The Congress

At this time in 2009 there were 58 Democrats in the Senate (including 2 Independents) and 1 vacancy. By July 2009, the Democrat caucus had 60 Senators, including the Independents. Theoretically, the caucus had the capacity to end any filibuster.

At the outset of 2009, there were 256 Democrats in the House and 1 vacancy; by the 4th quarter of the year their majority stood at 258.

And then came the 2010 election. Obama said the Democrats had taken a shellacking, and that is not a bad description.

The Republicans took over the House with a 242 seat majority, having picked up 63 Democratic seats. Democrats lost 6 seats, but retained control of the Senate, with a 53-person majority. However, the Democrats’ ability to deal with filibusters was gone, except if a sufficient number of Republicans bolted from their leadership. That will be a rare, if ever, happening.

Congressional job approval is little changed since January 2009.

---

71% of respondents believe that it is at least somewhat important for GOP leaders to consider the policy positions of the Tea Party movement. This includes 88% of Republicans, 72% of Independents and 53% of Democrats. [Gallup 1/11]

---

The Democratic Party is seen in a more favorable light than the Republican Party. It remains to be seen what the future will hold for either Party, given the unavoidable the clash between the incoming class of House and Senate members and the White House.

46% rate the Democratic Party favorably, as opposed to 45% who have the opposite view. 40% see the Republican Party favorably, while 49% see it unfavorably. [NTY/CBS 1/11]

---

The U.S. Senate

Going into the 2012 election cycle the Democrats have already lost one seat. The retirement of Democratic Senator Kent Conrad almost certainly means that a Republican, probably the sitting Governor, will win that State. Effectively, the Democrats go into the election with a 52-person caucus.

Of the 7 Senate races that WW has in the Toss Up category, 6 are Democrats. While a number of these races have not yet developed, and a lot can happen in 20 months, the safe bet today would be that the Republicans will take control of that body.

Senator Jeff Bingaman will not be a candidate for re-election. Having served 5 terms in the Senate, he has apparently decided it is enough. It is too early to suggest how the race to succeed him will progress, but for the moment, New Mexico moves from Safe Democrat to Toss Up.

[Note: To be completely transparent about the fallibility of WW predictions, the following is a quote from the Washington Watch of June 2009: “At the moment, it appears that Democrats are likely to pick up Senate seats in 2010. But it is not a sure thing.” Someone might describe that as an understatement. ]

---

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 51
• Republicans 47
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 33 Senate elections (23 Democratic incumbents (includes 2 Independents), 10 Republican incumbents) look to me at this time (underlining reflects retirement). (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office)

---

The Democrats are setting out to win the necessary 25 seats to regain control of the House. It will be a long haul.

---

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 242
• Republicans 193

[As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” It is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].

---

Of the 63 Democrats who lost their seats in the 2010 election, 35% were in their first terms, 60% were in their 1st or 2nd terms. 3 of those who lost seats were in the 17th, 18th and 19th terms respectively. Here is the whole list:

1st term – 22 members; 2nd term – 16 members; 3rd term – 3 members; 4th term – 3 members; 6th term – 3 members; 7th term – 4 members; 9th term – 2 members; 10th term – 1 member; 11th term – 2 members; 13th term – 2 members; 14th term – 2 members; 17th term – 1 member; 18th term – 1 member; 19th term – 1 member.

---

12 electoral votes will move as a result of the 2010 census.

10 States will lose 1 or more seats. Each of the States is politically Democratic based on Gallop’s political identification measures. (Ohio and New York each lose 2 seats; Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania each lose 1 seat.)

8 States will gain seats. The 5 that are politically Republican will pick up 8 seats (Texas (4), Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah). The 3 politically Democratic States pick up the other 4 seats (Florida (2), Nevada, and Washington).

On the numbers, these changes represent a net gain of 8 electoral votes for the Republicans.

Return to Home Page