The Republican Nomination

22 people have been tempted or have joined the race.

16 people have announced they are not running, quit the race, or written it off.

6 people are still running:

• Newt Gingrich
• Jon Huntsman
• Ron Paul
• Rick Perry
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum

1 + ?? remains the number of real players at the moment

The Goal – 1,142 Committed Republican Convention Delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention, August 27-30, 2012.

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The contest has begun, and Mitt Romney seems to be riding high. Romney won in Iowa by a thread (8 votes). But in New Hampshire he won by a margin that was more than healthy -- 16.6% points ahead of the second place finisher, Ron Paul. He bested Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combined by 20+% points.

The next stop on the primary tour is South Carolina. If Romney wins there as well, it is hard to see how he can be denied the nomination. Gingrich and Perry are doing whatever they can, as are the SuperPACs that support them, to bring Romney down to earth, with little concern for any long lasting damage they cause to the person who may well be their nominee.

Even before Romney’s New Hampshire win, 60% of registered Republican voters believed he is most likely to win the nomination. This is an increase from 39% who responded to Gallup the same way in December. [Gallup 1/8]

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How they finished.

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Here is the delegates earned count to date as tabulated by Green Papers. Romney – 13, Paul – 9, Santorum – 6, Gingrich – 4, Perry – 3, Huntsman – 2.

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The following chart summarizes national polling on the GOP race from mid- July through early January:

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Intrade Prediction Market

At Intrade you can buy and sell shares in the prospects of candidates for President (and other offices). In other words, you are investing on the percentage probability of that event (election of that candidate) occurring.

As of 3:20 p.m. January 12 , here are the bids for shares in various Republican candidates’ prospects. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

• Romney 85.8
• Gingrich 4.7
• Paul 3.6
• Santorum 1.6
• Huntsman 1.0
• Perry .7

If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.

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Here are the four tranches of the Republican primary....

1st tranche – January 3 – 31, 2012
2nd tranche – February 4 – March 3, 2012
3rd tranche – March 6 – 24, 2012
4th tranche – April 3 – June 26, 2012

January 3 – 31, 2012
Iowa (c), New Hampshire (p), South Carolina (p), Florida (p)

States in which the primary/caucus has taken place.



The following represents the state of the race in the remaining States in this tranche.



* South Carolina – Insider Advantage 1/11/12
* Florida – Survey USA 1/8/12

February 4 – March 3, 2012
Nevada (c) – 2/4, Maine (c) – 2/4-10, Colorado (c) – 2/7, Minnesota (c) – 2/7, Missouri (non-delegate p) 2/7, Arizona (p) 2/28 , Michigan (p) 2/28, Washington (c) – 3/3

March 6 – 24, 2012
Of the 19 primary and caucus States that commence their processes during this period, their delegates must be allocated on a proportional basis.

Assuming the Republican contest gets to Super Tuesday, the Republican Party of Virginia has managed to make irrelevant the primary that is scheduled in that State. Requirements for access to the ballot were such that only Romney and Paul managed to qualify. There has since been much gnashing of teeth by a variety of Statewide public officials, but the rules stand, unless some court overturns them.

April 3 – June 26, 2012
The 21 primaries and caucuses scheduled during this period are free to allocate their delegates proportionally or on the basis of winner take all.

In gross terms, 345 delegates are selected in the States starting their processes before March 6th, Super Tuesday. On Super Tuesday, 564 delegates will be selected, bringing the total to 909 delegates, 40% of the total. (However, the number of delegates selected before March 6th may be reduced by 50%.)

[Note: For more information about the 2012 Republican Party delegate selection rules see Washington Watch, Issue 105, December 2011. Keep in mind that the Republican National Convention can change these rules.]

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Mitt Romney

Romney seems to have the organization, the resources, and the discipline to follow a plan. The periodic malapropos that flow from his mouth make for interesting sidelights, but are not likely to cost him votes in the primary seasons.

If Romney continues on his current path, he will wrap up the nomination early and have plenty of time to prepare for the general election.

In New Hampshire, with four serious conservative challengers, Romney managed to secure the support of 40% of all Tea Party supporters, 36% of strong Tea Party supporters, 33% of the very conservative voters, 48% of the somewhat conservative voters, and 31% of white, born-again evangelicals.

But there is something not quite right about Romney as a candidate. He is essentially articulate. His speech after he won in New Hampshire was particularly good.

The problem is that he seems to lack personal connection with the folks on whom he must rely for voting support. He is a little too cool, too plastic, too juiceless.

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Newt Gingrich

Gingrich apparently had no good answers to some of the charges against him in Iowa and had no money with which to respond. The SuperPAC that supports him did not have the funds to mount a campaign. So, he spent a great deal of time attacking the attack ads in person, because he could do that without spending money.

Out of his head came his now famous attack on the judiciary.

Gingrich’s campaign manager, ostensibly speaking for himself and Gingrich, compared Gingrich’s failure to get on the Virginia Republican Primary ballot to the Japanese invasion of Pearl Harbor in 1941.

Gingrich, whose place in the game has slipped , seems to have decided to put away Romney, whose supporting SuperPAC put Gingrich away in Iowa and likely for the campaign. He is doing this with money provided by a wealthy backer’s contribution to his SuperPAC. However, in a strange twist, the backer who provided that money has now let it be known publicly that he did not intend the money he contributed to be used to attack Romney on the basis of his business career.

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Ron Paul

Say or feel what you will about Ron Paul, no other candidate in the GOP field is as explicit and forthcoming as Paul. If you ask him a question, you are going to get an answer to your question that represents what he really believes. And it comes without any effort to avoid the subject or use the answer as a springboard to a statement about something that is hardly, if at all, related.

Reminiscent of the days in the 70s when young people boarding buses to go campaign for Gene McCarthy for President were perused as they got on buses to be sure they were clean shaven and neatly dressed, before heading to Iowa, Ron Paul’s younger volunteers were instructed to “cover up tattoos, be clean shaved or have neatly trimmed beards, and wear nice clothes.”

Paul came up with one of the best lines of the year when he said to Romney, during a telephone call congratulating him on his New Hampshire victory, “ I’m nibbling at your hills.”

Paul does not seem deluded by the prospect that he might end up as President of the United States. However, he is effectively using this race as a tool to further the libertarian way that he promotes.

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Rick Santorum

Ordinarily there is little that Charles Krauthammer (a former colleague) and I agree upon politically. However, his description of Santorum as a person of “authentic ideology” is pretty accurate.

Santorum surged to the top in Iowa (some folks think he actually won) and then he faded badly in New Hampshire. There is some evidence that the voters of South Carolina are more receptive to him and his message than those of New Hampshire. He must get close to the top in South Carolina or head back home to Pennsylvania, having made a valiant, but unsuccessful, effort.

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Jon Huntsman

Huntsman put all of his eggs in the New Hampshire basket and finished a poor 3rd, 22.6% points behind the winner. It turns out that the bulk of his vote in New Hampshire was from Democrats and Independents. He finished last among Republicans primary voters. It is just not there for him.

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Donald Trump

While Donald Trump’s voice has all but disappeared from the scene, he did announce that millions of people are waiting for him to make an endorsement in the Republican nomination fight. Meanwhile Trump, who was a Democrat and then became a Republican, has changed his registration once again. He is now an Independent.

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The Debates

Of the 15 media-sponsored Republican nomination debates to date, the largest audience – 7.58 million viewers – remains the ABC/ DesMoines Register/ Yahoo News debate on December 8th. ABC also had the third most-watched debate on January 7th. The second most-watched debate was the Fox News debate on December 15, 2011.

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