The Congress: Is the 2010 Congressional election effectively over?

The die is cast and, with a few exceptions, many, if not most, competitive races in the Senate and House are decided. There is a flood, and it seems to be rolling over the Democrats. Only if there is a sudden increase in interest in the election by Democratic voters will the anticipated outcome be modified.

It is not that the Republicans are so popular. In fact, the Republican Party is less popular than the Democratic Party. In the August NBC/WSJ survey the Democratic Party is rated positively by 33% of respondents, while 44% rate it negatively. The Republican Party is in worse shape, 24% rate it positively and 46% negatively.

In the most recent Gallup report on Party identification, more Americans identify themselves as being Democrats or leaning Democrat, by 44% to 41%, than as Republicans. This is a slight improvement from Gallup’s August survey, which found equal numbers (42%) identifying with each of the Parties.

However, even this latest finding represents a significant drop in the number claiming a Democratic Party affiliation, as well as the spread between the two Parties. The following are the poll’s findings over the last 21 months.



Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to do a “better job of coping with the problems the nation faces over the next few years,” by 40% to 37%.

By 45%-42% Americans think Democrats most represent their values, and by 48%-39% they think Democrats are more concerned with the needs of people like themselves. [WP/ABC 9/10]

Americans trust the Democrat Party more than the Republican party to handle the economy and health care by small margins. They trust the Republican Party over the Democrat Party to handle immigration, Afghanistan, the budget deficit, and taxes by similar margins. [WP/ABC 9/10]

However, the Democrats are the Party in power, and its Congressional members are being held accountable for the fact that life is not going well for so many people.

Only 33% of registered voters say their Member of Congress should be re-elected. 59% say that most Republicans in Congress should not be re-elected, while 58% say the same thing about most Democrats in Congress.

Disapproval of the job being done by the Congress is one subject on which most polls seem to agree. The Real Clear Politics average for August was 73% disapprove – 22% Approve.

Additionally, if you are unhappy with President Obama, one of the ways in which you can specifically express your feelings is by voting against Democrat candidates for Congress.

When they hear about the major accomplishments of the administration and the Congress they do not see how these actions will make their lives better now. In fact they think some of those “accomplishments” are antithetical to what they see as their best interests.

The 2008 election was set up as a “choice” election. Democrats were chosen to continue control of the Congress and to take control of the White House. Voters seem to be coming to the conclusion that they made the wrong choices in 2008, and they are planning to try and rectify their “mistake” in 2010.

There is no doubt that the Democrats will lose seats in the Senate and the House in November; the question is how many?

Those who follow the races most thoroughly (not including the various Party political committees) seem confident that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate, with a narrow 52-53 seat margin, including the two independents.

There are predictions about the future control of the House available around every corner. Some of opinions are worth more than others. But among those who have some credibility, the number of likely Democrat losses ranges from 37 to 60. The two public prognosticators with whom WW is most comfortable are Charlie Cook, who is now predicting a 40 seat Democratic loss, and Stu Rothenberg, who is suggesting a 37-42 seat Republican pickup.

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With Labor Day behind us, it is hard to see what might happen that would boost the fate of endangered Democrat incumbents.

The primary season has not been kind to incumbents. 7 of them have lost primary contests. Among the 4 Republicans are two Senators (Bennett –UT, Murkowski -Alaska) and 2 House members (Griffith –AL 5th and Inglis – SC 4th). The 3 Democrats include 1 Senator (Specter – PA) and 2 House members (Kilpatrick – MI 13th and Mollohan – WV 1st).

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U.S. Senate

The Senate landscape continues to change. The number of Safe Democrat seats has dropped from 8 to 7, while the number of Safe GOP seats has jumped from 13 to 14. There continue to be 12 seats rated as Toss Ups.

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Since the first issue of WW in this cycle, April 2009, the number of Senate seats that are Solid or Leaning Democrat has dropped from 15 to 8. The number of Solid or Leaning Republican seats has grown from 15 to 18 and back to 17. The number of Toss-up seats has grown from 7 to 12.



Of the 12 Toss-Up races, 1 leans Democrat, 6 lean to the GOP and 5 are even.

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 57
• Republicans 41
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 37 Senate elections (19 Democratic incumbents, 18 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office) [*Gillibrand]

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Following her victory in Delaware, most everyone on both sides of the political aisle have written off Christine O’Donnell’s prospects in the general election. There is much to speak for that position. O’Donnell has said some pretty “interesting” things in her past life, and there are hints that she is not the most responsible person in her personal life.

However, this is not an ordinary year, and if it looks to the voters of Delaware that she is being picked on unnecessarily, and if she spends her time talking about the things they care about.....just about anything might be possible.

Here is something to ponder. If Charlie Crist (running as an Independent) wins the Senate race in Florida, with whom will he caucus? In the short run, it would seem logical that he would caucus with the Democrats. He is disappointed with the Republicans in Florida, and it is generally better to be part of the majority than the minority.

On the other hand, if after he is elected, he looks beyond the current Senate, to the 2012 Senate elections he may decide he is better off caucusing with the Republicans from the outset. In 2012, 23 Democrat incumbents are on the ballot, as opposed to 9 Republicans. If he decides to go with the Democrats, he might find himself in the minority two years later.

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The U.S. House of Representatives

There is no question that the Democrats will lose a large number of House seats in the coming election. Theoretically, a 39-seat shift will give the Republicans control. However, there is general agreement that the Republicans will probably lose 3 or 4of the seats they currently hold. If that occurs, the magic number is 42 or 43.

The generic ballot question is considered to be significant when it comes to predicting House elections, but not Senate elections.

The poll that surveys most often on this question is Gallup. For the week of August 23-29 it showed the Republicans winning by 10 points, 51% - 41%. This was the highest spread that Gallup had found for either Party in its history.

In its survey conducted from August 30-September 5, Gallup found an even 46%-46% split on its generic ballot. It has to make you wonder whether something wasn’t a little wacky with one or the other of these surveys. But fear not, in its most recent survey conducted September 6-12, Gallup reported a 5-point Republican advantage, 48%-43%. That makes everything perfectly clear.

There are often differences in result if the question is asked of likely voters rather than registered voters. Especially in a mid-term election, the number and nature of the voters who will actually come out on election day is dramatically different. An example of this difference shows up in the last WP/ABC survey (8/30-9/2). Registered voters said they would vote Republican by 47%-45%. Likely voters went Republican 53% to 40%.

A second example is the September 10-14 NYT/CBS survey. Among all adults the Democrats are up +4 percentage points. Among likely voters, the Republicans are up +2 percentage points.

In the surveys noted below the question is asked of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.

Set out below are results from a series of surveys conducted since early summer.



The NBC/WSJ survey puts the question slightly differently than most of the others: it asks respondents for their preference for the outcome of the coming Congressional elections. Therefore, its results for this summer are listed separately. So far this year, it is questioning registered vs. likely voters.

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For at least the last 30 years the incumbent President’s Party has not gained seats in a mid-term election.

One of the indicators of how many seats a President’s Party will lose is the President’s approval rating leading up to the election in the Gallup survey. Other apparent indicators, at least since 1994, are the Wrong Track number in the NBC/WSJ survey (ex: are things in the country on the wrong track) and the disapproval of Congress number in the ABC/WP survey.

Here is what the numbers looked like in late August and early September of the election years listed below.



The number of seats that the Cook Political Report rates as solidly Democrat has dropped by 43 seats since April 2009, from 197 to 154. The total number of solidly Republican seats has grown from 139 to 161. The number of Toss-Ups has grown from 5-45 seats. Of the current Toss-Ups, 42 are currently held by Democrats. This is an increase of 38 since April 2009 and an increase of 12 since July 2010.

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The fact that there are more than 100 conservative candidates on the ballot likely works for the Democrats. These folks are more likely to siphon votes away from the Republicans.

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 256
• Republicans 179

[As always, thanks to the “Cook Political Report,” which is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].

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