State of the Nation

In the April NBC/WSJ survey, 59% say the country is on the wrong track. 33% say it is on the right track. The following are the Right Direction/Wrong Track findings from the NBC/WSJ and the CBS/NYT, dating back to the beginning of the Obama administration.

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Ask the broader question somewhat differently and you get a somewhat different answer.

43% think that “things are going well” in the country today, compared to 67% who think things are going badly. And 11.5 times as many people think that things are going “very badly” as think they are going “very good.”

The low point during the Obama administration came in February 2009, when 21% thought things were going well and 79% thought they were going badly.

When President Bush stood for re-election in 2004, 55% thought things were going well.

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24% are satisfied with the way things are going in America. This is a slight drop from the satisfaction level in March, but higher than the 11% recorded last summer. Self-reported spending by Americans in March hit $74 per day, up from $63 per day in February. [Gallup]

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 8.2% for the month of March. A year ago the rate was 8.9%. The average unemployment for 2011 was 8.9%, for 2010 it was 9.6% and for 2009, 9.3%.

Recalling a bit of history, the unemployment rate started to move up in May 2008, when it jumped from 5% in April to 5.4% in May. The rate increased every month thereafter (exception was August/September when the rate did not change) until it reached 7.3% in December. It continued upward in 2009, reaching 10% in October 2009. By the end of 2010, the rate was 9.4% and by the end of 2011 it had fallen back to 8.5% .

Gallup reported a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 8.5% for mid- April of this year. This is down from 8.6% in February. It also reported a drop to an unadjusted 18.1 % in the number of people unemployed or who are working part-time, but want full-time employment.

[Note: Gallup reports both a seasonally adjusted and an unadjusted number in its report of unemployment. However, it only reports an unadjusted number of those working part-time, but wanting full-time work. So, when compiling the total of the two, Gallup uses the unadjusted numbers.]

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Jobs at 26%, and the economy at 22%, rank highest on a list of problems that Americans think the is facing the country today. Next highest are “politicians/government” at 9% and healthcare at 5%.

70% say the condition of the country is “bad,” while 27% say it is “good.” A year ago, 80% said the condition of the country was “bad.”

33% say the economy is getting better, while 28% say it is getting worse. 38% say the economy is staying about the same.

39% say they are falling behind, 43% say they are staying even, and 16% say they are getting ahead. This last number is the lowest number recorded since the question was first asked in 1995. [CBS/NYT 4/12]

60% of Americans say they have enough money to live comfortably. This is the smallest number of people to take this position in the last decade. A full ten years ago, 75% of Americans said they had enough money.

Conversely the number of people who say they do not have sufficient money to live comfortably has grown from 24% in 2002 to 39% in 2012. [Gallup]

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The average income for Hispanic families in America is about 2/3rds as high as it is for white families. The average income for African-American families is about three-fifths as high was white families. [U of Phoenix/NAm Poll]

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68% of Americans now say they know someone who has lost her or his job in the last six months. This is the highest percentage registered by Gallup in the 20+ years it has asked this question. 77% think this is a bad time to being looking for a job. Last November, 90% of Americans had that view.

But, even given the above, 84% think it is at least “not too likely” that they will lose their current jobs. This includes 42% who say it is “not at all likely.” [Gallup 4/23/12]

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67% believe that the government “should be doing more to help improve the financial situation of middle class Americans.” Only 15% think the government should be doing less. [NYT/CBS 4/12]

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72% of us would favor changing Federal income tax rates so that people making more than $1,000,000 a year pay at least 30% of their income in taxes. [CNN/ORC 4/12]

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46% think they are paying too much in Federal taxes, while 47% say they think their tax level is about right. When asked, 53% think their taxes will rise in the next 12 months, while 43% think there will be no change. [Gallup]

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Different Takes On the Same Story

On Friday, April 13th, two major banks, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Company, put out their first quarter results. The next day two major newspapers reported on those results, with distinctly different “takes” on those reports.

The Wall Street Journal, reported on the results with a first section, front page, far right column, story. The headline and first paragraph follow:

“Bank Earnings Dismay Investors”

“Two of the nation’s largest banks released first-quarter results on Friday that disappointed investors, underlining the industry’s struggles with a sluggish economic recovery and the long hangover from the financial crisis.”

The New York Times put the story on the front page of the B section, far right hand column.

“Solid Results at 2 Banks Bode Well For Industry”

“Revenue is back.

“Hard hit by new regulations and a sluggish economy, banks have struggled to revive top-line performance since the financial crisis, even as profits improved. But two of the nation’s largest lenders, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, reported strong revenue growth on Friday, a surprise that could bode well for the rest of the industry and the broader economy.”

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It Makes A Difference How You Word the Question

55% of respondents, when asked about the Federal government’s assistance to the U.S. automakers who were in financial trouble, think the companies should have been left alone to succeed or fail on their own. 36% have the opposite view. The “no help” point of view is expressed by 42% of Democrats, 58% of Independents, and 73% of Republicans. [UT/NJCCpoll 2/2011]

A Gallup survey at roughly the same time found 51% against “financial bailout,” while 44% approved. But if the language used to describe the government assistance is changed, so is the survey result. A Pew survey found 56% thought “government loans” to the car companies were “mostly good,” while 36% thought they were “mostly bad.”

According to 42% of Americans, the “energy situation” is very serious. In mid-2001 the number hit 58%. [Gallup]

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84% of African Americans do not believe that blacks and other minorities receive treatment equal to whites in the criminal justice system. [WP/ABC 4/12]

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43% of us are supportive of intermarriage of different races. As one would expect the strength of support is age-based. The breakdown is as follows:

63% of those 18-29
45% of those 30-49
35% of those 40-64
28% of those 65+

[Pew]

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An increasing number of children are being born of biracial parents in the United States. Something over 7 percent of children born in 2009 had parents of two or more races. This compares with 5% ten years earlier. [WP 4/26]

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Mississippi is the most religious state in the Union, with 59% falling into the category of “very religious.” Coming right behind are Utah at 57% and Alabama at 56%. At the other end of the spectrum are Vermont and New Hampshire in which only 23% are classified as “very religious.” [Gallup]

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Here is some history of college freshmen who entered school in 2006: 33% of all students transfer; 25% transfer more than once; 37% transfer in their 2nd year; 22% transfer in their 4th or 5th years; 43% transfer into a public two-year college. [National Student Clearing House Republican Center]

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In the ordinary course, WW does not recommend particular articles. However, I recommend to your attention an article entitled “In Nothing We Trust,” by Ron Fournier and Sophie Quinton, in the April 21, 2012 National Journal. It is well worth the twenty minutes it will take you to read it.

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