State of the Nation

In mid-December, 69% of Americans said that the country is on the wrong track. This is slightly better than the 73-74% who have had that view since August. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

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By 74% to 23% we do not have a favorable opinion of the U.S. economy. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

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The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is 67.7, an increase from 64.2 in November, 60.9 in October, and from the low point of 55.7 in August. It is still below the 74.3 recorded in March. [U of Mich 12/9/11]

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The Gallup survey of unemployment through December 11 ticked up slightly to 8.6% from 8.5% at the end of November. Looking at Gallup’s second number, which it defines as “underemployed” (those who are unemployed and those working part-time but want full-time) is at 18.3% as opposed to 18.1% at the end of November. [Gallup]

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66% believe that the most important problems facing the country today are unemployment and the economy in general. As of December 11th , 51% of Americans describe the economy as poor, while 10% say it is excellent/good. To consider themselves rich, Americans say they would need a median income of $150,000 per year. In 2003, the median income was $120,000. 30% of folks would consider themselves rich if they made $100,000; 18% would feel rich at $60,000; and 15% say they would need a million dollars or more. (Ed. note: The $150,000 amount is just slightly more than the increase in the consumer price index for period the 2003 to 2011.) In March, 56% of us felt better about our personal financial situation. That has dropped to 49% in late November. [Gallup 11/11 unless otherwise noted]

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During the height of the recent recession the individual savings rate rose to 8%. As of mid-November, it has dropped to 3.5%. [WP 11/11] 22% believe the economy generally will get worse in the next year, and 33% say that their personal economic situation has gotten worse in in the past twelve months. [NBC/WSJ 12/11] Data from 2008 shows that, of the top 400 tax payers,

• 30 paid an average tax rate between 0 and 10%
• 59 paid an average tax rate of 30-35%
• 238 had a marginal tax rate of 35% and above
• 17 had a marginal tax rate of 0 to 26%

[WP 12/11]

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76% of Americans believe that this past year has been either one of the worst years for the United States (27%) or, at best, below average (49%). [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

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There has been considerable public attention to the wealth gap between the rich and the poor. It is the core tenant of the Occupy movement. However, 82% of Americans say it is extremely/very important to expand the economy. 70% opt for increasing “the equality of opportunity for people to get ahead if they want to.” Only 46% say it is extremely/very important to “reduce the income and wealth gap between the rich and the poor.” 58% of Americans say that the country is not divided into “haves and have- nots.” Interestingly, when asked to choose which group they were a part of, “haves or have-nots,” 58% said they were “haves.” [Gallup 12/11]

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By 48% to 46%, respondents believe that the government should promote traditional values. 68% have a great deal/fair amount of trust and confidence in local government to handle problems, and 57% have that view about State government. At the other end of the spectrum, only 31% have confidence in the Federal legislative branch, and 47% have that view about the executive branch. [Gallup 10/11]

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While considerable media attention is paid to the role of Wall Street in the country’s current economic situation, the Federal government is blamed for the economic problems facing the country by 64%, while 30% blame Wall Street. Over 70% of Americans trust small-business owners and local business leaders to come up with the ideas for creating jobs in the United States. Only 43% trust the Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to have productive ideas. 52% trust President Obama to have job creating ideas. 22% of small business owners say that complying with government regulations is the most important problem facing them today. Historically, big government has been seen as a bigger threat to the country than big business or big labor. That attitude has not changed, except that the number of people identifying the Federal government as the biggest threat has grown over the last 45 years. While there is always considerable noise about the threat of big labor, it is pretty clear that it is an also-ran in the minds of Americans.

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55% of Americans do not have much faith in the media to report the news “fully, accurately and fairly.” [Gallup 9/11]

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The social safety net is being pulled apart, loop by loop.

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The Occupy Wall Street movement hangs on, but its encampments are being disassembled city by city. So far, the groups who set up camp in New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Boston have been forced to move out, and their housing has been torn down by order of municipal officials. While the movement has not generated enough support to really change government or business behavior, it is interesting how much public attention it has achieved through the actions of a relatively small number of people.

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The 1% describe themselves as slightly more Republican, while the 99% describe themselves as slightly more Democratic. However, philosophically there is little distinction between them. [Gallup 12/11]

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31% of Americans selected the phrase, “the wealthiest one percent getting richer and the middle class declining” as the most personally disappointing event of the past year. 29% named the “lack of economic recovery,” and 27% named “the failure of Congress to reach a compromise on the budget deficit.” [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

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There are striking similarities between the levels of support and the positive/negative evaluations of the Tea Party Movement and The Occupy Wall Street Movement. 27% consider themselves to be supporters of the Tea Party Movement (65% are not). 25% say they are supporters of the Occupy Wall Street Movement (67% are not). 27% say they are positive about the Tea Party Movement. 27% say they are positive about the Occupy Wall Street Movement. 43% are negative about the Tea Party Movement and 44% are negative about the Occupy Wall Street Movement. There is, of course, at least one big difference between the two movements. The Tea Party has identifiable electoral successes in the last round of Federal elections. The Occupy Movement did not come into being until after the last Federal elections. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

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Just 51% of those 18 years of age and over are married. This is a record low. In 2000, 57% of the same age group were married. [WP 12/11]

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There is nothing new in the case of Richard Verone in Gaston, North Carolina, at least nothing has been reported of late in the Gaston, Gazette.

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Where We Are, Where We See Others and Who Best Reflects Our Views

David Winston, of the Winston Group, has done an interesting piece of research which he has kindly allowed WW to reproduce. Using a national sample, Winston asked respondents to place themselves and other individuals and organizations

• on an ideological spectrum on which “9” represents Conservative and “1” represents Liberal, and
• on a spectrum on which “9” means respondents’ views are completely reflected, and “1” means their views are not at all reflected, by the persons or organizations listed.

Americans described their own political ideology as something right of center. Of note is that, when asked who reflects their views, no person or organization on the list received a score better than a 4.56 on the scale of 9.

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If you have not discovered FactCheck.Org and the Washington Post’s Fact Checker, take a gander. Both do an excellent job of laying bare the truth about a variety of campaign claims.

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Peter D. Hart Research Associates

I have known Peter Hart since 1969. We met at the DNC and on the tennis court.

He is my friend, and he is the source of much of what I pass along as my personal “wisdom” about politics.

Recently, he celebrated the 40th anniversary of the company which he formed in 1971, Peter D. Hart Research Associates. It is a premier survey and strategic research firm.

During an evening anniversary celebration, Mark Shields shared the following bits of information with the group.

During this 40-year period Peter’s organization has conducted nearly 7,000 surveys, 6,000 focus groups, and has interviewed nearly 3,000,000 people. (Or as one wag said, 1 person nearly 3,000,000 times).

Peter has, for many years, been the Democratic anchor and pollster for the NBC/WSJ survey.

The quantity of work is quite amazing, but I was struck by two other details as the evening unfolded. First, Peter has drawn together a group of terrific professionals, who guarantee the generational succession of the company, when and if, he decides to slow down. The second observation may be even more important. There are an extraordinary number of people who have worked for this company for multiple decades, making it clear that Peter D. Hart Associates is successful internally, as well as externally.

Congratulations, my friend.

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