April 2, 2011 11:56 AM
2012 Presidential Campaign Has Begun
While there is some talk about someone running against him from the left, Obama’s re-nomination by the Democratic Party is not even a little bit in doubt.This past February, by a margin of 45% to 40%, registered voters said they will probably vote for President Obama in 2012. This compares with April 2003, when 52% said that they would probably vote to re-elect President Bush. [NBC/WSJ 2/11]
Then in March, Obama’s re-election in November 2012 was preferred by 47%. 37% prefer the Republican candidate, whomever that may be. Independents favor Obama’s re-election by a smaller margin of 40% to 34%. [PEW 3/11]
WW will periodically print the results of another “Cook Political Report” chart.
Electoral College 2012
| 1/13/11 | |
| Solid Dem | 186 |
| Likely Dem | 0 |
| Lean Dem | 35 |
| Toss Ups | 98 |
| Lean GOP | 23 |
| Likely GOP | 37 |
| Solid GOP | 159 |
| Solid/Likely Dem | 186 |
| Solid/Likely GOP | 196 |
| Solid/Likely/Lean Dem | 221 |
| Solid/Likely/Lean GOP | 219 |
President Obama blew up the general election Presidential campaign finance system in 2008. The primary financing system was breached years earlier.
If a candidate does opt-in to the primary system, it is fair to assume that he or she is not a serious candidate. Rather it is likely that they are using the contest to enhance their political profile and viability generally.
It is possible to opt-out of the primary system and opt-in to the general election system, as John McCain did in 2008. The size of the general election Federal grant will not be known until early in 2012.
However, even with the relatively short, two-month, general election period, the amount that will be available is likely to be dwarfed by the amounts that the Obama campaign plans to raise. The task for the Republican challenger on the money front is made even more difficult because Obama will not have to spend any money on a primary contest.
The Republican Nomination
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, those who are regular Fox News viewers have slightly different preferences than Republicans/ Republican-leaning Independents generally. Name recognition of those with double digit support is high.| GOP | GOP/Fox News | Name Recognition | |
| Mike Huckabee | 19 | 18 | 89% |
| Mitt Romney | 15 | 17 | 83% |
| Sarah Palin | 12 | 13 | 97% |
| New Gingrich | 12 | 13 | 97% |
| Ron Pa ul | 6 | 4 | 76% |
| Michele Bachmann | 5 | 4 | 52% |
| Mitch Daniels | 4 | 3 | 33% |
| Tim Pawlenty | 3 | 3 | 33% |
| Haley Barbour | 2 | 4 | 42% |
| Jon Huntsman | 2 | 1 | 21% |
| Rick Santorum | 2 | 3 | 42% |
| Gary Johnson | 2 | 1 | 11% |
| Donald Trump | 1 (vol) | x | xx |
| [Gallup 3/11] | |||
The Republican nomination season was to begin in earnest on May 2nd with a debate at the Ronald Reagan Library. That event has now been moved to mid-September, apparently because of a lack of announced top-tier candidates.
Keep an eye on Tim Pawlenty. He seems to be everyone’s second choice. He has opened an exploratory committee and is being warmly received. He is a bona fide Midwestern conservative. His 8-year tenure as Minnesota Governor showed him to be cut from the mold of the current cost-cutting Republican Governors.
Newt Gingrich will likely run, and will likely implode with one line or another.
When prominent campaign strategists sign on with particular candidates it is an indicator of how insiders view the current GOP contest for the Presidential nomination. On that basis, at least for now, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour has to be seen as a favorite in that race. Barbour has signed up GOP strategists with expertise in Florida, New Hampshire, communications generally, and online activity. [Politico Morning Score 3/21/11]
Sarah Palin’s star seems to be fading even among Republicans. In October 2010, Republicans gave Palin a 70%-24% favorable rating. By last month her favorable rating had dropped 12 points, to 58%, and her unfavorable rating has grown by 13 points to 37%. [WP/ABC 10/10, 3/11]
A new form of research has emerged with which to assess the pre-nomination: pre-election support for particular candidates. This new research, referred to as the applause poll, was used by Republican pollster, Frank Luntz, to assess support for potential GOP Presidential candidates at a meeting of the California Republican Party. [Politico Morning Score 3/21/11]
