Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

August 17, 2012 11:56 AM

2012 Presidential General Election

80 Days Until the Election

To some, 80 days may seem like a very short time, to others a very long time. What is certain is that almost anything can and will happen.

If, with 160 days to go before the election, you had ruminated about what was likely to happen in the next 80 days, how many of the following events would have made your list?

The deadly shootings at the Aurora, Colorado movie theater and the Sikh Temple in Wisconsin

* The Curiosity rover landing on Mars

* The Chick-Fil-A boycott

* Power outages in India that first left 300 million, and then 600 million , people without power

* Jeremy Lin leaving the Knicks

* The impact of the massive drought in the U.S.

* Kim Jong Un of North Korea revealing his wife to the world

* The revelation of an alleged manipulation of the Libor

* The removal of Joe Paterno’s statue from Penn State grounds

* Gore Vidal passing

* Katie Holmes filing for divorce from Tom Cruise

* Kristen Stewart being caught cheating on Robert Pattinson

* Paul Ryan being named as Mitt Romney’s choice for VP

* Linda McMahon winning the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Connecticut


The Schedule

August 27 – 30, 2012 Republican National Convention , Tampa, FL
September 4 – 6, 2012 Democratic National Convention, Charlotte, NC
October 3, 2012 1st Presidential Debate – Denver, CO
October 11, 2001 Vice Presidential Debate – Danville, KY
October 16, 2012 2nd Presidential Debate – Hempstead, NY
October 22, 2012 3rd Presidential Debate – Boca Raton, FL
November 6, 2012 Election Day



Romney’s Dilemma

At the beginning of this month Mitt Romney was looking at a race in which President Obama seemed to have a small, but steady, lead nationally and in the so- called battleground States.

The Obama team bet that spending large amounts of money early to go after Romney in every possible way would pay off in the end. They took to disparaging Romney in every way possible. Not a crazy strategy, as the current state of the race makes clear.

Romney at that point had at least three opportunities to change the dynamic or direction of the race.

One was the selection of his Vice Presidential running mate. Everyone “knows” that in the final analysis ,V.P.s rarely deliver a State or a large number of votes, but the selection does tell us something about the Presidential candidate.

The second opportunity comes with Romney’s speech at the convention. While the TV ratings for the conventions are down, the hour that is likely to draw the most viewers for each of the conventions is the acceptance speech of the nominees. If a candidate says something worthwhile, the thousands of reporters and media folks attending the convention will get the word out far and wide. It is also true that, if the speech is a dud, that will also be reported.

The third opportunity comes with the first debate on October 3rd. At that point the campaign will have about one month to go. It will be the first time that interested potential voters will be able to assess the Presidential candidates side by side.


The Selection of Paul Ryan

The selection of Ryan was a surprise for many on both ends of the political spectrum. Anecdotal indicators were that most folks thought that Romney should and would select Senator Rob Portman.

Romney obviously decided not to do that. It does seem clear that Romney made the choice himself, so the reasons why he made the choice are really only known to him (and possibly Beth Meyers). We do know that the choice was not foisted on him the way some folks feel Governor Palin was foisted on John McCain in 2008.

I will discuss more about the hue and cry that has ensued with his announcement a little later, but now lets take a look at Paul Ryan. Who is he, what does he bring to the campaign, and what does he stand for?

Ryan is a 42-year old Republican Congressman from Janesville, Wisconsin. He is now serving his 7th term in the House of Representatives, having won re- election last time with 68% of the vote. He is married, with three relatively young children. His family lives in Janesville. He is a Catholic, he is a hunter, and, oh yes, when Congress is in session, he apparently lives in his Capitol Hill office.

He is very smart, he is well informed, he is a physical fitness buff, he often walks through the halls of the Congressional office buildings with earbuds in place, listening to music. Some folks on both sides of the aisle regard him fondly and others find him to be thin-skinned and arrogant. He is reasonably wealthy.

He is not particularly “gaffe – prone.” When you Google “Paul Ryan Gaffe” there are about 2,000 results. For comparison when you Google “Bobby Jindal Gaffe,” there are about 7,000 results.

And, oh by the way, the conservative wing of the Republican Party, including those who see themselves as Tea Party devotees, love him. They believe they have in Ryan a true conservative, and they are likely right.

One person described Ryan to the Watch as “Palin with substance.”

What does he do for Romney? First, Ryan is a true conservative, so one of the most important things he does is to make the conservative wing of the Republican Party much more comfortable with Romney. The conservatives have been less than enthused about the putative Republican nominee. In this regard, WW is reminded of the 1976 campaign and President Carter’s selection of Walter Mondale as his running mate. One of the things that Mondale did for Carter was to make organized labor much more comfortable with Carter. Mondale spent many an hour during the campaign in union towns and halls.

Second, he appears to make Romney more publicly comfortable. Since announcing Ryan, Romney, who more often than not seemed somewhat awkward in his public presentation, seems to be freer and better.

Third, having spent those many years in Congress and having done as much public speaking as he has done, he should be able to hold his own in the Vice Presidential debate with Joe Biden.

Fourth, he has, for better or worse, changed the subject of the campaign from who Romney is and what he did or did not do at Bain Capital, to some actual issues. How that debate, assuming it ensues, will work for Romney also remains to be seen.



Beyond the above, who is Paul Ryan?

* His voting record as a conservative is not at the upper end. That is to say, based on National Journal Rankings in 2008, he was the 45Th most conservative member of the House, and in 2011 he was the 150th most conservative member of the House.

* He believes the size of the Federal Government should be drastically reduced. He would do this by

- cutting funding for such social safety net programs as food stamps and housing assistance. Food stamps alone would be cut $133.5 billion over 10 years [46,000,000 Americans currently live below the poverty level of $22, 314/year for a family of four].

- cutting spending for education, including such programs as Pell grants.

- eliminating tax breaks that benefit low-income Americans. such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit. He would also eliminate some tax breaks for the wealthier, but those remain undefined.

- eliminating taxes on capital gains, dividends, and interest (all changes that tend to favor the wealthy).

- and he would lower the top tax rate from 35% to 25%, and establish a 10% rate for those who are low earners. (Currently those in the bottom 40% of house hold income pay a rate of 6%.)

* He has in the past spoken favorably about raising the retirement age for Social Security and curtailing benefits for well-off retirees.

* He would dramatically change the Medicare program, replacing traditional Medicare benefits with government support to purchase private insurance. He does make clear that these changes would not affect any person aged 55 and older.

He would also reign in Medicaid in a way that would inevitably lead to a curtailment of the resources available for this program.

* Of course, he would repeal Obama’s health care plan.

* While he would seek savings from Pentagon spending, this is one area in which he would see the budget growing over time. [The above commentary is based on a report in the Washington Post 8/12/12]



The Romney/Ryan “ticket” received very little initial bounce as a result of the announcement of Ryan.

Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com has provided an analysis of the Vice President announcement boost, as has the Gallup organization. In the chart below the only races included are those in which the announcement of the V.P. occurred before either convention. The only race left out is 1992, given the impact of Perot‘s departure from the race.

1984 Mondale/Ferraro +2
1988 Dukakis/Bentsen +2
2000 Bush/Cheney +3
2004 Kerry/Edwards +4
2008 Obama/Biden -2
2012 Romney/Ryan +1


Whether Ryan’s addition to the ticke will, in fact, be a help or a hindrance to Romney is still an open question. We will never really know what elements contribute to the margin’s of each candidate’s vote.

Washington Watch’s initial reaction to the selection of Ryan has been relatively positive as to whether it helps Romney. Many think I have totally lost my mind or at least my political judgment.

Some Republican strategists and public officials have begun ringing their hands, essentially saying that with the selection of Ryan, the race is over and Romney has lost. Then they wonder out loud what detrimental impact that will have on down-ballot races.

Many Democrats shouted with joy at hearing Romney’s selection. They too think the race is all but over and Obama has won.

One astute Republican strategist said better than I what the selection of Ryan means to the campaign – and he said it positively, “Until now it has been a campaign about nothing...now it is a campaign about something.”

On November 7th (hopefully the final results will be known) either the bed wetters or the currently even-keeled in the Republican Party will be right. And the Democrats will either be exulted or deflated.

Right now, no one really knows whether Romney’s selection of Ryan was one of the dumbest or one of the smartest moves he will have made.


The Conventions

The Republican convention provides the second opportunity for Romney to change the dynamic of the contest with his convention speech.

As noted in the June 2012 Washington Watch, these conventions are a very expensive anachronism. Perhaps the modifications introduced by the Democrats this year will lead to other changes. The Democrats will have regular evening plenary sessions only on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Thursday night session, at an outdoor sport stadium, will primarily feature the acceptance speeches of President Obama and Vice President Biden.

The last time the Republican Party held a multi-ballot convention was in 1948 when Tom Dewey needed 3 ballots to secure the nomination. The previous multi-ballot Republican nominating battle was in 1940, when Wendall Wilkie needed 6 ballots to secure his place on the Republican ticket.

The Democrats last multi-ballot nomination fight was in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson required 3 ballots to claim his place in history. The previous multi- ballot Democratic contest was Franklin’s Roosevelt’s nomination in 1932, which required 4 ballots.

Since 1960, there have been only three nominating conventions in either Party in which the nominee received less than 62% of the votes on the 1st ballot:

John Kennedy in 1960 – 53%

Gerry Ford in 1976 – 53%

Walter Mondale in 1984 – 56%

Since 1956 the number of delegates to the Democratic National Convention has grown by 304%, while the number of Republican delegates has grown by 137%.

1956 - the two parties had roughly the same number of delegates: Democrats 1372 - Republicans 1323

1960 - the number of Democratic convention delegates had started to grow, while the number of Republican delegates was about the same: Democrats 1521 - Republicans 1331

1972 - the number of Democratic delegates doubled and the Republican delegate total remained roughly the same: Democrats 3016 - Republicans 1348

1976 - saw the Democrat number remaining stable and the number of Republican delegates growing by about 50%: Democrats 3008 - Republicans 2259

2008 - the Democratic total grew by near 50% and the Republican total by 10%: Democrats 4418 - Republicans 2516

2012 - will bring a Democratic delegate pool that has grown by 25% and a Republican pool that has dropped by 9%: Democrats 5552 - Republicans 2286

Electronic coverage of the conventions has grown exponentially since 1844, when news of convention proceedings was sent out by telegraph for the first time.

1880 - Telephone was first used to transmit convention information

1924 – The Republican convention in Cleveland was the first convention to be broadcast on radio

1940 – First transmission of reports by a television station came from the Republican convention in Philadelphia

1948 – First live convention reports were broadcast from the Republican convention

The high point of TV ratings for the Democratic convention occurred in 1960, when the broadcast TV rating was 29.2. The highest rated Republican convention occurred in 1976, with a rating of 31.5.

The chart below shows the number of nights of coverage by the major TV networks at each of the conventions from 1992 through 2012.

Number of Nights of Coverage Major Broadcast Networks

  1992 1996 2000
  Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
ABC 4 4 4 4 4 4
CBS 3 4 4 4 2 2
NBC 4 4 4 4 3 3
  2004 2008 2012
  Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
ABC 3 3 4 3 3** 3**
CBS 3 3 4 3 3*** 4***
NBC 3 3 4 3* 2**** 3****


* Republicans canceled the first night of their convention because of the hurricane.

** ABC will be on from 10-11p.m. Tuesday – Thursday at each convention

*** CBS will be on from 10-11p.m. Monday – Thursday at the Republican convention and 10-11p.m. Tuesday and Wednesday and 9-11p.m. Thursday at the Democratic convention.

**** NBC will be on from 10-11p.m. Tuesday – Thursday at the Republican convention with a possible extension to Monday and from 10-11p.m. Tuesday and 9-11 p.m. Thursday and the Democratic convention (Wednesday night it is broadcasting an NFL football game – it will not be carrying former President Clinton’s speech that evening)

In a change from the practice at recent conventions at which the Vice Presidential nominee has been the principal speaker on Wednesday night, Vice President Biden will give his speech to the convention on Thursday at 9 p.m. just prior to the President’s acceptance speech

Comparison of Combined Convention ratings 1968-2004

(Based on Nielsen combined ratings with PBS added)

    Democratic Republican
2008 (ABC, CBS, NBC)
(CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC, PBS)
22.1 23.8*
2004 (ABC, CBS, NBC)
(CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC, PBS)
15.2 16.7
2000 (ABC, CBS, NBC)
(CNN, MSNBC, FOXNC, PBS)
16.8 15.3
1996 (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS) 17.2 16.5
1992 (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS) 22.0 20.5


* DNC had 4 nights of coverage, RNC had 3 nights of coverage

While TV/Cable network coverage is relatively modest, the thousands of journalists and media personnel that swarm the convention proceedings provide an extraordinary amount of coverage overall to the presidential nominees acceptance speeches.



Is there really a so-called convention bounce?

In 7 of the 11 conventions since 1968 one or both conventions moved the numbers for the nominee of the Party after the convention: 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2008. The most dramatic post-convention bounce came after the 1992 Democratic convention, in which, following the initial exodus of Ross Perot from the Presidential race, Clinton jumped 16 points and Bush dropped 14 points.

For complete data on the bounce or lack thereof from 1968 – 2004 see the Washington Watch for August 2008. In 2008, pre-Democratic convention, Gallup had the race even, with Obama and McCain each at 45%. Following the Democratic convention, Obama led McCain 49% - 45%. Following the subsequent Republican convention, the race switched and McCain led Obama 49% - 45%.


The Debates

The first debate in particular provides a third opportunity for Romney to change the dynamic of this race. This will be the first time that the two men will face one another on the same stage.

One of the more positive happenings of what has been a generally nasty campaign was the effort of three young women who learned in one of their high school classes that a woman has not moderated a Presidential debate since 1992. Deciding that the time had come to change the record, they launched a petition drive which generated hundreds of thousands of signatures. They attempted to deliver their initial petition to the Debate Commission, but were rebuffed. They were not deterred however, and their efforts were rewarded. Candy Crowley of CNN will moderate the second debate.

The following is a bit of history.

From 1976 to 1984 ,the debates were sponsored by the League of Women Voters. Under the League of Women Voters’ stewardship, women made up 43% of moderators.

In 1987, the two parties established the Commission on Presidential Debates. Under the Commission on Presidential Debates, women have been selected to moderate 11% of debates.

Jim Lehrer alone has moderated more than twice as many debates as women have.

Both moderators of Vice Presidential debates sponsored by the League of Women Voters were male. Of the six Vice Presidential debate moderators selected by the Commission on Presidential debates, half were female.

  First Debate Moderator Second Debate Moderator Third Debate Moderator Fourth Debate Moderator
1960 Howard K. Smith Frank McGee Bill Shadel Quincy Howe
1976 Edwin Newman Pauline Frederick Barbara Walters  
1980 Bill Moyers Howard K Smith    
1984 Barbara Walters Edwin Newman    
1988 Jim Lehrer Bernard Shaw    
1992 Jim Lehrer Carole Simpson Jim Lehrer  
1996 Jim Lehrer Jim Lehrer    
2000 Jim Lehrer Jim Lehrer Jim Lehrer  
2004 Jim Lehrer Charlie Gibson Bob Schieffer  
2008 Jim Lehrer Tom Brokaw Bob Schieffer  
2012 Jim Lehrer Candy Crowley Bob Schieffer  



2012 Presidential General Election

At this time in 2000, 42% of Americans said they had given a great deal of thought to the Presidential election. By this time in 2004 that had risen to 69% and in 2008 it hit 70%. Today it is 64%. [Gallup 8/12]



50% say that Obama has a background and set of values with which they can identify. 47% say they cannot identify with his background or values. Juxtaposed with this view, 42% say that Romney has a background and set of values with which they can identify and 52% do not. [NBC/WSJ 7/12]

Based on data collected by Real Clear Politics through August 8th Obama has had a small, but steady, lead over Romney for the last month. The following are survey results from media-related polling organizations. [WW tends to find them more consistently reliable. This is not to say that all non-media sources are not reliable. It is to say that the slant of some non-media sources – left and right – leave something to be desired.]

Survey Last Date Obama Romney
CNN/OpRes 8/8 52 45
Fox News 8/7 49 40
Pew Research 7/26 51 41
NBC/WSJ 7/22 49 43
Fox News 7/17 45 41
CBS/NYT 7/16 46 47
Pew Research 7/9 50 43
ABC/WP 7/8 47 47
CNN/OpRes 7/1 49 46




As noted before, this is not a national election. Below is a list of what are described by many as the battleground States. Obama won them all in 2008. Bush won 8 of them in 2004 and 7 of them in 2000.

Obama leads in 9 of these States at the present time, but only in 3 of them does he hit 50% or more.

It is likely that even now, although it will likely become more obvious over the remaining months of the campaign, the real battleground States are probably a half dozen in number.

  Current Obama / Romney Polling Obama Approval / Disapproval Rating Unemployment New Voting Law 2008 2004 2000 State-Wide Races Competitive Congressional Races
Colorado 49/46* 43/50 8.2   Obama Bush Bush None 2 of 7
Florida 47/48* 46/47 8.6 X Obama Bush Bush Sen 8 of 27
Iowa 48/43 46/47 5.2   Obama Bush Gore None 3 of 14
Michigan 48/42 49/44 8.6   Obama Kerry Gore Sen 3 of 15
Nevada 50/46 45/48 11.6   Obama Bush Bush Sen 2 of 4
New Hampshire 51/45 43/50 5.1 X Obama Kerry Bush Gov 2 of 2
New Mexico 49/44 45/48 6.5   Obama Bush Gore Sen. 0 of 3
North Carolina 49/46 45/48 9.4   Obama Bush Bush Gov 4 of 13
Ohio 44/46* 44/48 7.2 X Obama Bush Bush Sen 3 of 16
Pennsylvania 47/42 46/49 7.5 X Obama Kerry Gore Sen 4 of 18
Virginia 45/48* 46/48 5.7 X Obama Bush Bush Sen 1 of 11
Wisconsin 51/45 49/45 7.0   Obama Kerry Gore Sen 2 of 8


Approval/Disapproval Ratings are from Gallup Daily Tracking, January-June, 2012

All match race poll numbers were the most recent ones available s on Real Clear Politics as of August 16, 2012, excluding polls conducted by Rasmussen.

*These polls were from a set of polls released by Purple Strategies on August 15th. Nate Silver has noted that Purple Strategies tends to poll Republican candidates at 2 points higher than media surveys, and in this set, the candidate leading each state had been trailing in those states in previous polls. However, at least as relates to the state of Wisconsin a CNN/ORG survey comes out at the same place as Purple Strategies.

Unemployment Rates via BLS for June 2012


The Electoral College

Here are cuts at the electoral college that WW will regularly reprint as we head toward the Presidential election. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.

  Cook Cook Cook
  4/24 5/31 7/2
Solid/Likely Dem 182 186 201
Lean Dem 45 45 45
Total 227 227 247
       
Toss Up 101 120 85
       
Lean GOP 19 0 15
Solid/Likely GOP 191 191 191
Total 210 191 206



InTrade Prediction Market

As of 8/15/12, here are the percentage chances that Obama or Romney will win the election. The price per share being bid for Obama shares is $5.67, while the bid price for Romney shares is $4.23.

  1/12 2/16 3/20 4/26 8/15
Barack Obama 50.6 60.3 59.9 60.2 56.7
Mitt Romney -- -- -- 38.2 42.3



Taxes

Through the efforts of the Obama campaign and with the cooperation of the news media, the amount of Federal income taxes paid by Romney has become one of the side bar issues of the campaign.

Romney has declined to release more than two years of his tax returns. He released his 2010 return and has said he will release his 2011 return when it is completed, which must certainly occur before October 15th.

Some have alleged that he paid little or no taxes during some period of years before 2010.

After being bugged by friend and foe alike to resolve the issue by releasing more returns, Romney instead announced that he had paid at least 13% of his income in Federal income taxes in the last 10 years. (The rate was 13.6% in 2010.) And one can be certain that the team vetting his Vice Presidential candidate asked for substantially more than two years of returns.

This places his tax rate at the middle quintile of average Federal income taxes.

  Average federal income tax rate Average Household Income 2009
Lowest Quintile 1% $11,552
2nd Quintile 9% 29,257
Middle Quintile 13% 49,534
4th Quintile 17% 78,694
Top Quntile 23% 170,844


The bottom line -- Romney pays a tax rate akin to a household making roughly $50,000 a year.

This issue is more of an irritant than anything else. It is not going to cost Romney many, if any, votes on election day, whether or not he releases more of his returns. To the extent that there are those who oppose him because of his wealth, there is no question that he is wealthy. And for those for whom this is a voting issue, they will have any other number of reasons to deny him their vote.

In a recent Gallup survey, when asked what the most important problems facing the country are today, of 65% of respondents who listed some form of economic problem, only 1% named taxes.

Now that he has revealed his tax rate, the question being asked is what else is in the returns that Romney is afraid to disclose.

Whatever time he spends responding to badgering on this issue is time he does not spend on those issues which may, in fact, garner him the Presidency. It is hard to understand why Romney did not decide to get rid of this issue months ago.

There is no suggestion that Romney has done anything wrong or failed to file appropriate returns. It is certainly the case that his returns have been prepared by competent professionals.



One of the things working for Obama is that Americans find him more likeable than Romney by 2 to 1. 60% find Obama likeable and 30% have the same view of Romney. However, when it comes to specific domestic issues, Romney is considered to be better able to handle them. On handling the economy and creating jobs, two of the most significant issues of this campaign, Romney leads by 19 points to 10 points respectively. On healthcare , the two men are rated equally.

When asked “whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion” of Obama and Romney, Americans responded favorably to Obama by 54% to 44%. Conversely, Romney is rated unfavorable by 47% while 43% rate him favorably. [Gallup]



Charlie Cook presents an interesting look at the impact of Independents on Presidential elections.

1996 Clinton won Independents by 8% and won the popular vote by 8%

2000 Bush won Independents by 2% and lost the popular vote by .5%

2004 Kerry won Independents by 1% and lost the popular vote by 3%

2008 Obama won Independents by 8% and won the popular vote by 7%

In the second week of August, Romney led Obama 44% to 42% among Independents. [Gallup updated August 12, based on 3 week rolling average.]



90% of Americans say they already “know what they need to know about” Obama. 69% have the same view about Romney. [Pew 7/12]



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