2012 Presidential Campaign Has Begun

The Obama re-election campaign has begun. It will be located in Chicago and led by Jim Messina, a stalwart of the 2008 campaign and Deputy Chief of Staff in the White House up until a couple of months ago. David Axelrod has also returned to Chicago and will reprise his role as a principal advisor. The other half of the Axelrod/David Plouffe duo of 2008, Plouffe, is now installed in the White House overseeing communication and politics, i.e., the inside player with “campaign” responsibilities.

President Obama’s decision in 2008, to be the first general election candidate to reject general election Federal funding, essentially blew up that Federal program. No future general election candidate will dare limit his/her general election campaign expenditures to the limits provided under the Federal program. [Federal primary campaign funding had effectively ended in previous campaigns.]

Having spent $103,000,000 in the 2008 primary, the Obama campaign then spent an additional $672,000,000 in the general election, a total of $775,000,000 for the cycle.

A variety of media commentators predict that Obama’s 2012 campaign will break through the $1 billion mark.

The other financial change in the Obama campaign approach to the 2012 election has to do with independent expenditure committees. In 2008 Obama was quite forceful in insisting, as a matter of principle, that there be no independent expenditure committees operating on his behalf in that election. And one or more efforts to create this independent funding source were closed down.

While there is no “public” indication that the President has changed his position, two former Obama White House staff members have announced, and are organizing, such a committee without apparent objection from the White House.

The ostensible reason for this change in position is the Supreme Court decision that permits corporations to contribute to these committees. It couldn’t be that this might be a tight election.

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The President is able to campaign for election between now and November 2012 with little or no intra-party interference, although the Republican candidates will be teeing off on the President non-stop.

The potential Republican nominee is likely to be in a vigorous contest, at least until early to mid-spring 2012. His or her capacity to match Obama’s general election spending is problematic.

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The Republican Nomination: And Then There Were 13

The Republican nomination race is warming up. At least 17 people have been touted for or indicated an interest in thinking about or securing the Republican nomination. 4 of those people have already announced that they are not going to engage in this race.

The chart below notes the status of each of these people. For those of you who are not familiar with McCotter, he is Thaddeus McCotter, the Republican Congressman from the 11th District of Michigan. McCotter recently announced that he is not going to challenge Debbie Stabenow. He has been mentioned as a Presidential candidate by a number of pundits, and, according to the Detroit Free Press, “McCotter seems genuinely bemused by the talk—though he is not outright rejecting it—.”

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee announced they are not running in a straight forward manner, consistent with their understanding that nothing is of less interest than a person who decides not to run.

Donald Trump had a news conference to announce that he prefers another season as the ring master of Celebrity Apprentice, but....said, “I maintain....I would be able to win the primary and, ultimately, the general election.” Trump had experienced the kind of scrutiny over the last several weeks that comes with a Presidential run. He said at an event in Nashua, “Nobody said it was going to be easy, but I had no idea I would get hammered in the way I’ve been hammered the past few weeks.”

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Republican Nomination Score Card

Given the ever increasing number of people who are being talked about as being potential candidates for the Republican nomination for President, WW has decided to publish the following score card until the final field is established. [“Exploring” means that the person has established a Presidential Exploratory Committee or a political action committee designed to fund early efforts.) “Running” means that the person has filed a regular Presidential Committee with the FEC or has made an unequivocal announcement of intention.]



As Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum begin their quest for the nomination, both have been reminded that undisciplined thinking and commentary can be particularly dangerous in this era of 24-hour news coverage and blogging. Santorum’s comment was most out of whack in suggesting that Senator John McCain did not understand certain forms of prisoner interrogation.

Gingrich chose to attack House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to overhaul Medicare. He referred to it as “right-wing social engineering.” It did not take long for a number of prominent Republican pundits to take direct aim at Gingrich, and he wisely, if awkwardly, backtracked.

Neither of these men was riding high before these incidents, and in this day and age these gaffs may be fatal.

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Among Republicans the best known are Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney. No surprise, they also lead in Republicans’ preference for the nomination. (Preferences include second choices of those who had selected Huckabee or Trump.)



All other Republican “candidates” are recognized by less than 50% of Republicans and are preferred as nominee by 4% or less. Pawlenty is known by 48% and preferred by 4%. The least well known is Gary Johnson, at 21%, and the low preference score is owned by Herman Cain. Jon Huntsman is known to 25% of Republicans and draws 2% support. [Gallup 5/11]

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General Election

Any form of match race this early in the process is worth very little. But here are some data points from early May to read and forget.

Obama leads a “generic” Republican candidate 43%-40% in Gallup, and 45% to 30% in the NBC/WSJ survey. The NBC/WSJ numbers are significantly better for Obama than they were in February and March.

In the recent Battleground survey (Politico & GWU) 30% say they will definitely vote for Obama, while 38% say they will definitely not vote for him. However, against specific putative Republican candidates Obama does quite well. The candidate who appears to do best against Obama is Ron Paul. Obama runs ahead of Paul 53%-45%; against Romney 52% - 40%; against Pawlenty 52%-38%; against Gingrich 57%-40%; and against Palin 59%-38% . [5/11 surveys, Gallup, Battleground, NBC/WSJ, CNN/OR]

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There is an issue which, while not garnering a great amount of national attention, may have a significant impact on the outcome of the 2012 election. In up to 35 States efforts are being made, often led by Republican officeholders, to make registration and voting more difficult. The work is being done in the name of preventing voter fraud. While efforts to make voting as difficult as possible are not new, the level of activity seems to be particularly high during this election cycle.

Various proposals would make voter registration more difficult, require photo identification for voting, limit early or absentee voting, cut back the number of hours that polls are open, and other odds and ends that could lead to a new level of challenges of folks attempting to register and vote.

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