The Congress

Approval of the job being done by Congress reached 17% in mid-April , up from 12% in March. This is the highest rating that Gallup has found since July 2011, when 18% approved.

The Congress seems to be unable to get anything of significance done. The level of polarization within the two bodies has reached a level that makes them all but irrelevant in solving the country’s problems.

The National Journal regularly rates the voting records of members of Congress. (2/25/12)

“...no Senate Democrat compiled a voting record to the right of any Senate Republican, and no Republican came down on the left of any Senate Democrat.”

In the last 30 years this has happened only once before – 1999.

Only six Republican House Members compiled records that were slightly to the left of the most conservative Democrat.

The following is a chart of the number of House Members and the number of Senators whose voting records fall between the most conservative and most liberal members of their respective bodies.

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The Senate

• Democrats 51
• Republicans 47
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Former Governor Angus King’s entry into the Maine Senate race as an Independent makes it likely that the Republicans will lose the seat being vacated by Olympia Snowe. King was a popular governor, and early polling suggests he will be the eventual winner. While he has stated that he will not announce which caucus he will join unless and until he is elected, the working assumption is that he will caucus with the Democrats. In the chart below this race is treated as Leaning Democratic.

While the seat will not switch Parties if he loses, incumbent Republican Senator Orrin Hatch (UT) easily avoided the fate of incumbent Republican Senator Robert Bennett, who lost his seat by failing to pick up sufficient delegate votes at the Republican State convention, recently concluded. Hatch reportedly received 59.4% of the vote, .6% percentage points short of the 60% needed to avoid a primary. There will be a two-person primary on June 26. In early polling Hatch leads by a substantial margin.

A number of smart people believe that control of the Senate will ultimately come down to the races in Nevada, Ohio and Maine. If the Democrats win two of the three they will retain control.

Here is how the 33 Senate elections, made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents, look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office). Underlining reflects retirement.

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The House of Representatives

While Democrats seem to be doing well in fundraising and many of the candidates they have recruited seem strong, a net gain of 5 – 15 seats by the Democrats seems likely. However, the return of the House to Democratic control is beyond the pale.

The question of whether general angst might result in a number of Members, who otherwise seem safe, losing their seats remains open. General public angst is not diminishing.

In general, potential voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled Congress by 46% to 44%. The following are the preferences reflected in the NBC/WSJ survey going back to April 2009.



WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below (other than 1/20/11) reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through April 19, 2012. [As always, thanks to "The Cook Political Report."]

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Republicans 242
• Democrats 191
• Vacancies 2

“The Rothenberg Political Report” has posted a report that deals with the entire House. It reports the following:

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