Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

March 24, 2012 7:58 AM

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

22 people have been tempted or have joined the race.

18 people have announced they are not running, quit the race, or have written it off.

4 people are still running: Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul

2 remains the number of real players at the moment.

The Goal: 1,142 Committed Republican Convention Delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention, August 27-30, 2012



There is a strong argument for the proposition that the Republican nominating process is, in fact, all but over. It is hard to see how any of the other three active candidates can overcome the delegate lead built up by Mitt Romney.

To the extent there is a race, it is a two person race, Romney and Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are simply not in it, even though they are continuing their campaigns. 51% of Republicans say that all four should stay in the race until one person actually clinches the nomination.

Romney has finished in first place 20 times and second 8 times. He is the only candidate who has participated in every primary and caucus. Santorum has finished first 10 times and second 11 times.

Romney has racked up 563 of the 1144 delegate votes required for nomination. Santorum is won 263 delegate votes. Even if one adds all the Gingrich and Paul votes to the Santorum total, Santorum still trails by 115 delegates. (Gallup polling suggests that Gingrich supporters – not necessarily delegates – split about 40/40 between Romney and Santorum.)

Paul expresses no illusions about whether he might be the nominee. Rather, he is using this forum, as he has in the past, to express his point of view about the Federal government and how it should be changed.

On the other hand, Gingrich continues to restate the proposition that he could actually win the nomination. As will become evident in the various elements of the Score Board below, he is one of the few people who continue to harbor this illusion.

It is hard to understand why Gingrich continues to press forward . With the primary/caucus season roughly half over, he is running a poor third in the delegate count. If he is aiming for a prime speaking role at the convention (which few people outside the convention hall will see) he could certainly negotiate that as a condition of his withdrawal.



As might be expected, Republican voters trust Romney the most to handle the economy (35% to 18%) and Santorum to handle social issues (31% to 22%). These same voters marginally select Santorum as best reflecting the core values of the Party, 27% to 25%. However, by 52% to 15%, they think Romney has the best chance to beat Obama. [WP/ABC 3/12]



The campaigns of the two front runners could not be more different.

Romney and the Super PAC supporting him have spent so many times more money than Santorum and the Super PAC supporting him that it is almost beyond calculation. The moral of the story is that media and inexpensive ways of communicating are so ubiquitous that, if a candidate has an interesting story or point of view, she can get out her message.

Romney has an established national headquarters in Boston and well-structured offices in each State in which he competes. Santorum’s campaign has clearly not invested in real estate, but does have a P.O. Box in Verona, PA.

Romney has delegate slates everywhere. Santorum did not have a slate at all in Virginia (a State where his point of view could be quite attractive), and did not field full slates in Ohio or Illinois. Organizing delegate slates (with the possible exception of Virginia) is not an expensive endeavor. It can, for the most part, be done with organized volunteers.

Romney has had to structure a public point of view and message that he and his advisors deemed necessary for him to be appealing to more conservative Republican primary voters and caucus participants. Santorum knows exactly who he is and what he believes, and has decided to be that person, for better or worse.

Santorum is totally comfortable with the hurley burley of the campaign trail and the interaction with potential voters. That is not Romney’s natural turf.

The delegate math suggests that Romney can achieve the number of delegates necessary to secure the nomination by the conclusion of the Utah primary, the last step on the primary journey. There are any number of individuals or groups that thrive on the delegate math and they seem to be generally in tune with each other.


Exit Polls

Exit polls are just that, polls taken of voters as they are leaving their polling places. A consortium of media companies underwrites the cost of exit polls in national elections. The media companies do not reveal the results of the exit polls before voting has ended. They do talk about the composition of the electorate. The first tabulation is shared with the sponsors at 5 p.m., and the results do move around in a limited way, but are not broadcast. Here is how the 5 p.m. exit poll results in Alabama and Mississippi compare with the final results.

  Alabama Mississippi Illinois
  Poll Actual Poll Actual Poll Actual
Santorum 36 34.5 29 32.8 45 46.7
Romney 28 29.0 37 30.6 35 35
Gingrich 27 29.3 29 31.2 12 8
Paul         8 9.3



Score Board: Caucuses and Primaries (Place Finished)

  Romney Santorum Paul Gingrich
Iowa 2 1 3 4
NH 1 5 2 4
SC 2 3 4 1
Fla 1 3 4 2
NV 1 4 3 2
CO 2 1 4 3
MN 3 1 2 4
MO 2 1 3 --
ME 1 3 2 4
MI 1 2 3 4
AZ 1 2 4 4
WY 1 2 3 4
WA 1 3 2 3
AK 1 2 3 4
GA 2 3 4 1
ID 1 2 3 4
MASS 1 2 3 4
ND 3 1 2 4
OH 1 2 4 3
OK 2 1 4 3
TENN 2 1 4 3
VT 1 3 2 4
VA 1 x x 2
Guam 1 0 0 0
VI 1 0 2 0
Am Sam 1 2 3 3
KS 2 1 4 3
ALA 3 1 4 2
HI 1 2 3 4
MISS 3 1 4 2
PR 1 2 4 3
ILL 1 2 3 4


Wins and Places

  1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place Zero
Romney 20 8 4 -- --
Santorum 10 11 7 1 3
Gingrich 2 5 7 15 3
Paul 0 7 11 12 2


Delegate Totals

  Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul Not Comit
Wash Post 563 263 135 50  
ABC 563 263 135 50  
NBC 485 193 137 34  
AP 563 263 135 50  
Green Papers (hard) 449 182 133 26 263
Green Papers (soft) 568 251 156 78  
Real Clear Politics 560 246 141 66  



GOP Nomination - National Polling

2012 Republican Presidential Candidates

Survey

Last date
of survey

Romney Gingrich Paul Santorum
Gallup 3/22 40 14 8 26
CBS/NYT 3/11 30 13 8 34
Gallup 3/11 34 15 12 25
ABC/WP 3/10 33 14 12 29
NBC/WSJ 3/3 38 13 13 32
Politico 2/22 34 13 7 36
Gallup 2/15 31 14 10 32
CNN/OpRes 2/13 32 15 16 34
CBS/NYT 2/13 27 10 12 30
Pew Res. 2/13 28 17 12 30
Gallup 2/8 36 20 10 20
ABC/WP 2/4 38 24 14 18
NBC/WSJ 1/24 28 37 12 18
ABC/WP 1/15 36 16 16 13



Intrade Prediction Market

At Intrade you can buy and sell shares on the prospects of candidates for President (and other offices). In other words, you are investing on the percentage probability of that event occurring (election of that candidate). The following are the last prices paid on March 20th, February 15th and January 12th.

  3/22 2/15 1/12
Romney 92.9 71.1 85.8
Gingrich .6 4.0 4.7
Paul 1.4 -- 3.6
Santorum 2.3 16.0 1.6


If you are interested, go to www.Intrade.com.



Here are the four tranches of the Republican primary ....

1st tranche – January 3 – 31, 2012 - Completed

2nd tranche – February 4 – March 3, 2012 - Completed

3rd tranche – March 6 – 24, 2012 – Completed all but Louisiana

4th tranche – April 3 – June 26, 2012

March 6 – 24, 2012
March 24 – Louisiana (p)

April 3 – June 26, 2012
The 21 primaries and caucuses scheduled during this period are free to allocate their delegates proportionally or on the basis of winner take all.

April 3 – Maryland (p), Wisconsin (p), Connecticut (p), Delaware (p) April 24 – New York (p), Pennsylvania (p), Rhode Island (p)

April 28 – Indiana (p)

May 8 – North Carolina (p), West Virginia (p)

May 15 – Oregon (p), Arkansas (p)

May 22 – Kentucky (p)

May 29 – Texas (p), California (p), New Jersey (p)

June 5 – New Mexico (p), South Dakota (p) June 1-10 - Nebraska (c)

June 14-16 – Montana (c)

June 26 – Utah (p)

There are 1,099 delegates to be selected after April 1st.

[Note: For more information about the 2012 Republican Party delegate selection rules see Washington Watch, Issue 105 December 2011. Keep in mind that the Republican National Convention can change these rules.]


The Money

The following is an attempt to summarize campaign fundraising and expenditures for selected campaigns, political organizations, and Super PACs.

Information is based on Federal Election Commission reports and various other sources. All of which is to say that the picture painted is pretty accurate, but not perfect.

The data does not include any information about various 501(c)(4) organizations, which can spend roughly fifty percent of their assets on campaign related advertising. They are not required to disclose under campaign finance laws and there is no effective analysis of whether they are spending more than 50% on campaign-related communications.

The Obama campaign continues to operate at a level that draws into question whether it can raise and spend as much money in 2012 as it did in 2008. Given that it has raised about $163 million so far this cycle, it must raise $587 million over the seven month period, March – September 30, in order to reach the $750 million raised in 2008. This amounts to roughly $84 million dollars a month. (The September 30 date is selected because most campaign-related activity must be paid for in advance. If one assumes that the campaign will have one additional month to raise its funds then the necessary total per month is just over $73 million per month.)

Fundraising and Net Available Cash (in millions)

  Raised
2011
Raised in
(Jan/Feb)
Total
Raised
3/1/12 Net Cash
on hand
Republican Candidates
Romney 56.1 17.8 73.7 7.3
Santorum 2.2 13.3 15.6 1.7
Gingrich 12.7 8.1 20.8 -$7,000
Paul 26.1 7.8 34.1 1.4
President Obama
Obama 139.5 23.1 162.6 84.6
National Political Parties

Republican Nat. Comm

88.1 21.7 109.8 15.8

Democratic Nat. Comm

108.3 34.7 143.0 15.2
SuperPACs
(*based on sources other than Federal Election Commission)
Republican
Restore our Future (Romney) 30.2 13.0* 43.2 16.3
Winning our Future (Gingrich) 2.1 16.8* 18.8 2.4
Endorse Liberty (Paul) 1.0 2.7* 3.7* .06
Red, White & Blue (Santorum) .7 5.0* 5.7 .6
American Crossroads 18.4 8.5 26.9 20.4
Freedom Works for America 2.7     2.0*
Club for Growth 2.0 --   2.8*
Democratic
Priorities USA Action (Obama) 4.4 2.1* 6.5 1.3
American Bridge 21 Century 3.7     .8


There is no doubt that SuperPACs will play a huge role in the 2012 elections, both Presidential and congressional. Interestingly, 56% of conservative Republicans think that SuperPACs should be illegal. This view is held by 69% of Americans generally, 80% of Democrats, and 62% of moderate to conservative Democrats. [WP/ABC 3/12]

There is a new SuperPAC. The “Campaign for Primary Accountability” was created for the sole purpose of trying to achieve the loss in the primaries of various incumbents in both Parties. The PAC is apparently not interested in shifting power between Democrats and Republicans. Rather, it is interested in “shifting power between Congress and the people.” The group seems to plan to focus on long time incumbents.



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