The Republican Nomination

22 people have been tempted or have joined the race.

15 people have announced they are not running, quit the race or written it off.

7 people are still running:

• Michelle Bachmann
• Newt Gingrich
• Jon Huntsman
• Ron Paul
• Rick Perry
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum

2 is the number of real players at the moment

The Goal – 1,142 Committed Republican Convention Delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention August 27-30, 2012.

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Musical Chairs

As the Republican nomination contest has progressed, more Americans (31%) say that their impression of the GOP field has worsened rather than improved (14%). [PEW 12/11]

The leadership of the national Republican nomination battle has moved back and forth since the middle of 2011. At this time, the race has become a contest between two of the candidates, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. It is unlikely that any of the other five candidates will break out before the end of the contest.

First, Romney led and Gingrich was among several also-rans. Then Perry took the lead, Romney roamed in second place, and Gingrich and Cain continued to inhabit the bottom tier.

Romney returned to the lead in September, but Herman Cain had a run, and was essentially neck and neck with Romney, while Gingrich started creeping up a bit. As November dawned, Romney was still in the lead, but by mid-month Gingrich had taken the lead, Romney was a close second, and Cain had started to fade.

In the first week of December, Gingrich took the lead by 15 points over Romney, and Cain collapsed. Romney has now decided that he has to take Gingrich on directly. Gingrich continues to say that he will not attack the others. Except for a little dig here and there, he is doing that. However, he will respond when hit by one of the others.

In the current December NBC/WSJ survey of likely Republican primary voters, Gingrich leads with 40%. Romney is a poor second with 23%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachman follow, with 9% and 8% respectively.

Assuming that the size of the field will continue to decline, a three way race finds Gingrich with 53%, Romney 31%, and Ron Paul in 3rd with 13%.

And if the race were to be held today between Gingrich and Romney, Gingrich would win with 59% to 36%.

But the bloom may be off Gingrich’s political rose. In the most recent Gallup survey the national race is closing, as are State polls.

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The charts below track the movement in this race beginning in July.

First, November through early December.



[* Cain suspended his campaign part way through this survey period. The second choice of those who had selected Cain was used to compute preferences without him.]

The following chart summarizes polling on this subject from mid-July through October.

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There is one other “national poll” that, it is claimed, has been quite accurate in the past. It is the Intrade Prediction Market. Here you can buy and sell shares in the prospects of candidates for President (and other offices), i.e., you are investing on the % probability of that event (election of that candidate) occurring.

As of 9:45 a.m. December 16th, here are the bids for shares in various candidate’s prospects. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

• Romney 61.6
• Gingrich 16.2
• Paul 7.6
• Huntsman 6.1
• Perry 3.5
• Bachmann 1.5
• Santorum 0.6

If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.

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One has always needed a scorecard to keep track of either political Party’s primaries and caucuses, but in the case of the 2012 Republican delegate selection process, you also need a special rule book. (Democrats have been here before.)

*Rule #1 – Any State that selects its delegates before February 1, 2012 will be penalized.

*Rule #2 – Other than the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, any State that begins its process before the First Tuesday in March 2012 will be penalized.

*Rule #3 – Any State, other than the four carve-out States noted in Rule #2, that conducts its process before April 1, 2012 must allocate its delegates on a proportional basis.

*The Penalty – Any State that violates these rules will lose 50% of its delegates and alternates.

[* These items are all part of the same Republican National Committee rule, but broken out for the purpose of the following. ]

The Republican primary season is divided into four tranches.

1st tranche – January 3 – 31, 2012

2nd tranche – February 4 – March 3, 2012

3rd tranche – March 6 – 24, 2012

4th tranche – April 3 – June 26, 2012

January 3 – 31, 2012
Iowa (c), New Hampshire (p), South Carolina (p), Florida (p)

Theoretically, all four States will be penalized for violating Rule #1. However, because Iowa’s delegates are not, in fact, selected until later in the process, it is exempt. Florida is also to be penalized for violating Rules #2 and #3. New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida will lose 50% of their delegates. And, Florida’s remaining delegates will be selected on a proportional basis. (NH, SC, and FL are exempt from the proportionality penalty.)

The following represents the state of the race in each of these States at this time.



* Iowa – PPP 12/11-13/11

* New Hampshire – Insider Advantage 12/12/11

* South Carolina – NBC/Marist 12/6/11

* Florida – NBC/Marist – 12/11/11

February 4 – March 3, 2012
Nevada (c), Maine (c), Colorado (c), Minnesota (c), Missouri (p), Arizona (p), Michigan (p), Washington (c)

Other than Nevada (c) which is exempt, all of the above States are in violation of Rules #2 and #3. All of these States will lose 50% of their delegates, and the remaining delegates must be selected on a proportional basis. (It is possible that the caucus State delegates in this group are selected in the same manner as those in Iowa. They would then be exempt from the 50% loss rule.)

March 6 – 24, 2012
Of the 19 primary and caucus States that commence their processes during this period, their delegates must be allocated on a proportional basis.

April 3 – June 26, 2012
The 21 primaries and caucuses scheduled during this period are free to allocate their delegates proportionally or on the basis of winner take all.

[Note: Any rule established by the Republican National Committee to regulate the delegate selection process (Rules 1-3 above) can be modified by action of the convention prior to the time that delegate votes are cast. Whether and how the convention acts to modify these rules could well depend on the impact such changes might have on the outcome of the nominating process. ]

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In gross terms, 345 delegates are selected in the States starting their processes before March 6th, Super Tuesday. On Super Tuesday, 564 delegates will be selected, bringing the total to 909 delegates, 40% of the total. (However, the number of delegates selected before March 6th may be reduced by 50%.)

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The Trump Primary

Donald Trump decided not to run for the Republican nomination for President. Instead, he set himself up to be a king maker, so to speak.

For reasons that are not entirely clear, a series of the Republican candidates have chosen to “visit” with Trump at his New York headquarters to seek his “advice.” The group includes Gingrich, Romney (he went in the back door), Bachman, Perry, and Cain. Perhaps the best line from one of the folks who did not make the trek came from Jon Huntsman, who said, “I’m not going to kiss his ring and I’m not going to kiss any other part of his anatomy.”

Donald Trump has decided not to moderate “Trump Debate,” scheduled for December 27th. Trump was to be the sole moderator at the debate in Des Moines, Iowa, sponsored by Newsmax Media & Ion TV. It was not turning out to be a candidate magnet. Only Gingrich and Santorum had agreed to participate. Huntsman, Paul, Romney, Bachmann, and Perry had kindly declined.

The given reason for his withdrawl from the debate was that he was not yet willing to say that he would not be an independent candidate for President. Jay Leno had a different view. He said the debate was canceled for “lack of interest.”

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Newt Gingrich

How could it be that Newt Gingrich is doing so well with Republicans for whom family values and a variety of other virtues are so important? 57% of Republicans say they would be less likely to support a candidate who had an extra- marital affair. [PEW 5/11]

The answer may be that they have said to themselves, “So what?” The Republicans are not looking for a minister for their church or for someone who is a proper role model for their children. They want someone who can stand toe-to-toe with President Obama, and make their case in the general election.

Listening to some of the things that come out of Newt Gingrich’s mouth reminds me of a political operative with whom I worked many years ago on multiple campaigns. He also was a person who said just about everything that came to mind, with little filtering. After a while I found that, like many others, I stopped listening to anything he said, and treated each idea as another hair-brained scheme.

A while later I “accidentally” gave some thought to something he had suggested, that I had originally rejected because of the source. I realized that it made a lot of sense, and, in fact, when we put it into play, it had a very positive effect on the project of the moment.

Thereafter, whenever this colleague started to talk, I closed my eyes in an attempt to block out the source. Lo and behold, I came to discover that every X one of his ideas was really terrific.

Similarly, some of what Newt Gingrich says is out of left field, but some of the things he says make sense. The question is whether the far out commentary will make it impossible for the electorate at large to sift through what he has to say and hear that with which they might agree.

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Mitt Romney

The Romney campaign’s original plan seems to have been that he would win the nomination because he would be the last person standing. Survey research from the first four selection events, which shows Gingrich leading in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, and closing the gap in New Hampshire, suggests that that strategy has become very high-risk.

As noted in the tables above, Romney’s share of the potential caucus/ primary electorate is simply stagnant.

It does not seem to be enough to look like a President, have a stable family, be a successful businessman, and former public official. He has tried to stay above the fray, but that is clearly not working.

Romney is dealing with the reality that only 29% of Republican primary voters view him as a conservative, while 53% see him as a moderate. At the same time, 57% see Gingrich as a conservative, and 28% seem him as a moderate. [NBC/WSJ 12/11]

It remains to be seen whether Romney can successfully change his style and his message over the next month and a half.

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Ron Paul

Ron Paul is not going to be the Republican nominee, but he may have the best organized campaign. He is currently running a distant third, but he has more potential to affect this race than anyone else.

If there is one person who knows what he thinks and always says it, it is Paul. His point of view has not changed in all the years he has been in Congress or from his previous run at the Presidency in 2008. He is clearly the most real anti- government candidate in the field. And who else in the field would stand up in New Hampshire and come out for the right to sell and drink raw milk, an issue in that State?

Paul has now run three times for President. He first ran as Independent in 1988 as a Libertarian, and then in 2008 as a Republican. The net result is that while the size of his support group is not as large as others, he probably has the most dedicated group of supporters.

More so than anyone else in the field, when his time comes to leave the race, as it inevitably will, his unfettered support for one of the other candidates could have a real impact.

One of the best pieces I have read about Paul, is Dan Balz’s column in the December 11, 2011 Washington Post.

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And There Went Herman Cain. Or, 4 Weeks in the life of a candidacy

It is hard to imagine that anyone running for President in 2011 would believe that there is any aspect of their life is not fair game once their candidacy becomes real. But, it does appear that Herman Cain thought he was above that kind of scrutiny or that, if it occurred, the public would not care. He also seemed to misunderstand that, if, in fact, you are clueless about aspects of government with which the public thinks you should be familiar, your time as flavor of the month will be short-lived.

* October 24th, Herman Cain was leading the GOP primary pack with 25% of the vote in a CBS/NYT survey.

* October 30th, Cain still leading with 30% of the vote in a Quinnipiac poll.

* October 31st, “Politico” broke the story alleging that Cain had sexually harassed one or more women during his tenure at the National Restaurant Association.

* November 6th, CBS survey finds Cain at 18%, but still leading the pack.

* November 7th-10th, new harassment accusers surface and the first accuser is identified.

* Cain continues to demonstrate that there is a lot he does not know about the Federal government in general, and foreign affairs in particular.

* November 13th, Cain garners support from 14% of GOP primary voters and is now in 3rd place in CNN/OR survey, 10 points behind the leader.

* November 28th, a woman comes forward alleging a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain.

* November 30th, Rasmussen survey has Cain at 8, trailing the leader by 30 points (Rasmussen not a favorite of WW but the only poll available).

* December 3rd, Cain suspends his campaign, effectively ending it.

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While debates have long been important in Presidential campaigns, they may be playing a unique role in the GOP nomination fight in this election. Most of the real-time audiences have not been all that large. However, the information that flows from them to those paying attention and those not paying attention is all but over whelming.

Whether your primary source of information is local newspaper or TV, one of the cable networks, the Yahoo News Service, or one of a variety of other internet sources, it is hard to escape the replay of segments or commentary on who won or lost, each debate.

At least at this stage of the game, the new information flow is serving as a substitute for the role early State organization efforts have played historically.

Of the 13 media-sponsored Republican nomination debates to date, the largest audience – 7.58 million viewers – was the ABC/DesMoine Register/ Yahoo News debate on December 8th. This was the most watched debate since the Fox- carried debate on September 22nd.

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