October 28, 2010 3:59 PM
The Congress
Since the first issue of WW in this cycle, April 2009, the number of Senate seats that are Solid or Leaning Democrat has dropped from 15 to 10. The number of Solid or Leaning Republican seats has grown from 15 to 23. The number of Toss-up seats has grown from 7 to 12 and then fallen back to 4.| Solid D | Lean D | T-up | Lean R | Solid R | |
| October 28, 2010 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| October 2010 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| September 2010 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| July 2010 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 13 |
| April 2010 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| April 2009 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Of the 4Toss-Up races, 1 leans Democrat, 1 leans GOP, and 2 are even.
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 57
- Republicans 41
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
| Safe Democratic (8) | Leaning Democratic (2) | Toss-Up (4) | Leaning Republican (6) | Safe Republican (17) |
| Connecticut |
California | Colorado | Kentucky | Alabama |
| Delaware | West Virginia |
Illinois | Louisiana | Alaska |
| Hawaii | Nevada | Missouri | Arizona | |
| Maryland | Washington | New Hampshire | Arkansas |
|
| New York (A) | Pennsylvania | Florida |
||
| New York (B)* | Wisconsin | Georgia | ||
| Oregon |
Idaho | |||
| Vermont |
Indiana | |||
| Iowa | ||||
| Kansas | ||||
| No. Carolina | ||||
| No. Dakota | ||||
| Ohio | ||||
| Oklahoma | ||||
| So. Carolina | ||||
| So. Dakota | ||||
| Utah |
| Democrats | Republicans | Ind | |
| Seats not up in 2010 | 37 | 24 | 2 |
| Safe in 2010 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Leaning in 2010 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Total | 47 | 47 | 2 |
| Toss-ups | 4 (4D) | ||
| Even 3 (CO/NV/WA) | |||
| Lean GOP 1 (IL) |
U.S. House of Representatives
The generic ballot question is considered to be significant when it comes to predicting House elections, but not Senate elections.In the selection of surveys noted below, the "generic" question is asked of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
| Survey | Date | R/D | Difference |
| Gallup | 7/10-12/09 | 44/50 | D+6 |
| Gallup | 3/1-7 | 44/47 | D+3 |
| ABC/WP LV | 8/30-9/210 | 53/40 | R+13 |
| Fox | 9/1-2 | 46/37 | R+9 |
| CNN/OR | 9/1-2 | 52/45 | R+7 |
| Gallup RV | 9/6-12 | 48/43 | R+5 |
| NYT/CBS | 9/10-14 | 36/40 | D+4 |
| NYT/CBS LV | 9/10-14 | 40/38 | R+2 |
| Gallup | 9/13-19 | 45/46 | D+1 |
| CNN/OR | 9/21-23 | 53/44 | R+9 |
| Gallup | 9/20-26 | 46/46 | -- |
| Fox | 9/28-29 | 44/38 | R+6 |
| Gallup | 9/23-10/3 | 53/40 | R+13 LV (Higher turnout) * |
| 9/23-10/3 | 56/38 | R+18 LV (Lower turnout) * | |
| ABC/WP | 9/30-10/3 | 49/43 | R+6 LV |
| CBS | 10/1-5 | 45/37 | R+8 LV |
| CNN/OR | 10/5-7 | 52/45 | R+7 LV |
| Gallup | 10/7-17 | 48/43 | R+5 RV |
| 10/7-17 | 53/42 | R+11LV (Higher turnout)* | |
| 10/7-17 | 56/39 | R+17LV (Lower turnout)* | |
| Fox | 10/11-13 | 48/39 | R+9 LV |
| Pew | 10/13-18 | 50/40 | R+10 LV |
| Gallup | 10/14-24 | 48/44 | R+4 RV |
| 10/14-24 | 52/43 | R+9 LV (Higher turnout) | |
| 10/14-24 | 55/41 | R +14 LV (Lower turnout) | |
| Newsweek | 10/20-21 | 45/48 | D+3 LV |
| NYT/CBS | 10/21-26 | 46/40 | R+6 LV |
| Bloomberg | 10/24-26 | 47/44 | R+3 LV |
Gallup Lower turnout assumes that 40% of eligible Americans will vote. Higher turnout assumes that more than 50% will vote.
The NBC/WSJ survey puts the question slightly differently than most of the other surveys: it asks respondents for their preference for the outcome of the coming Congressional elections.
| Survey | Date | R/D | Difference | ||
| NBC/WSJ | 6/10 | 45/43 | R+2 | ||
| NBC/WSJ | 8/10 (early) | 42/43 | D+1 | ||
| NBC/WSJ | 8/10 (late) | 43/43 | 0 | LV 49/40 | R+9 |
| NBC/WSJ | 9/22-26/10 | 44/44 | 0 | LV 46/43 | R+3 |
| NBC/WSJ | 10/10-14/10 | 44/46 | D+2 | LV 50/43 | R+7 |
One of the indicators of ho many seats a President's Party will lose in a mid-term, as noted above, is the President's approval rating leading up to the election in the Gallup survey. Other apparent indicators, at least since 1994, are the Wrong Track number in the NBC/WSJ survey (e.g.: are things in the country on the wrong track?) and the disapproval of Congress number in the ABC/WP survey.
Here is what the numbers looked like in late September/early October of the election years listed below.
| President
Job Approval |
Wrong Track |
Job Disapproval of Congress |
Seats Lost | |
| Carter 1978 | 49% | -- | -- | -15 seats |
| Reagan 1982 | 42% | -- | -- | -20 seats |
| Reagan 1986 | 63% | -- | -- | -5 seats |
| Bush I 1990 | 56% | 59% | 63% | -8 seats |
| Clinton 1994 | 41% | 55% | 78% | -54 seats |
| Clinton 1998 | 65% | 31% | 44% | -5 seats |
| Bush II 2002 | 62% | 42% | 43% | -8 seats |
| Bush II 2006 | 37% | 61% | 66% | -30 seats |
| Obama 2010 | 46% | 59% | 76% (NYT/CBS) |
59% think it is time for a new person to be their representative in Congress. 80% think it is time for most people in Congress to be replaced. [NYT/CBS 10/26]
The number of seats "The Cook Political Report" rates as solidly Democrat has dropped by 51 seats since April 2009, from 197 to 146. The total number of solidly Republican seats has grown from 139 to 162. The number of Toss-Ups has grown from 5-40 seats. Of the current Toss-Ups, 38 are currently held by Democrats. Two are held by Republicans.
| 4/1/09 | 10/28/10 | ||
| Solid Dem | 197 | 134 | (-63) |
| Likely Dem | 36 | 25 | (-11) |
| Lean Dem | 19 | 32 | (+12) |
| Total Dem | 252 | 190 | (-62) |
| TOSS-UP |
5 |
47 | (+42) |
| Total GOP | 178 |
198 | (+20) |
| Lean GOP | 4 |
22 | (+18) |
| Likely GOP | 35 |
14 | (-21) |
| Solid GOP | 139 | 162 | (+23) |
The U.S. House of Representatives
- Democrats 256
- Republicans 179
| 4/09 | 12/09 | 7/10 | 9/10 | 10/13/10 | 10/28/10 | |
| Total Dem | 252 | 242 | 221 | 209 | 198 | 190 |
| Solid Dem | 197 | 174 | 154 | 154 | 141 | 134 |
| Likely Dem | 36 | 45 | 34 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Lean Dem | 19 | 23 | 33 | 30 | 32 | 31 |
| Toss-Up | 5 | 19 | 33 | 45 | 40 | 47 |
| D | 4 | 16 | 30 | 42 | 38 | 46 |
| R | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Lean GOP | 4 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 22 |
| Likely GOP | 35 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| Solid GOP | 139 | 151 | 161 | 161 | 162 | 162 |
| Total GOP | 178 | 174 | 181 | 181 | 197 | 198 |
[As always, thanks to "The Cook Political Report." It is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].
