2012 Presidential General Election

President Obama’s spokesperson has announced that Obama plans to run against the Congress. Little distinction was made between the Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Predicting the likely outcome of the Presidential election at this stage may be an interesting parlor game, but it has relatively little to do with reality. Will the Republican nomination contest be over sometime in February or early March or will it last until June? It appears now that it will be over earlier rather than later.

There are a number of questions, the answers to which will have considerable impact on the election.

What will happen to unemployment and the economy in general between now and the Fall?

Can the Republicans make the election into a referendum on the performance of President Obama or will it be a real contest?

Assuming Romney is the Republican nominee, will it be his vision of the state of America or the President’s vision of the state of America that will be most attractive? Will it be faith in the specialness of the government or will it be faith in the American people that is most attractive?

Some Democrats are “gleeful” about the thought of using Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital as a major point of attack in the general election. At some point , however, Romney and his team will begin to talk about who some of those who benefit from the success of the Bain Capitals of the world.

Surprisingly, it turns out that among the big winners are a whole lot of average Americans whose pension funds are some of the biggest investors. And then there are the charitable foundations who leverage their resources by similar investments.

Charlie Cook may have said it all in his column published on January 14th. “My rule of thumb has been that if unemployment is near 9 percent on Election Day, President Obama would very likely lose. If it’s near 8 percent, he would likely win. But if it’s around 8.5 percent, the race would be a toss-up.”

Having said all of that, the following are some traditional and available markers of where the election is today.

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The Electoral College

Here are two cuts that WW will regularly reprint as we head toward the election. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.

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The attack on President Obama by non-candidate groups was in full bloom by the end of 2011. In the 2004 cycle, the non-candidate group advertising did not begin until March of the election year. [WP 12/29/11]

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Battleground States

In the 8 Battleground States which have Party registration (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) Democratic and Republican registrations have fallen since 2008, and Independent registration has risen. In those 8 States as a group the number of Independents has increased by 320,657, the number of Democrats has dropped by 834, 197, and the number of Republicans has declined by 334, 608. [Third Way]

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InTrade Prediction Market

As of 9:00 p.m. January 12 , here are the bids for shares in candidates for President in the general election. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

• Barack Obama 50.6
• Mitt Romney 42.4

If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.

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Reuters Breakingviews’ Obama Re-election Calculator

This device for calculating a President’s re-election prospects is adapted from work done by Ray Fair at Yale University. As designed and used by Breakingviews, the “calculator” shows how likely it is that President Barack Obama will win a second term in U.S. elections in November 2012. It is based on annual GDP growth from the last quarter of the year before the election (2011) through the 3rd quarter of the election year; inflation during the same period; and a “swing factor” – defined as the shift in the two-Party vote to/away from Obama.

At the present time the calculator shows the probability of Obama winning re-election at 54%,with a 50.3% share of the vote. [Note: Professor Fair’s most recent calculation has the President’s share of the vote at 50.17% making the election too close to call. - NYT 1/8/12]

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