October 28, 2010 4:00 PM
The End is Near
It appears that the electorate will be more Republican and more conservative than any electorate going back to 1994. Based on Gallup’s last survey before each of the preceding elections, and its surveys between 10/14-24/10, here are the numbers.| 1994 | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | |
| GOP | 49% | 47% | 51% | 45% | 55% |
| IND | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| DEM | 44 | 47 | 45 | 52 | 40 |
| CON | 40% | 45% | 42% | 42% | 48% |
| MOD | 48 | 42 | 40 | 37 | 32 |
| LIB | 12 | 12 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
Public opinion as to whether the country is headed in the right direction (RD) or is on the wrong track (WT) has not changed much since March. By almost 2 to 1 folks believe it is on the wrong track.
| NBC/WSJ
RD/WT |
NYT/CBS
RD/WT |
WP/ABC RD/WT |
|
| October 21-26 | xxxx | 34/61% | xxxx |
| October 14 | 32/59% | xxxx | xxxx |
| October 5 | xxxx | 32/63% (CBS) | xxxx |
| September | 32/60% | 33/60/% | xxxx |
| August (late) | 30/61% | xxxx | xxxx |
| August (early) | 32/58% | xxxx | xxxx |
| June | 29/61% | 32/60% | 37/60% |
| March | 33/59% | xxxx | 38/60% |
| February | xxxx | 33/62% | xxxx |
| January 2010 | 34/54% | 36/55% | 37/62% |
| December 2009 | 33/55% | 37/56% | xxxx |
| February 2009 | 41/44% | 23/68% | 31/67% |
Generally, when the incumbent President's job approval rating is below 50% his Party loses House seats in the double digit range.
| Obama overall job approval (App / Dis) | |||
| NBC/WSJ | NYT/CBS | WP/ABC | |
| October 26 | -- | 45/47% | -- |
| October 2010 | 47/49% | 45/45% (CBS) | 50/47% |
| September 2010 | 46/49% | -- | 46/52% |
| August 2010 | 47/48% | 48/44% (CBS) | -- |
| June 2010 | 45/48% | 47/43% | -- |
| March 2010 | 48/47% | 49/41% | 53/33% |
| January 2010 | 48/43% | 50/40% | 53/44% |
| December 2009 | 47/46% | 50/39% | 50/46% |
| October | 51/42% | -- | 57/40% |
| July | 53/40% | -- | 58/37% |
| February 2009 | 60/26% | 62/15% | 68/25% |
When matched against the approval ratings of the last 8 Presidents in October of the 2nd year of their initial terms in office, Obama continues in 7th place, just ahead of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. [Based on Gallup surveys]
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Kennedy | 63 | 25 (Oct.) |
| GW Bush (II) | 62 | 31 (Oct.) |
| Eisenhower | 61 | 26 (Oct.) |
| Nixon | 58 | 27 (Oct.) |
| Bush (I) | 56 | 33 (Oct.) |
| Carter | 49 | 36 (Oct.) |
| Obama | 44 | 48 (Oct.) |
| Reagan | 42 | 48 (Oct.) |
| Clinton | 41 | 52 (Oct.) |
