Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

June 25, 2011 11:56 AM

The Congress

Approval of the job being done by Congress is at a resounding 17%. This is the 4th lowest rating recorded by Gallup since it began testing this question. The lowest was 13%, recorded just 6 months ago.

42% have little or no confidence in the Congress. 10% do express confidence, but it is likely the lowest confidence level on record going back to 1975. [NBC/WSJ 6/11]


The Senate

Depending on who you talk to, either Republicans are going to take six Senate seats currently held by Democrats/Independents, giving the Republicans a 53/47 margin, or the Democrats will hold the Senate with a tie, in which the Vice President, presuming Obama’s re-election, will cast the deciding vote.

Looking at seats not up in 2012, and seats that are up but are safe or leaning to one Party or the other, Democrats end up with 45seats and the Republicans with 46 seats. Of the Toss-up seats, Obama won 5 of them in 2008 and McCain won 4.



The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 51
  • Republicans 47
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
Here is how the 33 Senate elections -- 23 Democratic incumbents (includes 2 Independents), 10 Republican incumbents -- look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. Incumbent in office) Underlining reflects retirement.

Safe Democratic (9) Leaning Democratic (6) Toss-Up (9) Leaning Republican (4) Safe Republican (5)
California Connecticut Massachusetts Arizona Indiana
Delaware Florida
Missouri Maine
Mississippi
Hawaii Michigan
Montana North Dakota Tennessee
Maryland Ohio
Nebraska Texas
Utah
Minnesota Pennsylvania Nevada
Wyoming
New Jersey Washington
New Mexico

New York Virginia  
Rhode Island
  W. Virginia  
Vermont   Wisconsin  

   


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2012 30 37
Safe in 2012 9 5
Leaning in 2012 6 4
Total 45 46
Toss-ups 9 (2R/7D)  



The U.S. House of Representatives

The generic Congressional ballot is dead even: Democrats 44%/Republicans 44%. [NBC/WSJ 6/11]

53% of registered voters are inclined to look around for someone other than their current Congressperson for whom to vote. 37% are satisfied with the incumbent. [WP/ABC 6/11]

Early reports suggested that the Democrats would lose seats as a result of re-districting. Now it appears that the Democrats will not lose seats, and in fact may pick up a few.

WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data below, through May 16, 2011, is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore the chart below reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through June 21, 2011.

The U.S. House of Representatives

  • Democrats 242
  • Republicans 193


1/20/11 3/28/11 5/16/11 6/21/11
TOTAL Dem 193 193 191 --
Solid Dem 150 151 153 --
Likely Dem 27 24 21 22
Lean Dem 12 10 11 13
Toss-up 10 16 16 17
D 4 8 6 6
R 6 8 10 11
Lean GOP 15 18 16 18
Likely GOP 38 38 41 42
Solid GOP 183 178 177 --
TOTAL GOP 242 242 244 --


[As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” It is the best when it comes to analysis of Congressional races (as well as other electoral matters)].



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