2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

22 people have been tempted or have joined the race.

19 people have announced they are not running, quit the race, or have written it off.

3 people are still running (sort of): Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul.

1 is the number of real players remaining at the moment.

The Goal: 1,142 Committed Republican Convention Delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention, August 27-30, 2012

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The contest is over. It effectively ended late on the evening of April 3rd , when Romney won all three of the primaries held that day in Wisconsin (most important because Santorum competed there), Maryland and DC. By then he had finished 1st in 23 states and 2nd in 9. Santorum had finished 1st in 11 states and 2nd in 13 states. Gingrich had won 1st place in 2 states and 2nd in 6. Paul had not won a single state.

Subsequently, on April 24th there were 5 more contests. The chart below includes those contests.



The next series of contests was scheduled for April 24th, five States in the Northeast, including Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, New York, and Pennsylvania, Santorum’s home State. While the contest was over, the open question was how long Santorum would hang in the race, making it awkward for Romney to really turn to the general election.

The only State in the group in which Santorum had any chance was his home State of Pennsylvania. If he failed to win in Pennsylvania, he would have no basis for continuing the race, except to make Romney’s life miserable, something that is not in Santorum’s long-term interest.

As of early March, Santorum was leading Romney in Pennsylvania by 14 – 18 points. By the end of March, the spread had dropped to 6 points. And, as of the first week of April, a survey that had Santorum up by 18 points in early March now had Romney leading by 5 points.

By April 10th, Romney had accumulated 660 delegates, while Santorum trailed badly with 281 delegates. Gingrich and Paul together had 186 delegates. 144 are needed to nominate. As of April 25th, Romney has 844 delegates. [WP tally]

Santorum, seeing the handwriting on the wall, announced on April 11th that he was suspending his campaign. (Suspending the campaign allows him to continue to raise funds through his campaign committee.)

Santorum made an interesting run. In mid-December 2011 Santorum, when matched in a national survey against Romney, Gingrich and Paul, came in at 3% against Romney’s 30%. [CBS]

In early March, Santorum led Romney 34% to 30%. By April 3rd he trailed Romney by 19 points, 44% to 25%. [CBS/NYT][ABC/WP]

Among the reasons why Santorum failed is that, while Republicans trusted Santorum more than Romney to handle social issues 29% to 27%, they trusted Romney over Santorum to handle the economy, 48% to 12%. [WP/ABC 4/12]

From the first day to the last, Santorum’s basic positions did not change.

Now, for reasons that are not clear, Santorum is playing a bit hard to get. He has yet to endorse Romney, even after Romney won all five primaries on April 24th. The two men are scheduled to meet on May 4th. Perhaps he has decided to keep the world waiting breathlessly for his decision.

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It was inexplicable why Newt Gingrich was staying in the race so long. Then he announced he was staking the future of his campaign on the Delaware primary. It is not clear why, but following Romney’s win there, his folks are putting out the word that he is planning to suspend his campaign on May 1st. It is going to be interesting to see how he handles the substantial debt his campaign has incurred.

Ron Paul will stay in to the end because he can, and because he entered the race to make the case for his libertarian point of view, and he continues to be able to do that. He likely garners more attention this way than he would as an about-to- be-former Member of the House of Representatives.

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At one time or another five different candidates led the race nationally.

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The Vice Presidential Pick

And so begins the “search” for a Vice Presidential nominee to be recommended to the Republican convention delegates by the Presidential nominee. As the vetting process has changed and expanded over the years it has become one of the most intrusive experiences that a person might endure.

These changes are often a function of some issue that came up in a previous election which had not been considered during vetting and then became a distraction during the general election .

The endless speculation by media commentators as to whom Romney might pick is in full bloom. Is it Senator Portman (Ohio) or Senator Rubio (Florida- Hispanic) or Governor Christie (New Jersey)?

Meanwhile the CNN/ORC poll asked Republicans to name their top pick. Here is the list. Leading the queue is Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, named by 26%. She is followed by Rick Santorum at 21%; Marco Rubio and Chris Christie at14% each; Paul Ryan at 8%; Bobby Jindal at 5%; Bob McDonnell at1%; and Rob Portman at <1%.

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