State of the Nation

There was a sharp change between January 2009 and January 2010 in the number of folks thinking that the country is going in the right direction, from 20% in 2009 to 36% today. There was little change from January 2010 to January 2011.

---

Americans’ satisfaction with certain aspects of life today has dropped precipitously over the last decade.

---

80% of us believe that the U.S. “has a unique character that makes it the greatest country in the world” (91% of Republicans, 77% of Independents and 73% of Democrats). 66% believe the country “has a special responsibility to be the leading nation in world affairs” (73% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 61% of Democrats). [Gallup 12/10]

---

The closer folks are physically to the center of government, the more favorably they view it.

Over the last 9 years the change in attitudes toward the Federal government is quite dramatic. In 2002, 64% rated the Federal government favorably and a year later it was even higher. Now it is at 38%. Equally dramatic is the number who describe the government unfavorably. It has grown from 27% to 57%.

Attitudes toward State government have also dropped, but not nearly so dramatically, from 62% favorable to 53% favorable. And toward local government the change is even more modest, dropping from 67% favorability to 63%.

---

When asked about the economic condition of the country today, there is some slight improvement in attitudes among Americans.

---

41% of respondents say the economy is getting better. While that is 2.5 times the number that held that view in January 2008 (16%), it is only a 3 point increase since January 2010. [Gallup 2/11]

---

When asked, “What do the American people want?,” one astute observer answered, “To be safe, pay less taxes and give up no benefits.”

---

There has been a shift of attitudes as to whether there should be more or less Federal regulation of business. In February 2009 the public thought there was too little regulation as opposed to too much regulation, by 40% to 28%. Two years later, by 45% to 27%, they think there is too much regulation. [CBS 2/11]

---

When given a choice of a variety of economic issues (unemployment, budget deficit, health care, gas prices, Federal taxes, pension security, housing prices, changes in the stock market) and asked to select the one that is most significant, no issue comes close to “unemployment,” which is listed by 49% of the respondents.

The last time more than 40% of Americans selected unemployment as the most important economic issue was 2003. crossed in 1993. Here is the current list.

• Unemployment 49%
• Federal budget deficit 17%
• Cost of health care 11%
• Gas & energy prices 9%

No other issue on the list was named by more than 3% of the respondents.

[NBC/WSJ 1/11]

---

Further emphasizing the importance of unemployment as the key domestic issue, Gallup reports that 35% of Americans list unemployment as the most important problem facing the country. This is the highest number seen by Gallup since 1983 (41%) . [Gallup 2/11]

When it comes to the unemployment rate, you can choose your measurement of choice, depending on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist.

If you are an optimist your measurement of choice would be that of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which reported that unemployment had fallen from 9.4% in December 2010 to 9.0% in January 2011. If, on the other hand, you are a pessimist, your measurement of choice would be the Gallup survey, which reported that unemployment had increased from 9.6% in December 2010 to 9.8% in January 2011.

Over the last 12 months the highest rate of unemployment reported by BLS was 10.6% in January 2010. The highest rate of unemployment reported by Gallup over the same period was 10.9% in February 2010.

Looking a little more realistically at the unemployment situation, if you are an optimist, the BLS reports that 16.1% of Americans were either unemployed or underemployed in January 2011. That is down from 18% in January 2010. Gallup reports that 18.9% were unemployed or underemployed in January 2011. The high point from Gallup over the previous 12 months was 20.4% in April 2010.

The total number of new manufacturing jobs created in January 2011 was 49,000, but the total number of new jobs created was only 36,000. [BLS]

---

54% believe that America is in a state of decline, while 42% do not share that view. However, 53% believe that things will get better over the next 5 years, while 21% think they will get worse. [NBC/WSJ 1/11]

---

When asked whether each of the following has responsibility for the climate in the country that resulted in the shootings of a Member of Congress and a Federal judge in Arizona, electronic communication and its voices are seen as primary culprits.

---

The public is evenly split 47% to 45% on whether the deficit can be eliminated solely by cutting waste or whether it will be necessary to cut important programs and raise taxes. [NBC/WSJ 1/11]

---

When faced with the question of what Federal expenditures they would favor cutting, only foreign aid draws a majority of Americans (59%) from the list below. When the question is put to Republicans and Democrats separately, there is considerable disagreement, ranging from 4% to 23%. The only one on which the same number of each group agree is Social Security.

---

The military and the high-tech industry are in a separate class when folks are asked to evaluate their confidence in various institutions of American society. One of the surprising/interesting scores was that given to social networking websites, in which only 17% of Americans had a “great deal/quite a bit” of confidence, while 40% had “very little/no” confidence. (The mid-point choice between “great deal/quite a bit” and “very little/none” was “some.”)

---

In NBC/WSJ surveys from July 2009 until January 2011, more Americans than not have expressed the view that Obama’s healthcare plan is a bad idea as opposed to a good idea. In January 39% of Americans held each position.



On the other hand, 55% of Americans say that the healthcare bill should be either expanded or left as is, while 37% would repeal it. [PEW 1/11]

---

An increasing number of American adults, 16.4% ,did not have health insurance during 2010. This is up from 14.8% in 2008. [Gallup 1/11]

---

The number of Americans receiving food stamps has grown by 30% in the last 2 years. As of January 2011, 43 million Americans are using food stamps. This is up from 40 million in 2010, 33 million in 2009, and 30 million in 2008. [UPI.com]

---

10,800,000 homeowners, nearly 1 in every 4, owe more on their homes than they are now worth. [HuffPost]

---

For the first time since mid-2005, Americans have a more positive (47%) than negative (43%) opinion of the Republican Party. The Democratic Party has a 47% negative rating and a 46% positive rating. [Gallup 1/11]

---

18% now view the Tea Party favorably, down from 24% in October 2010. 25% do not view it favorably, and that has not changed since 2010. Only 27% believe the views of the Tea Party reflect the views of most Americans, while 45% say they do not. 2/3rds of Tea Party members say their party’s views reflect the views of most Americans. And, half of those who identify as Republicans think the Tea Party reflects the views of most Republicans.

Among Independents 18% are favorable/19% unfavorable to the Tea Party generally. 28% think the Tea Party’s views reflect those of most Americans; 40% do not share that view. [CBS 2/11]

---

Budget / Debt Ceiling

According to most of the members of the incoming 1st year class in the House of Representatives, their mandate is to cut Federal spending. Not just a little, but a lot. This is also the mantra of the Tea Party.

But a funny thing happened on the way to governing in 2011 after the 2010 election. When the public is asked what Federal spending should be cut, not only is there little that it would like to cut, there is a whole lot it would like to increase.



Go figure.

---

Sometime this Spring, there will be a need to raise the debt limit. There is much conversation going on about who will or will not vote for it. Then there is an ongoing debate as to when the critical moment will come, i.e., when in fact will the government default? There are a variety of devices that the government has used in the past to postpone that inevitable moment. There does seem to be agreement that the length of the delay made possible by these devices is substantially less than it was in the past.

If you listen to the horror stories about what might occur if the debt limit is not raised, it makes “locusts, pestilence, frogs, and the slaying of the first born” look like child’s play.

There does not seem to be any particular roadmap on how this plays out, but it is not about closing the National Parks for a few days. The things that might happen include tax refunds not going out, government salaries not being paid in a timely fashion, interest payments on government debt may be postponed, contract payments owed to large and small companies could be suspended. Ultimately, if the stalemate continues for a sufficiently long time, it could affect the government’s ability to send out Social Security checks.

Of somewhat less direct consequence, the country’s cost of borrowing would likely increase meaningfully for a long period of time. This could well lead to higher borrowing costs for everything from home mortgages to student and auto loans, to loans to small businesses, and credit card debt.

---

Note: For some period of time I have had concerns about the practice of comparing data over long periods of time. For example, is it reasonable to compare the job approval rating of President Carter with that of President Obama, given the changes in the amount and kind of public communication and information that is broadly available? As with most such questions, I asked Peter Hart for his views. He has no problem with this type of comparison. He said in part, “it is like baseball and tennis sport records, the equipment changes, but the records remain.” And, “Overall, the world may change, but the records and the marks are still good benchmarks.”

Return to Home Page