Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

February 17, 2012 11:54 AM

The Congress

The Congress continues to set new records. Approval of Congressional job performance is now at 10%, the lowest score ever recorded by Gallup. This score is confirmed by the latest CBS/NYT survey.


The U.S. Senate

If incumbent Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown loses his bid for re-election, the Republican caucus in the Senate will bear considerable responsibility. Had the Republicans not stopped the President from nominating Elizabeth Warren to head the new consumer protection agency she would not be the Democratic nominee in Massachusetts. In the most recent public surveys, Warren is now leading Brown.

A second weak spot for the Republicans is Nevada, where appointed Senator Dean Heller is, at best, running even with Democratic Congressperson Shelly Berkeley.

While loss of either of these States will make it difficult for the Republicans to take control of the Senate, the loss of both seats would seem to make the job all but impossible.



The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 51
  • Republicans 47
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
Here is how the 33 Senate elections made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents look to me at this time . (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. Incumbent in office) Underlining reflects retirement.

Safe Democratic (8) Leaning Democratic (7) Toss-Up (8) Leaning Republican (5) Safe Republican (5)
California Connecticut Hawaii Arizona Indiana
Delaware Florida
Massachusetts Maine Mississippi
Maryland Michigan
Missouri Texas Tennessee
Minnesota Ohio
Montana Nebraska
Utah
New Jersey Pennsylvania Nevada No. Dakota
Wyoming
New York Washington
New Mexico

Rhode Island West Virginia Virginia  
Vermont
  Wisconsin  
       

     


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2012 30 37
Safe in 2012 8 5
Leaning in 2012 7 5
Total 45 47
Toss-ups 8 (2R/6D)  



The House of Representatives

While the Democrats have a lot going for them in the fall elections and prospects for a pickup of seats by the Democrats is high, at least for now, a take over of the House by the Democrats appears not likely.

WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below (other than 1/20/11) reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through February 9, 2012 . [As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” ]

The U.S. House of Representatives

  • Republicans 242
  • Democrats 192
  • Vacancy 1 (D)

1/20/11 8/12/11 12/8/11 1/5/12 2/9/12
TOTAL Dem 193 --- --- --- ---
Solid Dem 150 --- --- --- ---
Likely Dem 27 22 18 16 20
Lean Dem 12 17 14 13 12
Toss-up 10 15 21 20 19
D 4 6 8 8 5
R 6 9 13 12 14
Lean GOP 15 20 21 19 20
Likely GOP 38 40 29 31 03
Solid GOP 183 --- --- --- ---
TOTAL GOP 242 --- --- --- ---


The Rothenberg Political Report has posted a report that deals with the entire House. It reports the following:

  1/12 2/12
Safe Democrat 166 164
Competitive 78 78
Safe Republican 191 193




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