February 17, 2012 11:54 AM
The Congress
The Congress continues to set new records. Approval of Congressional job performance is now at 10%, the lowest score ever recorded by Gallup. This score is confirmed by the latest CBS/NYT survey.The U.S. Senate
If incumbent Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown loses his bid for re-election, the Republican caucus in the Senate will bear considerable responsibility. Had the Republicans not stopped the President from nominating Elizabeth Warren to head the new consumer protection agency she would not be the Democratic nominee in Massachusetts. In the most recent public surveys, Warren is now leading Brown.A second weak spot for the Republicans is Nevada, where appointed Senator Dean Heller is, at best, running even with Democratic Congressperson Shelly Berkeley.
While loss of either of these States will make it difficult for the Republicans to take control of the Senate, the loss of both seats would seem to make the job all but impossible.
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 51
- Republicans 47
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
| Safe Democratic (8) | Leaning Democratic (7) | Toss-Up (8) | Leaning Republican (5) | Safe Republican (5) |
| California | Connecticut | Hawaii | Arizona | Indiana |
| Delaware | Florida |
Massachusetts | Maine | Mississippi |
| Maryland | Michigan |
Missouri | Texas | Tennessee |
| Minnesota | Ohio |
Montana | Nebraska |
Utah |
| New Jersey | Pennsylvania | Nevada | No. Dakota |
Wyoming |
| New York | Washington |
New Mexico | ||
| Rhode Island | West Virginia | Virginia | ||
| Vermont |
Wisconsin | |||
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2012 | 30 | 37 |
| Safe in 2012 | 8 | 5 |
| Leaning in 2012 | 7 | 5 |
| Total | 45 | 47 |
| Toss-ups | 8 (2R/6D) |
The House of Representatives
While the Democrats have a lot going for them in the fall elections and prospects for a pickup of seats by the Democrats is high, at least for now, a take over of the House by the Democrats appears not likely.WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below (other than 1/20/11) reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through February 9, 2012 . [As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” ]
The U.S. House of Representatives
- Republicans 242
- Democrats 192
- Vacancy 1 (D)
| 1/20/11 | 8/12/11 | 12/8/11 | 1/5/12 | 2/9/12 | |
| TOTAL Dem | 193 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Solid Dem | 150 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Likely Dem | 27 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
| Lean Dem | 12 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Toss-up | 10 | 15 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| D | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| R | 6 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| Lean GOP | 15 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| Likely GOP | 38 | 40 | 29 | 31 | 03 |
| Solid GOP | 183 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TOTAL GOP | 242 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
The Rothenberg Political Report has posted a report that deals with the entire House. It reports the following:
| 1/12 | 2/12 | |
| Safe Democrat | 166 | 164 |
| Competitive | 78 | 78 |
| Safe Republican | 191 | 193 |
