The Congress

In a resounding jump, the Congress’s job approval has moved from 10% in January to 12% in March. [Gallup] The work being done by the Democrats in Congress is disapproved by 60% of Americans, but the rating of the Republican members is even worse at 71% disapproval. [WP/ABC 3/12]

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The Senate

The number of Senate races in the Toss-Up category has moved from 8 in January to 10 in March.

In Florida, the race has moved from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up. Republican Congressman Connie Mack is the leader of the pack in the Republican primary, and over the last few months he has moved up to within a few points of Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, whom he would face in the general election.

Maine Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe’s announcement that she would not seek re-election moves a Safe Republican seat to a Toss-Up. There will likely be a three-way race, with former Governor Angus King running as an Independent. King is the odds-on favorite. King has not announced how he will caucus if elected. However, there is a working assumption that he will caucus with the Democrats.

Texas moves from Leaning Republican to Safe Republican, and Indiana moves from Safe Republican to Leaning Republican.

With the entry of former Nebraska Governor and former U.S. Senator Bob Kerry into the race as the putative Democratic candidate, a number of folks suggest that this is a race that should be moved from Leaning Republican at least to Toss- Up. WW thinks that Jennifer Duffy, Senior Editor of the Cook Political Report, has it right when she suggests that it remains to be seen how this race will develop. It has been a long time since Kerry lived in Nebraska, raised political money, or campaigned.

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 51
• Republicans 47
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 33 Senate elections, made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents, look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. Incumbent in office) Underlining reflects retirement.

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The House of Representatives

While the Democrats have a lot going for them in the fall elections and prospects for a pickup of seats by the Democrats is good, a takeover of the House by the Democrats does not seem to be in the cards at the moment.

The big question is whether general angst might impact a series of House incumbents who might otherwise seem to be relatively safe.

In general, potential voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled Congress, by 46% to 41%. When voters are asked whether their current Representative deserves reelection or a new person should be given a chance, they opt for the election of a new person by 48% to 40%. [NBC/WSJ 3/12]

WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below (other than 1/20/11) reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through February 9, 2012 . [As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.” ]

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Republicans 242
• Democrats 191
• Vacancies 2

The Rothenberg Political Report has posted a report that deals with the entire House. It reports the following:

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