The Presidential General Election

[Note: As you begin reading this section keep in mind that the general election is 7.5 months away. When the Republican primaries are over and the identity of the Republican nominee is known, there will be a refocusing or reset of attention to the general election. Anything can, and likely will, happen.]

Interest in the November 2012 Presidential election is running behind where it was running in 2008 at this time. Currently, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being “very interested,” 73% score their interest at 8, 9 or 10. In 2008, that number was 85%. Strangely, the public’s level of interest has dropped since January. [NBC/WSJ 1/12]

---

The number of those who describe themselves as supporters of the Tea Party Movement has remained steady over the last year, with 28% expressing that view in January 2011 and January 2012. The number who describe themselves as not supporting the movement has dropped slightly, to 63%. [NBC/WSJ 3/12]

---

2012 Presidential General Election

During the first couple of weeks of March Obama’s position against Romney and Santorum has been relatively static. The exception is the March NBC/WSJ survey, which was finished on March 3rd, which had Obama beating Romney by 6 points and Santorum by 14 points. A week later, Obama led Romney by 3 points in one major survey, and trailed Romney by 2 points in another major survey.

---

The Electoral College

Here are two cuts at the Electoral College that WW will regularly reprint as we head toward the Presidential election. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.

The Cook Political Report scores the Democratic candidate vs. the Republican candidate. The Rothenberg Political Report scores the specific Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, versus each of the top two Republican potential nominees.

---

Intrade Prediction Market

As of close of business on March 20 , here are the bids for shares in Obama’s re-election prospects. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

---

On election day there is one question that will be on the mind of voters, the answer to which will predict the outcome of the election. “How are you doing?” [Stan Greenberg]

---

Latinos will likely represent 8.7% of the total voters. They represent more than 13% of the vote in the following states: Arizona (19.2%), Nevada (15.1%), Florida (15.9%), and Colorado (13.7%). 27% of Latinos feel the Republican Party is hostile to them, and an additional 45% believe Republicans don’t care much about them. [Univision 1/12]

---

At this stage in the campaign Republicans/Leaning Independents are more enthusiastic about the coming general election than Democrats/Leaning Independents by 53% to 45%. By way of comparison, at this time in the 2008 and 2004 elections Democrats/Leaners were more enthusiastic than Republicans/ Leaning.

---

One of the unknowns heading into the 2012 general election is the impact of a number of State laws that have been passed that require particular forms of voter identification including photo IDs. Those opposing these laws argue that they have a disproportionate affect on the poor and the elderly. Those who support the statutes argue that they are designed to combat voter fraud, although there is little proof that voter fraud has been a significant problem.

There are a variety of Federal and State actions pending relating to these laws. Stay tuned.

---

According to the Pew Center on the States, approximately 24,000,000 active voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are inaccurate. In a recent report the Pew Center noted the following:

* At least 52 million eligible citizens remain unregistered (24% of the eligible population)

* More than 1.8 million deceased folks are listed as active voters

* Roughly 2.7 million people have active registrations in more than one State

* About 12 million records have incorrect addresses as a function of the voter moving or an error in basic information collection.

[Pew Center report – Inaccurate, Costly and Inefficient]

Return to Home Page