematic. For all practical purposes the Connecticut race is now rated as Leaning Republican. Senator Chris Dodd (D) does not seem able to overcome the drop in popularity that followed his unsuccessful run for the Presidency.

North Dakota Democratic Senator Byran Dorgan is in good shape for re-election so long as Republican Governor John Hoeven does not enter the race. The governor has not yet made his intentions clear. This is a free race for the Governor, since he will still be governor if he makes the Senate run and loses. If he enters the race, this contest between two very popular public officials will be rated as a Toss-Up.

The Pennsylvania race will be interesting. Republican turned-Democrat Arlen Spector has a May 18th primary date with Congressman Joe Sestak. Former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey is likely to make the general election a real slug fest.

• Democrats 58
• Republicans 40
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 37 Senate elections (19 Democratic incumbents, 18 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)



[* Gillibrand]

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The U.S. House of Representatives

When it comes to the potential re-election of their representative in Congress, 49% now think it is time to give a new person a chance, as opposed to 38% who say their representative deserves to be re-elected.



The number of seats that the Cook Political Report rates as solidly Democratic has dropped by 30 seats since the beginning of the year, from 204 to 174. The total number of solidly Republican seats has grown from 147 to 151. Two Democratic seats are now seen as in the Republican column, while 1 Republican seat is now leaning Democratic.

• Democrats 258
• Republicans 177
• Vacancy 3

[As always, thanks to the Cook Political Report, which is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].

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Pollsters Bennett, Petts & Normington have opined that the approval rating of the President drives his party's gains or losses in mid-term elections. Their conclusion is that losses of more than 20 seats only occur when a President's approval rating slips significantly below 50%.

The following is a summary of mid-terms beginning with 1978.

1978

- President Carter
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 48/34
• October 49/36

- Incumbent President House seat losses - 15

1982

- President Reagan
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 42/48
• October 42/48

- Incumbent President House seat losses - 20

1986

- President Reagan
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 63/26
• October 63/29

- Incumbent President House seat losses - 5

1990

- President Bush I
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 67/20
• October 54/36

- Incumbent President House seat losses - 8

1994

- President Clinton
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 44/51
• October 41/52

- Incumbent President House seat losses - 54

1998

- President Clinton
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 63/35
• October 65/32

- Incumbent President House seat gains - 5

2002

- President Bush II
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 66/30
• October 62/31

- Incumbent President House seat gains - 8

2006

- President Bush II
- Gallup job approval ratings 2 months before election

• September 44/51
• October 37/58

- Incumbent President House seat losses - 30

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