September 25, 2012 2:57 PM
The Congress
13% approve of the job that Congress is doing at this time. This is the lowest number recorded at this point in an election year going back to 1974.Since January 2011, approval of Congress has ranged from 24% in May 2011 to 10% in August 2012. [Gallup]
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 51
- Republicans 47
- Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
Assuming that Safe and Leaning Democratic seats end up that way after election day, the Democrats need to win 4 of the TossUp States to have an actual majority, or 3 to gain a majority with the vote of the Vice President.
The number of Safe & Leaning Democratic seats has moved from 15 to 17. The number of TossUps has moved from 10 to 8, and the number of Safe & Leaning GOP seats has remained consistent at 8.
Here is how the 33 Senate elections, made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents, look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office). Italic reflects retirement.
| Safe Democratic (12) | Leaning Democratic (5) | Toss-Up (8) | Leaning Republican (3) | Safe Republican (5) |
| California | Florida | Connecticut | Arizona | Mississippi |
| Delaware | Maine | Hawaii | Indiana | Tennessee |
| Maryland | New Mexico | Massachusetts | Nebraska | Texas |
| Michigan | Ohio | Missouri | Utah | |
| Minnesota | Virginia | Montana | Wyoming | |
| New Jersey | Nevada | |||
| New York | No. Dakota | |||
| Pennsylvania | Wisconsin | |||
| Rhode Island | ||||
| Vermont | ||||
| Washington |
||||
| West Virginia | ||||
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2012 | 30 | 37 |
| Safe in 2012 | 12 | 5 |
| Leaning in 2012 | 5 | 3 |
| Total | 47 | 45 |
| Toss-ups | 8 (2R/6D) |
The House of Representatives
- Republicans 242
- Democrats 193
| 1/20/11 | 6/14/12 | 8/2/12 | 9/13/12 | |
| TOTAL Dem | 193 | 182 | 181 | 178 |
| Solid Dem | 150 | 157 | 156 | 157 |
| Likely Dem | 39 | 25 | 25 | 21 |
| Toss-up | 10 | 24 | 25 | 37 |
| D | 4 | 9 | 9 | 15 |
| R | 6 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| Likely/Lean GOP | 53 | 42 | 41 | 30 |
| Solid GOP | 183 | 187 | 188 | 190 |
| TOTAL GOP | 242 | 229 | 229 | 220 |
“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Report.]
| 1/12 | 6/12 | 8/2/12 | 9/14/12 | |
| Safe Democrat | 166 | 162 | 159 | 162 |
| Competitive | 78 | 75 | 75 | 68 |
| D Favored | 9 | 9 | 8 | |
| Lean D | 10 | 12 | 4 | |
| Tilt D | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Toss Up | 11 | 10 | 15 | |
| Tilt R | 15 | 14 | 11 | |
| Lean R | 13 | 13 | 10 | |
| R Favored | 13 | 12 | 14 | |
| Safe Republican | 191 | 198 | 201 | 199 |
The Money
The following represents the financial activity of the Democratic and Republican House and Senate campaign committees.| DCCC | NRCC | |
| Total raised | $127,140,861 | $115,905,827 |
| Total spent | 87,971,644 | 68,613,198 |
| Cash net of debt | 39,974,841 | 49,830,930 |
| DSCC | NRSC | |
| Total raised | $91,246,116 | $80,984,543 |
| Total spent | 61,157,779 | 52,170,122 |
| Cash net of debt | 30,841,930 | 28,932,736 |
DNC – Democratic National Committee
RNC – Republican National Committee
DCCC – Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
NRCC – National Republican Congressional Committee
DSCC – Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
NRSC – National Republican Senatorial Committee
There are more than 800 Super PACs registered with the Federal Election Commission. Ostensibly, they operate independently of specific candidates. The majority of the Super PACs, have not so far raised or spent appreciable amounts of money in 2012. Here are five conservative and five liberal Super PACs that have raised more than $5 million. Much of their spending will be directed to Congressional campaigns.
| Liberal | Conservative | |
| Majority PAC | American Crossroads | |
| Total raised | $14,621,312 | $47,340,973 |
| Independent Expenditures | 12,020,599 | 28,361,763 |
| House Majority | Club for Growth Action | |
| Total raised | $9,593,780 | $13,841,447 |
| Independent Expenditures | 7,001,972 | 12,229,995 |
| AB21C | CLF | |
| Total raised | $8,633,257 | $6,511,401 |
| Independent Expenditures | 0 | 557,507 |
| AFL-CIO | Freedomworks | |
| Total raised | $7,751,128 | $6,418,185 |
| Independent Expenditures | 577,501 | 5,724,424 |
| NEA Advocacy | YGA | |
| Total raised | $5,010,951 | $5,649,150 |
| Independent Expenditures | 0 | 2,509,220 |
AB21C – American Bridge 21st Century
CLF – Congressional Leadership Fund
YGA – Young Guns Action Fund
None of the above relates to the substantial spending being done by a variety of so-called 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations.
Ultimately, there will be some reporting of what these groups spend to the extent they engage in commercial advertising. However, their expenditures on voter turnout activity will not be disclosed, unless they choose to volunteer that information which is not likely. Furthermore, the names of their donors will not be disclosed.
