Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

April 2, 2011 11:55 AM

The Congress

The job approval rating of Congress in March was 18%. Independents are most down on Congress, recording a 15% approval rating.

In December the overall job approval rating was 13%, but in February it had risen to 23%. That jump has now been half eliminated. [Gallup]



The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 51
  • Republicans 47
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
Here is how the 33 Senate elections -- 23 Democratic incumbents (includes 2 Independents), 10 Republican incumbents -- look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office) * Underlining reflects retirement.

Safe Democratic (10) Leaning Democratic (6) Toss-Up (8) Leaning Republican (3) Safe Republican 6
California Connecticut Massachusetts Maine Arizona
Delaware Florida
Missouri North Dakota
Indiana
Hawaii Michigan
Montana Texas Mississippi
Maryland Ohio
Nebraska
Tennessee
Minnesota Pennsylvania Nevada
Utah
New Jersey Washington
New Mexico
Wyoming
New York Virginia  
Rhode Island
  W. Virginia  
Vermont    
Wisconsin    


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2012 30 37
Safe in 2012 10 6
Leaning in 2012 6 3
Total 46 46
Toss-ups 8 (2R/6D)  


Of the 8 Toss-up States, Obama won 4 of them (Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia). McCain won the other 4 (Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and West Virginia).



The U.S. House of Representatives

  • Democrats 242
  • Republicans 193



1/20/11 3/23/11
TOTAL Dem 193 193
Solid Dem 150 151
Likely Dem 27 24
Lean Dem 12 10
Toss-up 10 16
D 4 8
R 6 8
Lean GOP 15 18
Likely GOP 38 38
Solid GOP 183 178
TOTAL GOP 242 242


[As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” It is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].



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