2012 Presidential Campaign

The Republican Nomination

22 people have been tempted or have joined the race.

14 people have announced they are not running, quit the race or written it off 8 people are running.

3 is the number of real players at the moment.

The chart below notes the status of each of these people.

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Of the 10 media sponsored Republican nomination debates, the largest audience – 6.1 million viewers -- was for a Fox/Google sponsored debate in Orlando, Florida on September 22nd. (There is no audience report for the Bloomberg sponsored debate on October 11th , although it is unlikely it came close to the Fox audience.)

As for the straw polls, except for the Iowa Straw poll which drew about 17,000 participants (compared to the 115,000 who participated in the 2008 Republican Caucus), the next largest was Florida where 2,657 people participated (compared to 1,949,498 that participated in the Florida Republican primary in 2008).

Republican nominating process
Debates with one or more media sponsors
Straw polls

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The following chart tracks media and Gallup surveys of the Republican nomination battle since July 2011.

Santorum and Huntsman have never been in it and are not likely to be in it in the future unless everyone else drops out.

Bachmann had a moment, but it has passed. She will likely stay in the race through Iowa, but if she does not come in one or two there, she will be gone from the race.

Perry was the hot new kid on the block from mid-August through mid- September. Since then he has steadily declined as a result of his debate performances and public presentations. One can only describe his attempt to drawn Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi into a debate as desperation. He obviously assumes she would be an easier mark than his fellow Republican candidates. It won’t happen, but he if it did would be in for a big surprise.

Gingrich has slowly and steadily edged up the ladder and has become one of the three leaders. Gingrich is now beginning to face scrutiny of who he has been, what he has done, what he has said, and when he said it.

Cain, who registered at 2% in a late August CNN/OPR survey, is now running neck and neck at the top. He has done this despite allegations of impropriety and demonstrating that there is a lot he does not know. Of recent date, his image has taken a number of hits in current surveys.

And then there is Romney. He has been running steadily at the head of the pack through this half year. Except for a 30 point score in mid-July and a 28 point score in early November, he has not scored above 26% of the Republican vote.

However, in early November, a plurality of Republicans --45% -- were predicting that Romney would be the eventual nominee. The only other candidate in double digits was Cain. [Gallup 11/11]

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It is notable that Cain and Gingrich have been able to maintain their positions even though every known media outlet, including many conservative leaning outlets, have trumpeted their various foibles. At other times, these kinds of foibles would force a person out of the race. There are likely a number of reasons these issues haven’t proved fatal, but here are two. First, Republican voters are still much interested in “anybody but Romney.” Second, they are prepared to “forgive” personal behavior if it means that they will ultimately hear Barack Obama give a concession speech in November 2012.

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The General Election

There is unlimited analysis of the 2012 Presidential election, some of it quite good. WW finds it a bit early for any kind of analysis that deals with the likes of electoral votes.

What is known is that Americans are giving the Republican Party a 9-point advantage over the Democratic Party, 48% to 39%, on the question of which political party will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous .

Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents are split evenly on whether they are enthusiastic about voting in the coming election. 45% are “more enthusiastic” and 44% are “less enthusiastic.” In 2008, 79% were “more enthusiastic.” [Gallup 9/11]

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Obama is essentially tied with a “generic” Republican candidate, 43% for the Republican and 42% for Obama. Among Independents in that “race” there is a 38% to 38% split. Obama gets 79% of the Democratic vote and 3% of the Republican votes. [Gallup 11/11]

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The best portrait of President Obama’s position going into the 2012 election year was written by Peter Hart in a recent memorandum following the most recent NBC/WSJ survey.

“There is one immutable fact about President Obama’s re-election chances – nobody has a more solid 44% base than he does. This may sound inconsequential or even mocking, but this is a major asset. The African-American voter is beyond rock solid, and his core support among Hispanics is impressive. He starts with 44%, even in a three-way contest with Ron Paul as the independent. His positive job rating is 44%, positive feelings toward him are 45%, and in comparing his qualities in a match-up against Romney, he has support in the mid-40s. His base will be invaluable, and this has been underestimated; yet it should not be. There is a sense that there is more to the Obama leadership and story, and many voters in the middle are waiting to see the hope and change they voted for in 2008.”

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Here are the Real Clear Politics averages in the matchup of President Obama and various Republican candidates.

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