2010 Congressional Campaigns

50% of registered voters would vote to "defeat and replace every single member of Congress" including their own representative. An average of 72.5% would do so whether it meant that the Democratic Party or the Republican Party would control the majority in Congress. 47% would not vote to replace the whole Congress. [NBC/WSJ 3/10]

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65% of adults think that most members of Congress don't deserve re- election. [Gallup 3/10]

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77% of those surveyed by the NBC/WSJ and 72% of those surveyed by WP/ABC – in March – disapprove of the job being done by Congress. 17% and 24% approve. This level of disapproval has not been seen in the NBC/WSJ survey since October, December and June 2008. In the WP/ABC survey this high a level of disapproval was last seen in October 1994. Gallup has disapproval of Congress at 80%.

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In mid-March 2010, adults generally continue to prefer a Democratic- controlled Congress by 45% to 42%. [NBC/WSJ]

Early in the 4th week of March, registered voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their Congressional district by 48% to 44%. [WP/ABC] In February, this same survey found registered voters voting for the Republican candidate in their district by 48% to 45%.

A Gallup survey conducted through out the 4th week in March found registered voters preferring the Republicans by 47% to 44%. A separate Gallup survey conducted March 26-28 reported the Republican margin at 46% to 45%.

A series of major polls conducted between March 12 and 29, when averaged, show Republicans come out on top by a couple of points.

It may be a little early in the cycle to test likely voters, but Fox/Opinion Dynamics did make that cut in a recent survey, and found them voting for the Republican candidate in their district by 42% to 38%.

When Democrats regained control of the House in the 2006 election, they had an 11-point margin over Republicans on this question.

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When asked whether specific issues will be important to their vote for Congress in November, here is how they responded: Economy 93% – Unemployment 86% – Healthcare 82% – Federal Budget Deficit 79% – Terrorism 76% – Situation in Afghanistan 69% – Environment.global warming 46%. [Gallup 3/10]

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To the extent that mid-term elections are at least an indirect referendum on the occupant of the White House, Democrats in contested races this year have a particular problem. By 60%-31%, registered voters prefer that different Parties control the White House and the Congress. [NBC/WSJ 3/10]

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Just after passage of the healthcare reform legislation, The Pew Research Center asked a group of people to provide a single word that best described their "current impression of Congress."

86% of all words chosen were negative.

The eight words most often mentioned (in order of most often mentioned first) were dysfunctional, corrupt, self-serving, inept, confused , incompetent, ineffective, lazy.

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Amy Walter, Editor of the Hotline, wrote an excellent column in the February 2nd issue of the National Journal. She makes two points that are well worth considering as we assess the current mood in the country. The statements...

Is it "anti-incumbent" or "anti-incompetent?”

Don't confuse "mood with a movement."

Retirements

To date (3/31) there have been more retirements in the United States Senate (9) then in any election beginning with the 1990 election. In the U.S. House there have been more retirements this year (35) than in any year during the period, other than the 1994 and 1996 elections.

Of the 9 Senate retirements, 5 of the incumbents are Republicans and 4 are Democrats.

Of the 35 House retirements, 18 of the incumbents are Republicans and 17 are Democrats.

Of the 18 Republican seats, 3 of them have a Democratic Cook PVI. However, of the 17 Democratic seats, 8 have a Republican PVI. [PVI = Presidential Voting Index]

Total Retirements

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U.S. Senate

Since the first issue of WW in this cycle, April 2009, the number of Senate seats that are Solid or Leaning Democratic have dropped from 15 to 10. The number of Solid or Leaning Republican seats has grown from 15 to 18. The substantial majority with which the Democrats started the cycle is moving away from them.



Of the 8 Toss Up races, 5 lean to the GOP, 1 to the Democrats, and 2 are even.

• Democrats 58
• Republicans 40
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 36 Senate elections (18 Democratic incumbents, 18 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office) [*Gillibrand]



Assuming (as is likely) that Democrats retain control of the Senate after the 2010 election, their majority in that body will be severely challanged in the 2012 election. In that year 21 Democratic seats, 2 Independent seats, and only 9 Republican seats are scheduled to be on the ballot.

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The U.S. House of Representatives

The number of seats that the Cook Political Report rates as solidly Democratic has dropped by 42 seats since the beginning of 2009, from 204 to 162. The total number of solidly Republican seats has grown from 147 to 160. The number of Toss-Up Democratic seats is at 22, up from 2 in April 2009. The number of Toss-Up GOP seats is at 2, up from 0 in April 2009.

Various organizations who review and rank House races suggest Democratic losses in the Fall of 25-35 seats.

• Democrats 258
• Republicans 177
• Vacancy 3

[As always, thanks to the Cook Political Report, which is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].

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