The Congress

In the 2nd half of October 21% approve of the job being done by Congress. This is an up ticket from mid-September, when 13% were positive.

It is not clear to what extent votes cast in the Presidential contest affect voting behavior down the ballot for the Senate, the House, or for State and local offices.

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 51
• Republicans 47
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

Control of the Senate appears to depend on the races in Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

Since the last Watch the following changes have occurred. Hawaii and Missouri have moved from TossUp to Leaning Democrat, and Pennsylvania has moved from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat. Virginia has moved from Leaning Democrat to TossUp.

Among the Toss Ups, 4 are currently held by Republicans and 5 are held by Democrats.

Assuming that Safe and Leaning Democratic seats end up that way after election day, the Democrats need to win 3 of the Toss Up States to have an actual majority, or 2 to gain a majority with the vote of the Vice President (assuming Obama is re-elected).

The prospects for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate regardless of the outcome of the Presidential campaign have improved.

Here is how the 33 Senate elections, made up of 23 Democratic incumbents (including 2 Independents) and 10 Republican incumbents, look to me at this time. (D=Dem incumbent in office, R=GOP incumbent in office, I=Ind. incumbent in office. Italics reflects retirement.)

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The House of Representatives

Continued Republican control of the House is not in doubt. On the face of the current composition of the body, it would appear to require 25 new Democratic members for that Party to regain control. In fact, since up to 10 sitting Democrats may lose their seats, the real number is closer to 35. That is not realistic. The Democrats might pick up a net 5 or 6 seats.

By 45% to 43%, registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the election was held today. This is identical to the preference reflected in the December 2011 NBC/WS, but not as partial to Democrats as the preference reflected as recently as August 2012, when Democrats were preferred by 47% to 42%.

Of particular importance to incumbents generally, for the first time in the NBC/WSJ survey since October 2004, registered voters, by 44% to 41%, say that their representative deserves to be re-elected.

The chart below reflects the Cook Political Report’s current Competitive House Race Chart through October 18, 2012. [Thanks to “The Cook Political Report.”]

The U.S. House Of Representatives

• Republicans 242
• Democrats 193

“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Report.]

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The Money

The following represents the financial activity of the Democratic and Republican House and Senate campaign committees.



DNC – Democratic National Committee
RNC – Republican National Committee
DCCC – Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
NRCC – National Republican Congressional Committee
DSCC – Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
NRSC – National Republican Senatorial Committee

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There are more than 800 Super PACs registered with the Federal Election Commission. Ostensibly, they operate independently of specific candidates. Here are five conservative and five liberal Super PACs that have been particularly active. Most of their spending will be directed to Congressional campaigns.



None of the above relates to the substantial spending being done by a variety of so-called 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations.

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