Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

October 26, 2012 11:57 AM

Battleground States

Below is a chart of the 9 States which are described as the battleground states. Obama won them all in 2008. Bush won 7 of them in 2004 and 7 of them in 2000. As opposed to the national match race, the availability of reliable Presidential campaign polling on a State-by-State basis is quite modest. The numbers below are based on the current Real Clear Politics averages which include every “cat and dog” that is published. The following chart should be read with that caveat in mind.

At this time:

Obama leads marginally or better in five States
Romney leads in two of these States
Two States are even

While not specifically reflected in the chart below, Cook Political Report reporting of characterizations by Democratic and Republican pollsters shows Obama with leads in six States, Romney in two, and one is even.

Short of some untoward event, the race in these States appears to provide a firewall for Obama.

Unemployment in 8 of the 9 States is lower than it was one year earlier.

  Current Obama/ Romney Polling Current RCP Obama +/- 9/12 Unemployment 9/11 Unemployment 2008 2004 2000 State- wide Races
Colorado 47.6/47.8 -0.2 8.0 8.3 Obama Bush Bush None
Florida 46.6/48.4 -1.8 8.7 10.6 Obama Bush Bush Sen.
Iowa 48.8/46.8 +2.0 5.2 6.0 Obama Bush Gore None
Nevada 49.0/46.0 +3.0 11.8 13.4 Obama Bush Bush Sen.
New Hampshire 48.4/47.4 +1.0 5.7 5.4 Obama Kerry Bush Gov.
North Carolina 44.7/50.3 -5.6 9.6 10.5 Obama Bush Bush Gov.
Ohio 47.6/45.7 +1.9 7.0 9.1 Obama Bush Bush Sen.
Virginia 48.0/48.0 0.0 5.9 6.5 Obama Bush Bush Sen.
Wisconsin 49.8/47.0 +2.8 7.3 7.8 Obama Kerry Gore Sen.

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