The Congress: Both Houses are in Play

Control of both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives is in play in the November 2nd election.

At least in terms of the issues that are dominating this election, the election is over, we just do not yet know who has won. As with most elections, it is all about turnout. Who will care enough to make the effort to vote. It is axiomatic that people who choose not to vote are in fact voting through their failure to participate.

Much of the strong Republican showing in this election is driven by the fact that 66% of Republicans express a high interest in the 2010 election. Only 52% of Democrats share that view. [NBC/WSJ 0/10]

36% have trust and confidence in the Legislative branch. This compares with 71% in 1973; 54% in 1997; 65% in 2001; and 45% in 2009. [Gallup 10/10]

In 4 surveys conducted between 9/13 and 10/3, 74% of Americans disapprove of how the Congress is doing its job, while 20% approve. [Gallup, NBC/WSJ, FOX, ABC/WP].

More specifically, 61% disapprove of the job that the Democrats are doing in Congress, and 67% disapprove of the job being done by the Republicans. [WP/ABC 10/10]

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By 51% to 40%, Americans approve of the job being done by their own representative in Congress. [WP/ABC 10/10]

Yet 25% would vote for an independent candidate for Congress. 56% favor giving a new person a chance, and 48% would vote to replace every Member of Congress. [NBC/WSJ]

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In April 2009, 53% thought that the Republicans and Democrats in Washington were “bickering more.” This month 77% have that view. [PEW 10/10]

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U.S. Senate

Up until the last few weeks, most observers agreed that the Democrats would lose a number of seats. It was generally assumed the margin would be 52 or 53 seats, including the 2 Independents.

Today it is not hard to describe, and many people have, the circumstances under which the Democrats would lose their majority.

WW has looked to see whether there is any correlation between the unemployment rates and the home foreclosure rates in States that are currently represented by Democrats, and in which Democratic Senate candidates (incumbents and non-incumbents) are in races in which their election is not considered to be Safe Democrat at this time.

The impact of the unemployment rate was based on the individual State rates and how it compared to the national unemployment rate. Where a State ranked in terms of the number of foreclosures vs the number of housing units was used as the standard for evaluating the impact of foreclosures.

The net result is that there does not appear to be any obvious correlation between these two measurements and how the Democratic candidates are doing in this election.

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Consensus seems to be that Democrats will keep control of the Senate by the slimmest of margins. One scenario that has occurred to WW is that the end result is a 50/50 Senate. In that case, the Tea Party candidate’s victory in the Republican primary in Delaware, assuming she loses the general, will have cost the Republicans control of the Senate. Mike Castle, the Republican Congressman that she defeated, was the odds-on favorite to win the general.

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Since the first issue of WW in this cycle, April 2009, the number of Senate seats that are Solid or Leaning Democrat has dropped from 15 to 8. The number of Solid or Leaning Republican seats has grown from 15 to 21. The number of Toss-up seats has grown from 7 to 12 and then fallen back to 8.



Of the 8 Toss-Up races, 1 leans Democrat, 3 lean to the GOP and 4 are even.

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 57
• Republicans 41
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 37 Senate elections (19 Democratic incumbents, 18 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office) [*Gillibrand]

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The U.S. House of Representatives

Listening to those who spend the most time keeping track of House races (other than active partisans), it is hard to find much to argue with the proposition that it is more likely than not that Democrats will lose control of the House in the coming election.

To remind -- theoretically, a 39-seat shift will give the Republicans control. However, there is general agreement that the Republicans will probably lose 3 or 4 of the seats they currently hold. If that occurs, the magic number is 42 or 43.

Nate Silver, at FiveThirtyEight.com, has a model that projects “ a Republican gain of about 48 seats (that could change of course by Election Day)”. He goes further to say he would not dispute a model that made a “best guess” of 56 seats, or 37 seats.

“The Cook Political Report’s” House Editor, David Wasserman, noted that the Democrats chances of losing at least 50 seats are now greater than their chances of holding losses under 45 seats.

The air is filled with “erudite” predictions of Republican pickups in the 60-70 seat range.

A long time Democrat activist called to say he wanted to be on record that the Democrats will control the House by 9 seats. If he turns out to be correct, his identity will be revealed in the next issue of WW.

There are certainly enough seats in play to make possible some of the most aggressive predictions. Stu Rothenberg says there are 97 seats in play, of which 88 are held by Democrats. "The Cook Political Report," as of October 11th, was showing:

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Talking to a variety of pollsters and other students about the coming election, the consensus over/under number is 50-52. It is hard for WW to argue with the likes of those with whom WW has spoken or whose written predictions WW has observed.

WW’s guess is that the Democrats will hold the house by 2 or 3 members or lose it by 10.

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The generic ballot question is considered to be significant when it comes to predicting House elections, but not Senate elections.

In the selection of surveys noted below, the “generic” question is asked of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.



Gallup Lower turnout assumes that 40% of eligible Americans will vote. Higher turnout assumes that more than 50% will vote.

The NBC/WSJ survey puts the question slightly differently than most of the other surveys: it asks respondents for their preference for the outcome of the coming Congressional elections. Therefore, its results are listed separately. So far this year, it is questioning registered vs. likely voters.

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One of the indicators of how many seats a President’s Party will lose is the President’s approval rating leading up to the election in the Gallup survey. Other apparent indicators, at least since 1994, are the Wrong Track number in the NBC/WSJ survey (ex: are things in the country on the wrong track) and the disapproval of Congress number in the ABC/WP survey.

Here is what the numbers looked like in late September/early October of the election years listed below.



The number of seats "The Cook Political Report" rates as solidly Democrat has dropped by 51 seats since April 2009, from 197 to 146. The total number of solidly Republican seats has grown from 139 to 162. The number of Toss-Ups has grown from 5-40 seats. Of the current Toss-Ups, 38 are currently held by Democrats. 2 are held by Republicans.

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The U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 256
• Republicans 179

[As always, thanks to the “Cook Political Report,” which is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].

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The biggest GOP gain in the House since WWII was 55 seats in 1946. The largest gain of Senate seats by either party since WWII was in 1958. (Republicans lost 13 seats and the Senate expanded from 96 to 98 members. [Clarus Research]

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