2012 Presidential General Election

As you can see in the charts below, early polling on the general election contest does not show a contest in which the ultimate winner is obvious at the present time. In surveys that were completed after Romney was the obvious nominee (Santorum suspended his campaign), there is a range of results showing Obama up by as much as 8 points and others that show the race to be dead even.

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Here are the results of a PEW Research Center survey conducted April 4-15, broken down into categories. [Note: Following a series of Republican primary contests on April 3rd, the media began treating Romney as the Republican nominee.]

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No surprise, Romney's positive intensity score among Republicans has grown since he became the obvious Republican nominee, while his Democratic score has fallen. Obama’s scores have been relatively consistent in recent months.

Here are their current scores as reported by Gallup.

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The Electoral College

Here are cuts at the electoral college that WW will regularly reprint as we head toward the Presidential election. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.



Most commentators include the following in the list of” Toss Up” States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire. Two additional States which are often added to this list are North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

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Intrade Prediction Market

As of close of business on March 20 , here are the bids for shares in Obama’s re-election prospects. (The higher the bid the more likely the buyer believes the prospects of victory.)

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The support of younger people was important to the election of President Obama in 2008. In 2008, 18-29 year olds were 18% of those who voted and Obama won the group by 66% to 32%. Conversely, those 65 years of age and older constituted 16% of the electorate, and Obama lost them 45% to 53% for McCain.

Currently, 60% of 18-29 year olds are registered to vote. Among those who are registered, 56% say they will definitely vote, and Obama leads by 64% to 35%. Conversely, 92% of those 65 and older are registered; 77% say they are certain to vote; and they currently support Romney over Obama by 52% to 40%. [Gallup]

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President Obama took 67% of the Hispanic vote in the 2008 election. Since then the Hispanic population has continued to grow in an increased number of States. In a recent Fox News survey of Latino voters, Obama leads Romney by 69% to 14%. Romney is rated unfavorably by this community by about 2 to 1.

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There is much conversation about the role that women will play in the 2012 Presidential election. At the moment, the support of Obama over Romney by women is a very important part of Obama’s lead in those polls which have him ahead in the race.

Women have been “dominant” in the groups that have supported Democratic nominees over the years. The following is a chart of their role in the Democratic vote, courtesy of “Inside Politics with Bill Schneider,” published by Third Way.

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Asked what issues will be extremely/very important to them as they consider who to vote for in the Presidential election, potential voters rank healthcare (80%) and unemployment (79%) at the top of their list. Closely following those issues are the budget deficit and national debt (77%) and gas prices (73%). Further down the list we find government policies concerning birth control at 44%. Not surprisingly, women are significantly more interested than in men in policies relating to birth control. [Gallup]

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In the mid-April NBC/WSJ survey the following series of questions was asked relating to the #1 issue going into this election – the economy. The question asked was whether the actions listed did or would help or hurt economic conditions.

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Gallup classifies 41% of registered voters as “very religious,” 27% as “moderately religious,” and 32% as “nonreligious.” The more religious a person is, the more likely they are to support Romney over Obama.

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With the economy being the #1 issue going into the general election season, a recent Gallup survey has Americans expressing the view that they have more confidence in Obama “to do or recommend the right thing for the economy” by 50% to 42% over Romney.

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The number of people who describe themselves as supporters of the Tea Party Movement in April is 25%. In the last year it has been as high as 28%. The number saying they do not support the movement is currently at 64%. Of Republicans who are also Tea Party supporters, 56% say that the term “Republican” better describes them, while 37% say “Tea Party supporter” better describes.

As of April, only 16% of adults and registered voters describe themselves as supporters of the Occupy Wall Street Movement. This number has fallen from its high of 29% in November 2011. [NBC/WSJ 4/12]

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