July 30, 2010 11:58 PM
The President
Roughly speaking, President Obama's overall job performance rating is down slightly from where it was in January. He is in slightly better shape than Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were at this time, and substantially ahead of where Jimmy Carter was at this stage.The record is there -- the stimulus, healthcare reform, new financial regulation, and a number of other significant initiatives. The question is how these legislative successes will impact the 2010 elections.
Many Democratic members of the House of Representatives are angry with him for insisting, with the House leadership, that they take a series of difficult votes. Those votes have left many of them in trouble in their home Districts.
Further, many Members of Congress wonder whether he and his Administration really care whether they win or lose.
To make matters worse, Members are very much aware that there is an historical connection between the job approval rating of the President and how his Party does in mid-term Congressional elections.
Large parts of the business community, well beyond the financial sector, have come to believe that the President is disdainful or dismissive of the role they can play in the efforts to rebuild the economy.
The President is setting out to prove that both concerns are wrong. Time will tell whether he is successful. But this may be a case where first-class rhetoric and public appearances are not enough.
| NBC/WSJ | NYT/CBS | WP/ABC | |
| Obama overall job approval | |||
| July 2010 | -- | -- | 50/47% |
| June 2010 | 45/48% | 47/43% | -- |
| March 2010 | 48/47% | 49/41% | 53/33% |
| February 2010 | -- | 46/45% | 51/46% |
| January 2010 | 48/43% | 50/40% | 53/44% |
| December 2009 | 47/46% | 50/39% | 50/46% |
| October | 51/42% | -- | 57/40% |
| September | 51/41% | 56/33% | 54/43% |
| August | 51/40% | -- | 57/40% |
| July | 53/40% | -- | 58/37% |
| June | 56/34% | 63/26% | 65/31% |
| April | 61/30% | 66/24% | 69/26% |
| February 2009 | 60/26% | 62/15% | 68/25% |
When matched against the approval ratings of the last 8 Presidents in July of the 2nd year of their initial terms in office, Obama is now 6th, just ahead of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. [Based on Gallup surveys.]
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Eisenhower | 75% | 20% |
| GW Bush (II) | 69 | 26 |
| Kennedy | 66 | 23 |
| G Bush (I) | 60 | 25 |
| Nixon | 56 | 33 |
| Obama | 44 | 47 |
| Reagan | 42 | 46 |
| Clinton | 42 | 49 |
| Carter | 39 | 44 |
Here is another cut at comparing Obama with the same group, this time based on their average approval ratings in the 6th quarter (April 20 - July 19) of their respective terms.
| Average approval | |
| G Bush (II) | 74.9% |
| Kennedy | 71.3% |
| G Bush (I) | 64.8% |
| Eisenhower | 64.6% |
| Nixon | 58.0% |
| Obama | 47.3% |
| Clinton | 46.1% |
| Reagan | 44.2% |
| Carter | 41.8% |
Americans are split on the two biggest legislative victories that Obama has achieved, healthcare reform and additional regulation of financial institutions.
49% disapprove of the healthcare reform legislation; 36% approve. Disapproval is slightly down from March, but slightly up from May. 48% say it will have no effect on their personal healthcare circumstances. Of those that have a view, 33% think it will hurt them, while 13% say it will help.
On the other hand, Americans are positive about the additional regulation of financial institutions. 57% support increased regulation, while 35% oppose it. [CBS July]
Time is treating Bill Clinton very well. His favorable rating is 61%. George W. Bush is not faring so well. His favorable rating is 45%. And bringing up the middle is Barack Obama with 52%.
Shortly after Clinton left office his favorable rating was 39%. It hit 63% in 2007, and then fell precipitously to 50% during the 2008 Presidential campaign, ostensibly based on the nature of some of his comments while campaigning for Hillary Clinton.
Obama started his term with a favorable rating of 78% and has fallen steadily to the current level. But, then, the sitting President has to make hard decisions.
Bush finished his term with a favorable rating of 40%. He fell to 35% early in 2009, and has since risen to his current level. Early this year, he was seen as more responsible for the nation's economic stress than Obama. [Gallup]
Michelle Obama has a higher favorable rating (66%) than Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton (61%), General Petraeus (56%), President Obama, and George W. Bush. [Gallup]
Personal feelings about the President remains in relatively high positive territory, but here too, the period of the health care debate appears to have taken its toll.
| Positive | Negative | |
| June 2010 | 47% | 40% |
| March 2010 | 50% | 38% |
| January 2010 | 52% | 35% |
| December 2009 | 50% | 30% |
| October | 56% | 33% |
| September | 56% | 33% |
| April | 64% | 23% |
| February | 68% | 19% |
| January 2009 | 66% | 14% |
| [NBC/WSJ] | ||
| NBC/WSJ | NYT/CBS | WP/ABC | |
| Obama job approval / disapproval on the economy | |||
| June 2010 | 48/50% | -- | -- |
| March 2010 | 47/50% | 45/45% | 45/52% |
| February 2010 | -- | 42/52% | 45/53% |
| January 2010 | 43/49% | 46/48% | 47/52% |
| December 2009 | 42/51% | 47/43% | 46/52% |
| October | 47/46% | 54/38% | 50/48% |
| June | 51/38% | 57/35% | 56/41% |
| February 2009 | 56/31% | 55/24% | 60/34% |
Here is how Obama is rated on his handling of the Federal budget deficit.
| Approve/Disapprove | |
| July 2010 | 40/56% |
| March | 43/52% |
| February | 40/45% |
| January 2010 | 38/56% |
| December 2009 | 37/56% |
| October | 45/51% |
| September | 39/55% |
| August | 41/53% |
| July | 43/49% |
| June | 48/48% |
| April 2009 | 51/43% |
| [WP/ABC] | |
