The Congress

The Congress has, for the second time this year, scored the lowest approval rating in the 38 years that Gallup has been asking this question. Only 10% of Americans approve of the job it is doing, the same as it was in February of this year.

In the last year and a half, approval of the Congress has ranged from 24% in May of 2011 to the 10% level at which it is now operating.

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The Senate

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 51
• Republicans 47
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

It is likely that control of the Senate will ultimately come down to the races in Florida, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

If one adds to the list the seats that are safe or leaning, such as the seats in Hawaii, New Mexico, Nevada, and North Dakota, the seat tally is 47 to 47.

Here is how the 33 Senate elections, made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents, look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office). Underlining reflects retirement.



The following Toss-Up list “pushes” the States that are in the Toss-Up category in the direction in which most currently available public polling suggests they are headed. The Toss-Ups of the Toss-Ups are:

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The House of Representatives

There are no non-partisan commentators who are predicting that Republican control of the House is anyway in doubt. Predictions, to the extent they are specific, seem to range from a Democratic loss of a seat or two to a pick up of 5 or 6 seats.

While, in January 2012, potential voters preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, potential voters now split evenly on whether they prefer a Democratic- controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled Congress, and they have had that view for at least the last 3 months. The following are the preferences reflected in the NBC/WSJ survey going back to April 2009.



WW has regularly reprinted the “House Dashboard” published by the Cook Political Report. The data from January 20, 2011 is from the Dashboard. However, the Dashboard is not being published at this time because of the uncertainties caused by re-districting. Therefore, the chart below (other than 1/20/11) reflects the Cook’s current Competitive House Race Chart through April 19, 2012. [As always, thanks to “The Cook Political Report.”]

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Republicans 240
• Democrats 191
• Vacancies 4

“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Report.]

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