December 16, 2011 11:57 AM
The Presidential General Election
At this time a Ouija (pronounced weegie) board may be as useful in predicting the outcome of the 2012 general election as any series of polls, opinions and other pieces of “hard” evidence. With that said, here are some thoughts on the 2012 election.Rather than rely on a Quija board, WW asked Charlie Cook how he would describe the 2012 Presidential election campaign. As always, Charlie has a way of describing an election in plain English.
“The answer depends on two questions. Is the election going to be a referendum or a choice, will it be about economics or demographics? A referendum probably means it’s about the economy. In the absence of a strong turnaround, that’s tough for President Obama. A choice of two competing visions and directions could well be a fairer fight that could go either way. The Democratic argument about demographics is a hard sell. While African American turnout may well remain very high, among young people and Latino voters, replicating the intensity of 2008 is a real challenge.”
There is at least one thing that Obama has going for him in the coming general election. A substantially larger number of people (39%) are quite confident that he has the personal characteristics to be President, versus those who say they are quite confident that either Gingrich (17%) or Romney (20%) have those characteristics.
On the negative side, 34% are not at all confident that Obama has the personal characteristics to be President. Only 31% have this view about Romney but 42% lack confidence in Gingrich. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]
The Obama campaign is growing increasingly optimistic, according the to the headline in a recent Washington Post article, which was written following a briefing for reporters by the campaign’s leadership.
Apparently, one of their reasons for optimism is that a bruising GOP nomination fight will leave the Republican candidate battered. The other reason is that it is starting to appear that Newt Gingrich may be the eventual nominee. A warning – Be careful for what you wish for.
At the briefing, the campaign outlined 5 potential paths to victory.
* Win Florida and its 29 electoral votes.
* Sweep Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa
* Win Ohio and Iowa
* Repeat his 2008 performance and win North Carolina and Virginia
* Win Arizona
There is little question that the campaign is building an election team that is unparalleled in Presidential campaign history. One area in which it will certainly not be equaled or beaten is in the use of technology. For those of you who are interested in the campaign infrastructure, I recommend the article by Julianna Goldman in Bloomberg 12/14/11.
From all appearances, they will be able to fund the campaign they want to run.
A generic Republican candidate for President beats Obama 45% to 43%. However, he bests Romney by 47% to 45%. Obama beats Gingrich 51% to 40%, and Paul by 50% to 37%. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]
When potential voters are pushed on the question of whether they are certain to vote for Obama, 34% said yes. Another 37% say they will vote against him, and 27% will cast their vote based on who is the GOP nominee. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]
49% of self-identified Republicans/Leaners are more enthusiastic about voting in the general election, as compared to 44% of Democrats/Leaners. [Gallup 12/11]
During the first week of December 2011, USA/Today/Gallup conducted a survey of registered voters in 12 swing States: Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. It is matched with a national Gallup survey of national registered voters.
While Obama bests Romney 47% to 46% among national registered voters, he trails Romney among the swing State registered voters, 48% to 43%. He leads Gingrich among national registered voters 50% to 44%, but loses to Gingrich 48% to 45% among swing State registered voters.
