The Congress

After dipping to 15% in May, approval of the job being done by Congress was back up to 17% in mid-June. This is up from 12% in March. This is the highest approval rating Gallup has found since July 2011, when 18% approved.

The Washington Post recently reported (6/21/12 ) on what appears to be an increasing number of incumbents seeking re-election who do not mention in their TV advertising that they are currently Members of Congress.

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The Senate

There have been some changes since the last issue of the Watch. Florida has moved from Toss Up to Leaning Democrat, New Jersey has moved from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat, Hawaii has moved from Leaning Democrat to Safe Democrat, North Dakota has moved from Leaning Republican to Toss Up, Washington has moved from Leaning Democrat to Safe Democrat.

Given the above changes, the prospect that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate is improving.

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 51
• Republicans 47
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Here is how the 33 Senate elections, made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents, look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office). Underlining reflects retirement.

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The House of Representatives

Potential voters seem to be ambivalent about whether they prefer a Republican or Democratic Congress. The most recent NBC/WSJ survey finds 45% preferring a Democratic Congress and 44% preferring a Republican Congress.



In a recent column (6/21/12), Charlie Cook wrote the following that WW thinks is worth repeating.

" ....the number of strongly Democratic districts – those with a score of D+5 or greater at the presidential level-decreased from 144 before redistricting to 136 afterward. The number of strongly Republican districts – those with a score of R+5 or greater – increased from 175 to 183. When one party starts out with 47 more very strong districts than the other, the numbers suggest that the fix is in for any election featuring a fairly neutral environment. Republicans would need to mess up pretty badly to lose their House majority in the near future."

WW has regularly reprinted the "House Dashboard" published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. The Dashboard has not been published recently because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. I am told that the Dashboard will return shortly. [As always, thanks to "The Cook Political Report." ]

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Republicans 242
• Democrats 191
• Vacancies 2

"The Rothenberg Political Report" has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Report.]

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